Xi Jinping Strikes: Was Zhang Youxia’s Entire Family Detained? Six Versions, One Shock

Recently, rumors that John Yoshia, vice chairman of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission, has been arrested have spread rapidly, giving rise to numerous conflicting versions among the public. The latest reports claim that John Yoshia's entire family has been detained, and that Liu Zhenli and Zhong Xiaojun were also taken away at the same time. An internal notice has reportedly circulated among the CCP's top leadership. Some analysts argue that if Xi Jinping truly wanted to move against John Yoshia, he would need the backing of three separate power centers. Missing the support of any one of them would make it impossible. Among these, one individual is said to play a decisive role. So what is the truth behind these rumors? Join us for today's program as we break it all down. Six Versions of the Rumor that John Yoshia Has Been Arrested An internal notice of the Chinese Communist Party's top leadership stating that John Yoshia was absent from the opening ceremony of a study session for key provincial and ministerial level officials, and was also missing from a regularly scheduled annual event at the National Defense University. More significantly, following the death of Senior General Qiu Fulin, former Deputy Chief of the General Staff, it was reported that the funeral wreath sent in John Yoshia's name was urgently ordered to be removed. These developments further fueled rumors that John Yoshia had been detained. On the platform X, the first account to report on the alleged arrest of John Yoshia was China-Japan political and economic commentary. The account claimed that the matter had already been communicated within the party's top ranks, adding that anyone who doubted it could verify the information themselves. At present, six different versions of the rumor are circulating. Version 1. John Yoshia was questioned by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, CCDI, and the questioning has concluded. According to this version, an anti-corruption investigation traced back to John Yoshia's son, Zhang Wenji. Because of this connection, John Yoshia was summoned to the CCDI for questioning. Liu Jianli, who is also allegedly implicated in corruption, is likewise under investigation, which is said to explain why both men were absent from the opening ceremony. Version 2. John Yoshia was arrested on January 17 at the Jingxi Hotel. It is rumored that Xi Jinping deployed a large contingent of military police. John Yoshia reportedly resisted fiercely, and the scene was described as extremely tense. Version 3. John Yoshia was arrested on the evening of January 19, one day before the meeting. His wife, son, and secretary were allegedly detained, along with Liu Jianli. Version 4. On the evening of January 19, Xi Jinping suddenly ordered the CCDI to arrest John Yoshia. In the early hours of the morning, CCDI personnel, assisted by armed police, reportedly raided John Yoshia's residence. Before being taken away, Zhang is said to have sent an alert through a secret channel to Liu Jianli. Twenty minutes later, Liu allegedly led more than 200 military special forces to surround the detention site. A fierce exchange of gunfire followed. The CCDI forces were reportedly outmatched and forced to hand Zhang over. Liu Jianli then escorted John Yoshia to the heavily guarded August 1 building. The standoff between the Xi and Zhang factions is said to remain extremely tense, with possible developments in the coming days. Version 5. Nothing happened to John Yoshia. All of this is pure rumor. Independent commentator Kai Shenkun reportedly contacted John Yoshia's secretary, who dismissed the claims outright, saying, Nonsense. There's absolutely no such thing. Version 6. John Yoshia, Liu Jianli, and Zhang Xiaojun were arrested simultaneously. However, on January 22, Kai Shenkun later received new information and posted on the platform X, stating, It has been confirmed that John Yoshia, Liu Jianli, and Zhang Xiaojun were arrested at the same time. Also detained was John Yoshia's entire family. The CCP's top leadership has been internally notified. Kai Shenkun further said, I've just heard that Wang Xiaohong's security bureau has been arresting military personnel. Zhang Xiaojun, who had just been released, was taken into custody again. Seventeen people were arrested in one sweep. Because the sources were difficult to verify, he suggested letting the bullets fly a little longer and waiting to see whether John Yoshia would appear at the Lunar New Year reception. If John Yoshia has indeed been arrested, it would mean that Xi Jinping and the so-called Red Families have completely laid their cards on the table. The next act of this major political drama will be how the Red Families move at the critical moment. If they join forces to counterattack, few among Xi's inner circle may dare to resist to the end. In addition, Wu Zuolai, an overseas blogger who frequently leaks information from inside China, also reported that the latest news is that John Yoshia, Liu Jianli, and Zhang Xiaojun, along with many others, have all been arrested. According to commentator Li Dayu, Wu Zuolai's sources differ from those of Kai Shengkun and several others, which makes it all the more striking that both sides are now reporting similar information. In particular, Zhang Xiaojun is widely regarded as a Xi Jinping loyalist, while John Yoshia and Liu Jianli have long been seen as opposing Xi or even acting as a check on his power. That all three were reportedly arrested at the same time is therefore deeply puzzling. Was John Yoshia really arrested? Some netizens remain skeptical about whether John Yoshia has actually been arrested. According to Li Dayu, an ex-account known as Where Does the Heart Return argues that for someone of John Yoshia's rank, any change in his political status would be fundamentally different from the routine promotion or demotion of an ordinary general. Such a development would inevitably trigger shifts in the deep structural layers of the entire power system, and would therefore be accompanied by very visible signs on the surface. In Beijing in particular, one would expect to see sensitive and easily recognizable signals on the streets. Beijing is not only the center of decision-making, but also the physical hub of power operations. When a vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission who wields real authority encounters such a shock, the impact would immediately translate into tangible security upgrades, heightened surveillance of sensitive areas, an oppressive and tense atmosphere, and secrets within the system spilling into every alleyway of