Silver EXPLODES_ Economic Depression Triggered _ BANK FAILURE

Probably within the next few days, going to face a Lehman Brothers moment. They're done. The best investment in the world today. I'm not kidding you. Better than real estate, better than oil, better than gas. It's silver. Because this is going down. I hear you. When this goes down, the rupee goes down with it. The prices of silver are exploding and behind it, it is leaving a trail of destruction that will likely tip the entire world's economy into depression. And just so you guys understand what's really happening, the paper to physical right now on silver is 356 to 1. If we look at the price of silver back in the 1980s being $50, when we adjust that for inflation, that same cost of silver would be $350 today. The amount of suppression that's been going on for the last couple decades in regards to the prices of metals appears to finally be ending. This came out from a Reddit seven hours before I hit record. I live in China. Physical silver is now at about a hundred dollars on all resale markets. The demand is too big. Spot price doesn't matter anymore. So when I hear that, if it opens up and we'll come back at five o'clock central time today to do a live video, but if it opens up at a hundred dollars in China, odds are that that gap is going to be filled in the U.S. The dollar had its worst first half in more than 50 years. Will it continue fast forward to just two days ago? This article comes out U.S. dollar set for the worst year since 2017. The Dixie sitting at 9805, but you see on the bottom left where I highlighted it's down 9.32% over the full year. Silver's skyrocketing so much that even Elon Musk sent out a tweet on the 26th, just two days ago saying this is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes. Coming out two days ago is this article stating that 57% of retail investors expect silver to trade up above a hundred dollars per ounce in 2026. Eric Sprout is saying because of the coming silver squeeze, silver prices are going to hit 250 to $500. Listen to this video where this guy thinks it's going to hit a thousand dollars, and then we'll talk about it. Whatever a thousand dollars U.S. buys you today, that's what one ounce of silver will buy you by the end of this bull market. In 1980, silver hit an all-time high. Let's think about what 50 bucks in 1980 buys you today. If you use inflation data to bring $50 in 1980 through to today, you're looking at $350 an ounce, but don't even sell at 350. And I'll tell you why. Do you really think that the 3.5% inflation data that the government's feeding you is accurate? If it is, how come your Woolies trip has doubled in the last few years? If you use shadow stock data to bring $50 through to today, you don't get $350, you get a thousand dollars an ounce. Mitch Vexler, without giving the viewers any spoilers yet, because we're going to go into all of the reasons why this is happening, and we're going to break that up into two segments. So without going over the spoilers, how high do you think silver is going to get, say, in the next three years? Within three years, it's going to blow past more than likely what everybody's talking about. And I'm not a fan of people flapping their gums without being backed up by math. So shortly, we will back it up with math. But over and above that, I just want to take one step back. Kiyosaki is right. When he's saying that silver is better than real estate, when you look at the rate of return on silver, and then you compare it to real estate in its current situation, where the quality of the asset, the quality of the houses being sold, is subpar, the square footage is shrinking, and the price is going up. It's the equivalent of a shrinking chocolate bar. Quality down, size down, price up. It's a ramification of what's happening economically at mama pop's level, everything that we see and everything we touch. So what we're about to get into is the explanation of the math. And this all ties together. And it's all US national debt, plus unfunded liabilities, plus derivatives. And this will be very interesting, because I've got a graph that's coming up. Oh, yeah. And it's a great graph. And this may be the trade of a generation. We'll get to that, guys. But first, let's go and talk about why this is happening. This article came out this morning, you guys, about an hour ago. This is not good, says Elon Musk, as silver prices soar ahead of China's new export rules. Now, this is going to go over a handful of reasons. And we're not even going to cover one of the biggest things that's happening. We'll save that for the last segment. But reason number one, and pay attention, guys, this is very, very important. China is changing the rules. Starting January 1st of 2026, China will restrict silver exports. That's huge, you guys. To export silver, companies will now need government licenses. Only large state-approved firms qualify. At least 80 tons of annual production, around $30 million in credit lines. This effectively blocks small and midsize exporters. China controls, listen, roughly 60% to 70% of global silver supply. A lot of people are saying, maybe we could talk about this, maybe we won't. But a lot of people are saying that China is weaponizing silver. Maybe that's not true. When China tightens exports, global supply drops immediately. Number two, the silver market has already short supply. Silver has