Palantir: A Once in a Lifetime Event is Coming in 2026 (Get Ready)

Palantir just did it again. It shocked the world. It has sent the investing community into a frenzy and it absolutely blew everybody's mind. That is if you're not in the Heroic Academy. Yesterday in the morning time, we all got together about 9.30 a.m. and we talked about Palantir earnings ahead of it. And I basically said, look, folks, we're heading into earnings with super negative sentiment. The stock is basically plummeting 10% in the earnings. Palantir based on history is gonna do what it does every single time, which is beat and smash. That means that this setup is perfect. I think Palantir will have spectacular earnings. So if I had to guess, I think they're gonna go and they're gonna beat and the shorts are gonna get. So what's going on right now, if you take a look, so Palantir over the past few days is down more than 10%, like 11%, 12%, depends on when you check it, right? So when the stock drops into earnings, double digits, usually that price is in a very negative scenario. So this completely flips the picture. So if we would have came into this earnings, I'm gonna explain to you guys how this works. If we would have came into this earnings flying super high, right? The margin of error for us would be very, very small because the results have to be spectacular for you to keep flying high when everybody's already super, super bullish. And what actually is going on because the stock drops 10, 11, 12%. So right now the threshold that Palantir has to meet with these earnings is not as high as it was five days ago because the sentiment essentially has already priced in the worst possible outcome. So if Palantir just slightly beats revenue, slightly beats EPS and gives decent guidance, there is no way it keeps coming down if it came in at negative 12% into earnings. You understand what I'm saying? Right now we're going in super low into earnings that puts me in a very calm state of mind because I'm saying, look, they just gotta beat and the stock is gonna keep flying up that that's probably what's gonna play out, right? It's like, look at the last four earnings, okay? Okay, what happened to the past four earnings and go one by one by one with revenue, one by one by one with margin, et cetera, et cetera, client acquisition, et cetera, et cetera. And then you'll see the real picture. We predicted this, we saw it happen, we were super calm, super relaxed, and that's the benefit of being in the academy. Now, here's the thing, just to say this without sounding like an asshole, if you panic sold Palantir into these earnings because of everything you heard in social media, that means you didn't have the right conviction in the stock, that means you shouldn't have been holding it to begin with. If you wanna be able to hold through moments like this through what happened the past week, you have to build conviction. Now more on that at the end of the video, but let's go over the earnings first because in this video, I wanna show you the most fantastic earnings we have ever gotten from this company and we have gotten some crazy numbers, but this is probably the craziest of them all. In this video, we'll talk about the earnings, I'm gonna break it down, gonna offer my analysis, my investing strategy into the next five years, and of course, my own opinion about everything that's going on social media, where this company is headed because there's a lot to unpack here, there's a lot to learn. If you are a Palantir investor, this video is something you must watch all the way through the end, so don't click nothing, don't smash nothing, don't buy nothing, just listen. So Palantir reported earnings with a 70% revenue growth. That is insane. Now, what's even crazier is that Palantir is literally guiding that this year is gonna end at 60% revenue growth, which is staggering numbers. Now, it hit a rule of 40, of 130 between 140, depends on who you ask. Now, it doesn't matter if it's 130 or 140, this is one of the highest numbers in existence. Essentially, what the rule of 40 measures is empty calories, right? If you have high growth numbers and you're growing sales and revenue and everything's going crazy, but you are not making money, you're gonna be slammed with a very low rule of 40 because the rule of 40 takes into account two things, your growth numbers and your free cash flow margin. Now, they combine them to get a number and strategically, historically, 20 and 20 would be very, very good, which means 40 is the optimum. If you can present a hybrid of 40 between your revenue growth and your free cash flow, then what you're gonna get is a rule of 40 of 40, which is exquisite, chef's kiss. Palantir just gave you 130, 140, which means it is literally three times higher than the best score you can hope for. These are literally video game numbers. If you had to create a company that's a complete cheat code, that would be it. Now, on top of it, we got 