the capital. This commentator also raised a second, very interesting point, whether the A-share stock market has experienced a sharp drop. Do people remember that when there were rumors in the past that Xi Jinping had run into trouble, the A-share market, especially defense-related stocks, saw a strong rally? Why? Because everyone wanted to make money and did not want a war over Taiwan, whereas Xi Jinping was seen as single-mindedly determined to take Taiwan by force. According to commentator Li Dayu, if Xi Jinping truly moved against Jiang Yuxia, regardless of whether Xi personally ordered it or not, it can at least be said with certainty that Xi played a decisive role in the matter. Even so, arresting Jiang Yuxia does not mean that Xi Jinping has returned to the center of power. The two should not be conflated. Even if Xi Jinping were able to arrest Jiang Yuxia, that would still not mean he has regained control. That is because arresting Jiang Yuxia requires three indispensable conditions. First, the consent of the party elders. Second, the cooperation of Jiang Shengmin. And third, the possession of damaging evidence, black material, involving Jiang Yuxia or his family. Without any one of these three, it would be impossible to detain Jiang Yuxia. For this reason, Xi Jinping's return to the core of power remains a very distant prospect. Returning to the A-share market, there have been no major fluctuations of the kind seen in the past. Previously, when Xi Jinping was rumored to be in trouble, the A-share market was highly active, with defense stocks surging because people believed a war over Taiwan would no longer be imminent. If Xi Jinping were truly to regain power, the likelihood of a military, forced reunification with Taiwan would rise sharply. But when Xi is no longer in that position, a Taiwan conflict is not necessarily off the table. It is more likely postponed and no longer urgent. At present, the A-share market is relatively stable with no obvious volatility, according to the netizen's analysis, under current market conditions, capital fears political uncertainty, far more than it worries about economic data. Defense stocks directly reflect state will and military power. Once there is a rupture or upheaval at the core leadership level, expectations for the downstream industrial chain, policy continuity, and confidence in the overall situation would collapse immediately, triggering large-scale capital flight and panic selling. Especially if Xi Jinping were to stage a comeback, this would no longer be merely a matter of one general falling from grace, but a fundamental blow to confidence in the CCP's economic outlook. Because within the military, very few people are said to genuinely support Xi Jinping. If Jiang Yuxia were arrested and Xi Jinping were to regain control of the military as a result, it would be a fatal blow to the defense sector. Yet at present, the A-share market has shown no such reaction. There has been some volatility, and defense stocks have seen mild fluctuations, but all of this remains within a normal range. There are no signs of a market collapse triggered by a major political shock. This, in turn, raises an even bigger question about whether Jiang Yuxia has truly been arrested. In addition, according to Secret China, there have been posts claiming that Jiang Yuxia's office at the Central Military Commission has been sealed, and that anyone who knows even a single division-level department head in the military would know that Jiang Yuxia is finished this time. However, this claim appears to reveal its own flaws. Less than two days have passed. Could a division-level officer already be certain not only that Jiang Yuxia has been arrested, but that he is completely finished? Looking at the history of the CCP, in major political struggles of this kind, information is always communicated step-by-step through the hierarchy, with close monitoring of developments within the military. Jiang Yuxia is no ordinary figure. His decades-long entrenchment in the armed forces is precisely what Xi Jinping fears most. As such, these assertions look like overreach, drawing legs on a snake. In the cases of Jiang Yuxia and Liu Zhenli, it is simply not possible to conclude they have been arrested based solely on their absence from a single meeting. To assess whether these rumors are true or false, there is a simple method, which came first, Jiang Yuxia's absence or the rumor that he had been arrested. If the arrest rumor appeared first, and only afterward did people notice that Jiang Yuxia was repeatedly absent from meetings, then the rumor would have a stronger factual basis and be more persuasive. If, however, the absences came first and the arrest rumors followed, then the situation warrants further observation. After all, if the sources were truly that well-informed, there would be no need to use meeting attendance as circumstantial evidence. The news would have been announced directly. This is basic logic. In addition, there is another claim that deserves scrutiny. The alleged reappearance of Zhang Xiaojun, once known as Xi Jinping's top military secretary. Based on the signs so far, the likelihood of Zhang Xiaojun's return appears low. Take the current provincial ministerial-level seminar as an example. Two years ago, Zhang attended a special seminar related to the Third Plenum of the Central Committee. This year, however, he is nowhere to be seen. Not only that, at several earlier meetings, including the fifth plenary session of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the expanded meeting of the CMC Discipline Inspection Commission, Zhang Xiaojun was also absent. Moreover, the handling of Zhang Xiaojun's case was prolonged. In April 2024, he was removed from his post as director of the General Office of the Central Military Commission and transferred to the National Defense University as political commissar. About a year and a half later, he was again relieved of that position. The current political commissar of the National Defense University is Lt. Gen. He Jie, who attended this latest seminar. Zhang Xiaojun's long-term disappearance appears to indicate that he has been completely pushed out of the game. As such, claims that Zhang Xiaojun has resurfaced require far more factual evidence. From the available signs, it seems that both Zhang Yuxia's camp within the military and Xi Jinping's faction are waiting for the right moment, releasing internal information to attack one another. Some of it true. Some of it false. I'm sharing these analyses for reference. Do you think Zhang Yuxia has really run into trouble? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments below. Thank you, and see you next time.