been in a structural deficit for five straight years. That means demand is higher than supply every single year. And this goes over the demand versus supply. The global demand in 2025 was 1.24 billion ounces. But the global supply was only 1.01 billion ounces. Okay, so it's obviously, there's a huge gap. And that gap is 100 to 250 million ounces. Mining supply is not growing. Silver mining is mostly a byproduct of copper and zinc mining. Holy smokes. And new mines take 10 years to build. That's not good. There's no quick fix. Number three, physical silver inventories are collapsing. COMEX inventories are down 70% since 2020. London vaults are down 40%. Shanghai inventories are at 10-year lows. At current demand, some regions hold only 30 to 45 days of usable silver. That's absolutely insane. This price gap means buyers are paying extra just to get real silver. And when we come back live here at 5 p.m., we're going to see if that gap is there. We're going to see if China is still buying. That's what we're going to look at. That's why we're coming back. So make sure you're here at 5 p.m. central. Number four, paper silver is completely disconnected from reality. I want you guys to stop, take a breath, and listen to what I'm about to say. The paper to physical ratio is around 356 to 1. That's insane. For every one ounce of silver, there are hundreds of paper claims. That's why this rush to physical, if even a small percentage of buyers ask for real delivery, the entire system breaks. Number five, industrial demand keeps rising, especially during this whole chip factory, AI, data center war that's going on. The demand is skyrocketing. Silver is not just a safe haven metal. It's also critical for solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, medical devices, chips, things of that nature. Industrial use now makes up 50 to 60% of total silver demand. There is no substitute for silver in many of these uses. Banks and institutions are reacting to supply limits, physical shortages, paper market risk. Silver is not rallying because of fear. It is rallying because a real supply squeeze is playing out in real time. Mitch, leaving out our next segment, which is the short squeeze that's happening, especially in Europe right now. We're not going to talk about how Europe is going to completely collapse. Leaving that out, just looking at those five things alone, is that enough? Again, taking out the total collapse we're about to go over, it's insane. Are those five things alone, Mitch, enough to keep the prices of silver going up? No. What will keep the price of silver going up is the paper having to buy the physical. The problem here is the derivatives. So the derivatives are the same as a third-party counter-risk. What banks have the derivatives? What firms have the derivatives? But the problem with the firms is, even on the derivatives, they're 2%, 3% equity in. So it's the paper that's the problem, not the physical. They have to buy the physical, and they're going to take massive hits. And I'm going to show you in a few minutes exactly how big these hits are, but they're huge. So what you're going to run into is third-party counter-risk to the point where I would not be shocked if somebody was knocking on the door of the Federal Reserve as we speak, because this is going to get blown out of proportion real quick. I had to go to Substack to find an updated report on exactly what's going on with the shorts and the longs. And this Substack from N01, the CME announced on Friday that silver future margin requirements are going up again, effective Monday, December 29th, tomorrow, the third hike in a month. Western silver is trading around $77. That's up 169% year-to-date. And the exchange that's supposed to facilitate price discovery just keeps making it more expensive to play. Now, normally, margin hikes are used to crush the longs holding to the silk. That's the playbook. That's what's happened to the Hunt brothers in 1980. That's what's happened in 2011 when silver touched $49, and the CME raised margins five times in nine days. You jack up the cost of leverage until speculators capitulate and the price collapsed. These people are sneaky. This is showing us U.S. banks versus non-U.S. banks, and this is December 2nd of 2025. On the left are the gross long contracts. On the right are the gross shorts. So the short is like, yeah, the metal is going to go down in value. The long is we're going to hold because it's going to go up in value. And what this is saying, for the first time in a very long time, there are more longs versus shorts for the top row, which is U.S. banks. But look at the non-U.S. banks, you guys. They got 50,000 short contracts, 50,000 contracts that are absolutely getting annihilated right now, and most of them are in Europe. U.S. banks are now net long silver for the first time anyone can remember, not short, long. They're sitting on roughly 18,611 long contracts against the 17,838 short. The net position is positive, 773 contracts. Meanwhile, this is the bad part. Non-U.S. banks, and they're going to assume they're European, are holding the bag. They're net short 42,311 contracts. At current prices, call it $77 an ounce times 5,000 ounces per contract. That's a paper loss exceeding $16 billion. And that's before Monday's margin hike forces them to post more collateral on those underwater positions. The shorts have three options, post more