140% retention. Now, net dollar retention basically measures how much dollars we have made from existing clients from past year to current year. So essentially every single client have spent a dollar and 40 more than the previous dollar last year. How many companies can show you that for existing clients to spend 40% more? That is insane. That is a very, very good number combined with the rule of 40. These are imaginary numbers. If we were talking about this before Palantir, that would not have been realistic. We would have gotten the comment that this is not real because no company can exist under these parameters, right? Now, if you take a look deeper, the numbers get even better. So Palantir is operating 80% gross margin, which is insane. Now, right now we're running at 1.4 billion per quarter. That number is gonna go up, right? Now, commercial growth in the US is 140% as it was expected to be by me and by other Palantir watchers across social media, not the analysts, but we knew this is gonna happen because the entire US market, the entire tech market is basically obsessing about Palantir because it's literally the only way to apply AI into your business with the safety features, with the regulation and with the efficiency. There's nothing else like that we'll talk about in a second. That's why Palantir is carrying 4.3 in total contract. Basically, TCV is up 140% from last year. So Palantir is essentially refusing people at the door because there's not enough capacity. It's oversubscribed. You can just look at what's going on with the bootcamps, what's going on with the other stuff Palantir is doing. Everybody wants in. Now, this year, they're gonna make $7.2 billion in revenue, which if you follow the history is a significant increase than what we were talking about just a couple of years ago. Now, EPS grew 80% year over year. It's growing 20% quarter over quarter. That's earnings per share. Now, on top of this, if you look at revenue quarter over quarter, it's growing at 20%. Most companies would be happy to give you a 20% annual growth in revenues. Palantir is happy to give you a 20% quarterly growth. From previous quarter to this quarter, revenue increased 20%. These are unrealistic numbers for any other company with the exception of perhaps NVIDIA and Palantir. These are the only two companies who can give you numbers like this. Now, check this out because this is super interesting. Right now, Q4 net income last year, last year, was $79 million, which is impressive, definitely impressive, but check this out. From last year to this year, net income went up from 79 million to 608 million. Net income up seven and a half times in a year. Show me a company that can produce such revenue growth, 70%, at these margins, so that the net income is increasing seven and a half x in a year. You're not gonna find that anywhere else except Palantir and maybe NVIDIA in the good old days before it started kind of mellowing down a little bit. These are unrivaled numbers. You're not gonna find it with any other company. Now, if you look deeper, you're gonna find something even more interesting, right? So the rule of 40 right now is 140, 130, doesn't matter, right? Just 12 months ago, 12 months ago, not that long ago, 12 months ago, the rule of 40 was 81. So Palantir went from 81, which in itself is a spectacular rule of 40 number, to 140. Reminding you again, this is the revenue growth and the free cash flow margin combined in 12 months going from 81 to 140. Insane. On top of it, U.S. revenue grew 93% year over year and U.S. commercial revenue is growing at 140%. So it's showing you that the U.S. commercial growth is essentially driving the bus here. But if you're sleeping on government, wait, because there's other stuff I wanna show you because government is actually probably one of the most misunderstood parts about Palantir right now. So right now, commercial growth for Palantir is 82%. Government growth is 60%. Wanna remind you that a few quarters ago, some analysts were dunking on Palantir because the government growth was not high enough. So it's currently going at 60%. Now, I think that this part, the government growth sector is probably right now the most misunderstood part about Palantir. As much as people starting to get the idea of commercial growth, exponentiality and all that, AI and all that, people still sleep and misunderstand on what's going on with governments. The governments of the world is essentially the most misunderstood part about this business because all of these big countries right now, they're all in a massive arms race. Back in the day, they would build tanks and guns. Right now, it's an AI arms race. They're essentially buying their way into the game because the next warfare is gonna be handled through AI. So everybody's overspending on AI for defense. And name me one AI defense contractor other than Palantir. There is none, Tina. There is no alternative. So government spending is about to go