capital, cover at those astronomical prices, or default. So this is going to go into all three. If they post more capital, they're throwing good money after bad. Silver has no ceiling when the physical markets are this tight. Industrial buyers will pay whatever it costs. Central banks aren't selling. The Chinese government just ordered 400 million ounces through state entities. That's half of the annual global mining production in just one order. If they cover, they drive the price even higher through their own buying. A short squeeze feeding on itself. We saw a preview on Thursday and Friday when silver jumped $6 in a matter of hours. Now imagine a systemic covering of 42,000 contracts. That's 211 million ounces. There isn't that much registered silver available on the Comex. You'd blow straight through a hundred dollars. If they default, then we'll find out what happens when major European financial institutions can't meet their obligations on commodity exchange. I suspect the answer involves bailouts and liquidity facilities and all the usual central bank magic. It also involves destruction and forced liquidation and the kind of wealth transfer that makes headlines. Monday's margin hike is interesting for what it reveals about who has power and who doesn't. The CME didn't make this decision in a vacuum. They're seeing something and they're clearing data. They're watching which banks are posting collateral and which ones are struggling. They're calculating counterparty risk. The CME group doesn't care if European banks get crushed. They care about their own exposure. If a major short holder blows up and can't cover, which is going to happen, the clearing house is on the hook. So you raise margins. You force the weak hands to either post more cash or get out. You protect the system by sacrificing whoever can't keep up. When this unwinds, the losses won't be confined to some European bank derivatives deaths. But those banks borrowed physical silver to create the paper shorts. They leased metal from central banks, from sovereign wealth funds, from pension funds, looking for a return on their bullion holdings. That silver is now gone, delivered to India, melted in China, sitting in private vaults in Singapore. And it's not coming back. Mitch, can you now go into your chart and tell us why this problem is way worse than even that substack is mentioning? And that was pretty bad, Mitch. That was pretty bad. What is this chart? How does it work? What does it tell us? Be aware that the substack article is good, but it doesn't denote the difference between a put-call ratio. So there's different methods. The banks, let's say some of them are short, some of them are long. But there's different ways to go short. You can sell a call spread and buy a put. That's called a super bear. You could simply buy a put. You could sell a call. All three of those are short. The problem is inside the put-call ratio are different elements of being short. So the put-call ratio is not necessarily as you would believe it to be. He's right. But you have to understand what I just said in order to realize what we're about to look at in the chart. So what I've done here is this is a futures options. Options are the underlying point. So you can go to gold, which is the futures, and you can buy or sell options on those futures. So in very simplistic terms, and I know this doesn't look all that simplistic, but it won't take that long to get through it. So if you look at column B5, that is the price as of the Friday close. B6 is where the price would have started from. And I did this analysis based on 90 days ago. So within 90 days, this is the damage that would have occurred to somebody, a bank, anybody who was short. So the volatility, and I didn't touch this, this is the original volatility at 13%. The truth is right now we're at double up. We're at 26% to the upside. Volatility usually increases when prices go down. In this case, it's increasing due to the volatility. The fast move up is to the upside, but I left it the same. So the real numbers are going to be worse than what I'm showing. The annualized interest rate of 4.25%. And the original time, this is under B10, the original time that I had in here was 91 days. So this is showing the damage that has occurred up until Friday, Friday, assuming five days left before the options expiration. So then you would go over to column E5, and you'll see in blue that the call price within the last 91 days went up $499. The put price, E7, went down zero. The puts are upside down. They lost, case closed. How much did they really lose? Well, the original cost of the call was $104. The original cost of the put was $101. So as a percent of the spot, the original cost was 11%, but that's what they lost. And then it became zero. But let's look at the actual dollar. So if you go to column I7, the actual dollars of the loss on the put wasn't just the 101. It's the 101 plus the 499. It's really $601 on a $101 investment. It lost 590%. Now, let's talk about the actual damage. So if you go to column O4, a notional value on a gold contract, when somebody is trading it, so one options contract represents 100 ounces. So this becomes $402,000 per contract. That was 90 days ago. Today, it's $452,000. The swing, now, by the way, this has also happened within the last 20 days, never mind last 90 days. I did this to be ultra conservative, just to give you an idea of