exponential. People still don't understand this. And the only game in town is Palantir. That 60 is gonna go up. It's gonna rival commercial growth, which is gonna create a two-headed monster like we've never seen before. Now, moving on. Check this out. I'm gonna show you a few companies which are monopolizing their own category, their own industry. And I think it's fair we talk about these companies. So in the world of GPUs, NVIDIA is the clear monopoly. Well, let's call it a duopoly with AMD, but right now they're the big boy, right? It's a $4.5 trillion company. TSMC is the monopoly of producing semiconductors, the foundry. It's a $1.7 trillion company. Google is the search monopoly, $4 trillion. Amazon is the cloud leader at $2.5 trillion. Microsoft is the leader in business software, but also a big cloud player with Azure, $3.2 trillion, right? And Apple is the leader in consumer tech, essentially a monopoly on its own. If you do an average of these companies, the average market cap, the average market cap of these companies is $3.8 trillion, okay? Companies that monopolize technology in their own industry, on average, they're about the $3.8 trillion sector, average. If you look at Palantir, which is a monopoly, not a quasi-monopoly like some of these, an actual monopoly because there is no alternative, Palantir is valued at $350 billion right now in the market, meaning that Palantir is 10x cheaper than the average monopolistic tech company in the world right now. Just goes to show you how far we have to go before we get to max potential for Palantir. And I know it's not what analysts are saying. I know that people are over-focused on PE. We'll talk about that, okay? It's not my first rodeo here, but I'm telling you right now, Palantir is still massively, massively undervalued. So Palantir currently has one of the cleanest balance sheets in existence, right? It's a company that's giving you a balance sheet with over $7 billion of cash, with $0 of debt, and a 55% free cash flow margin. There's not a lot of companies that can do that, right? And the remaining performance obligations are almost $5 billion. So at this point, Palantir already has almost $5 billion of work, of sales built into the system before they even sold a single one. That's cheat code numbers right here. And that's just by glancing at the balance sheet, the free cash flow, and the RPOs. Now, by the way, RPOs here don't mean run-pass option for you football lovers, okay? So right now, what we have with Palantir is a quarter that gave us one of the best historical growth and profitability numbers from Palantir. They were impressive to begin with, but that's even better. We have a super scalable business. The rate at which the costs are coming up is minuscule compared to the increase in sales, right? We have an AI explosive growth right now driving Palantir into the stratosphere, because again, there is no alternative. It's not just about the AI stuff for the commercial side. We're also looking at the government side. On the government side, there are incredible opportunities for Palantir. The time on the government side is massive. And with government clients, the business is so much better because we're talking about longer duration contracts. These military DOD contracts, they're for decades. We're talking about large-scale contracts, hundreds of millions a pop, sticky. They're not gonna switch providers every two years. And with national security and deglobalization being one of the main trends for the next five years, this government sector of Palantir literally has a 10X potential for the next four years. Yes, the government business of Palantir can grow 10X in four years because of all of that. You have to understand that humans have a tough time dealing with exponentiality. This is prime example of why most analysts are missing on Palantir still in 2026. So as AI decision-making in business and in the government sector is going to 10X over the next few years, that's obvious. Palantir is the only operating system that can run this safely, securely, on the regulation perspective, on efficiency. So they're absolutely agnostic to who wins AI model wars, hardware wars, which businesses come out on top. Palantir does not care which company dominates which sector. It does not matter to Palantir. They're absolutely agnostic. Companies don't like spending money. CFOs don't like writing checks. If a company is spending on average 140% year over year with Palantir, that means that these companies have no other choice. That means that they are replacing legacy builds with Palantir. They're killing their Frankenstein, whatever they had before. That means that uses expansion is causing more uses expansion. The more you use Palantir, that's the loop. The more you need to keep using it. And the total operating integration of Palantir into businesses is now in a place where it simply cannot be severed. It is now part of the US economy in a way that can be untangled. So