how big these losses are. So the difference in reality within the last 20 days is up over 12%. But this was just conservative and saying, OK, fine, it's 12% over 90 days. Well, that ends up being, if you're trading 100 contracts, that ends up being $40 million just for 100 contracts. Now, Travis mentioned 50,000 contracts. Well, that 50,000 contracts turns into $20,125,000,000. That's money gone. So right about now, there's probably emergency sessions going on at the Federal Reserve because there are banks in big trouble. And that's when things start to spin out of control. I've mentioned it before. You don't know who the banks are doing business with. You don't know who they're in bed with. This is the third party counter risk. Well, let's take this up to the next level. We know what the downside is that has occurred within the last, call it 90 days, 590%. Now, let's take this out and understand what the U.S. holdings are of U.S. national debt. So the U.S. gold holdings, I'm over on column R4, is 261 million ounces of gold. That's 1,631,000 pounds and 130,000 tons of gold. The U.S. holdings, its actual holdings, is $1 trillion. In today's value, $1,181,000,000,000. The U.S. national debt is $38 trillion. If you say that the gold holdings against the reserve currency should be 40%, well, that would be $15,200,000,000,000 is what that gold would have to be priced at. How much in gold value is that? Well, per ounce, that takes what we have today, I call it 4525, it takes it to 58,237 per ounce. This is just assuming 40% valuation. We hold 40% physical to offset the U.S. national debt. That's it. That doesn't talk about M1, M2, or the unfunded liabilities. This is just straight up U.S. national debt at 40%. Well, what does that do to silver? In history, silver has been 15 to 1. Take 58,000, divide it by 15, $3,882. The point of the matter is, what you're witnessing is a system collapsing. And it's collapsing due to over leverage. It's collapsing due to debt. The U.S. government's got a problem. It spent way too much money on its U.S. national debt. That's a given. The same problem is occurring even on the real estate side with regard to your central appraisal districts by overvaluation and over taxation. So the Federal Reserve and your local school districts and central appraisal districts are a railroad track. One is the left track, one is the right track. They're going down the exact same trajectory together. It is the debt that has caused this problem. And on the trading side, it is the over leverage debt that has caused this problem. Now people are saying, the industrial companies, we don't care. We're taking physical, end of story. They will keep buying because on the value of a car, as an example, the car may only go up $100 and the chips and the parts and the batteries. They don't care about the $100. But on the market, the market cares because they can no longer get the physical. That's when the FOMO sets in, which I believe will probably start occurring at the open tonight. If China holds its $100 value, there may very well be a gap between today and tomorrow. We're going up no matter what. We will be back. Sorry to interrupt, but we'll be back at five o'clock to tell you guys. Sorry, Mitch. All of these things are at play. And it is the fraud associated with every single one of these things, including the Federal Reserve. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, our purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has dropped 97%. Look at the value of your house. Price is what you pay. Value is what you receive. There are now more sellers in the marketplace than there are buyers. Prices will drop. But these are direct reflections of the fraud that has been built into the system for the last 20 years, at least. In truth, pretty close to the year 2000. Things really started to get out of control. Is this going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back and leads the world into a depression? The truth of the matter is every country needs every other country, and they should be working in a unified manner to say, fine, we will revalue this across the board. Now, in truth, BRICS is already doing that. They're going to force the U.S. government to do the heavy lifting then, because the U.S. government will have to make this move first to say, fine, it's 40%, 50%. I have no idea. But in history, it has been 40% prior. So if that happens, that is the valuation that you're looking at in gold, somewhere around 58,000. Our initial numbers were 46,000. But the interest clock has been ticking. Rule is 72. And you can see it for yourself. The math is the math. You're seeing something here that you can't get online. People don't, and this is part of the problem. I'm not interested in talking and flapping my gums. If it doesn't have math behind it, I don't even want to talk about it. This is 100% irrefutable. You can go on and look further down the line. This is ridiculously conservative. I left volatility alone. I didn't touch it. And I went up 90 days, not 20 days. This has occurred in the last 20 days. So what you're looking at is ridiculously conservative. But as you go down the bottom of this, you start seeing the gamma got zeroed out. Theta got zeroed out. Vega got zeroed out. All of these things dropped to zero because the puts became worth nothing. Those people who are on the other side of this, being short in any format