Palantir is getting larger deals. It's increasing its customer count, and it has a very lean operating model, which means that it scales and scales and scales, and their revenue is coming up, and the margins are coming up. That's why you see rule of 40 growth from 45 to 68, 206, 240 in just a couple years. But Tom, what about the P ratio? Okay, let's talk about the P ratio, right? So the P ratio is very high. Depends on who you ask. I'm not gonna get into it because to me, the P ratio never matter. Peter Lynch said, and this is a sentence that stuck with me for years, that there is no bad time to buy a good company. Now, the P ratio of the past five years, I heard about this argument day in, day out, day in, day out. But while I was hearing people arguing about the P ratio, the stock price since 2022 did 27X. If you invested in a very high P ratio in Palantir $50,000 just three years ago, you would have had 1.3 million in your account with the high P ratio. Did the P ratio prevent you from going 27X from 2022 to right now? Of course not, because it does not matter. It does not matter. If you're investing in a good company, time is the best friend of a good company in the stock market. None of this is a one-time thing. Like P ratios, they matter as part of an analysis. And there could be situations where a company has a high P ratio that still is extremely undervalued. It could happen. It doesn't happen every day. It's a massive outlier. But when this outlier happens, you have to be able to identify it. You can't be robotic and just say, well, anything above 50P, I'm not touching. That's not the right way to invest in tech. If you're a tech investor, you have to be smart about your decision-making. Now, I promised to explain to you why Palantir is agnostic to whoever wins the AI wars. Imagine the whole AI stack as something like this. You have the GPU builders, cloud providers, storage, API and deployment, monitoring. This is the AI stack. On top of the stack, you have large language models, the chat GPTs of the world, the cloud, agents, open claw, all that stuff, right? So there's a lot of competition in this stack between GPU providers. So you have Nvidia dominating AMD trying to catch up, cloud services, they're competing between themselves, storage, API. All of this is in a massive competition cycle, okay? Some companies will win, some companies will lose, but this layer, the LLM layer, is essentially commoditized already. So this is becoming what I call a USB cable, okay? LLMs are now about to become a full-on commodity. The money will be made here in this stack. But guess what? This whole stack is built on the foundation layer, which is Palantir. There is none of this without Palantir. Without this foundation layer, the operating system, none of this can really be applied to real businesses, which is why Palantir dominates. Now, let me just show you this in another way. So imagine there is a race, and we have all of these competitors trying to get to the finish line to see who wins. The cloud providers are competing, the LLM builders, the hardware builders, the power providers, the cooling, all of them are racing to the finish line. Whoever wins in each category gets to be number one, and in this world, usually the winner takes all in these worlds, right? At the finish line, you've got Palantir sitting, waiting, essentially having popcorn, seeing, hey, whoever wins, whoever of you guys wins, we're gonna have a relationship with. Honestly, Palantir simply doesn't care who wins. Whoever of these guys wins, we're gonna make money with, building an AI system for the next generation. That's as simple as that. And these earnings, if they don't make it insanely obvious to you, then so be it, invest in something else, I don't care. But it's pretty obvious to anybody with some understanding of this business that Palantir is the real deal. Palantir is him. And that's why Palantir has been the main stock I've been talking about for five years. That's why we have it on our top stocks list in my academy for many years, since way back when. That is why we're really good at what we do because we analyze fundamentals, we understand business, and we ignore the noise. This is how you make money. It's really easy to get rich slow in the stock market because all you gotta do is find good businesses and hold on to dear life and ignore the noise, that's it. Now, if you wanna learn how we did all this, how we fund Palantir, how we fund a bunch of other stocks, you are welcome to join our academy, paytony.com forward slash TomNash. We will teach you how to get out of this spin cycle you're on. With mainstream media and news and all this stuff, we will show you the path into proper long-term investing. So you can do the same thing we've done for the past five years, look back and say, oh my God, I'm a completely different investor now. Join us, I would love to have you on. Thank you, go Palantir. I'll see you next one, peace.