whatsoever, got run over. You're probably looking, with regard to the LBMA in London, it's probably within the next few days going to face a Lehman Brothers moment. They're done. You don't need them. If people only want physical, well, you don't need a clearinghouse to be trading paper and pushing paper back and forth. They literally broke the market. And when you're gapping $10 at a crack, you've got to realize you're gapping 10% in a day. I've said that at some point, there may very well be a flash crash and brings it back $5 or $7. But it's nothing more than a buying opportunity. I don't know from what point it will start. I don't know if it's at $100, $110. You're going to get these pullbacks. And it will be violent because that's called trying to basically shake out the market. It's called price discovery. Right now, we don't have price discovery. It's I will pay whatever I can get my hands on, devil be damned. That's what these institutions are doing. They need the metal. So my point is, and to answer Travis's question even more specific, every country has got to be working with every other country to put a floor under this. And it's OK if they say, yeah, we're going to do it with 40% of our reserves. I understand now that Italy is calling back its gold. Something is going to happen here. But they're going to have to go back to some sort of commodity-based standard. Now, you can say it's gold. It can be gold plus silver. It can be gold plus silver plus corn plus wheat. It can be any combination of these things. But the idea that every country can go off in unfettered creation of debt and not be held liable is proven throughout history to be a failing process. It didn't work in Rome. It didn't work in the Weimar Republic. It isn't going to work anywhere else, because at the tail end, those policies that created it were socialist policies. And now we're starting to see the ramifications of socialist policies. Well, and I'm going to just say this now, Mitch. If the viewers, literally anyone that's listening to this, if you're not prepared, there's a high probability you're going to take the hit in the form of your pension or 401k, which are the true bag holders of some of this leverage and debauchery. And I got to get to this last part, Mitch, because I promised a couple of people that have asked me, like, where should I buy silver? Everyone's, where should you buy silver? Where should you buy silver? And I've asked you, should I get a second mortgage, right? Should I get a second mortgage? Now, the answer to those things is no, you should not get a second mortgage to buy gold. Like, everyone knows that, right? But I still have to make this comment because people are still doing it. If you're going to do it and I'm saying, do not do that, do not buy silver on credit. Okay. But if you do, you're probably going to want to do it on like one of these credit cards that has a 0% APR and zero payments and zero fees for the first 10 to 15 months. That also gives you one to 6% cash back. You see that one is a good percent cash back and gives you a sign on bonus. For example, like this card right down here on the bottom, this American express card, 0% APR and $250 back. So if you're going to do it, that's, I'm not saying to do it. I'm saying, don't do that. But if you're going to do that, you're probably going to want to get something like this, but be warned you guys, if you do that, they will charge you crazy premiums. Okay. Here's an example from SD bullion right here on how much it costs per hundred ounces. If you use your credit card. So right now gold's at about 79. Oh my gosh. It's up right now. Look at this Mitch. Holy smokes. It's up to $80. I don't know why that went up. Maybe it's because people ordering right now. That's insane. That was at $79. It's now at $80 and 59 cents, but because it didn't close, it closed below that. You go from $80 to $88. So that's about a 10% markup just for using a credit card. So if you're going to use a credit card, understand if you don't do it the right way, you're going to get absolutely annihilated, which is why I wanted to mention this company right here, which happens to be Walmart. I don't know why this is. Okay. But Walmart is selling a hundred ounces of gold for $700 less than the company I just showed you. Even if you use your credit card, $8,100 right there, that's very interesting. Walmart. When did Walmart get into the business of selling silver? Absolutely astonishing. Other than that, you got to make your own decision. Personally, I see this as an unraveling of leverage unraveling of the dollar. And if it's me, I'm going to try to put what little money and I have pretty much no money. I'm living like I'm broke right now, but I'm going to put as much money as I can onto silver because I believe that is going to continue to go up for all of the reasons we discussed in this video. Other than that, guys, I want you to be back here. 5 PM central because Mitch and I probably Mitch is going to be here. He may be busy working the market, but I'm definitely going to be here and market open because we're going to keep our eye on silver and figure out, is this going to be the next thing? The next turmoil of fraud and debauchery that tips the entire world into economic depression. And having said that guys, if you're out there just trying to navigate this turmoil, you guys already know we wish you luck and we hope you.