The case for gold hitting $6,000 in 2026, bitcoin hovers around $70,000

Hello and welcome to Market Domination Overtime. Stocks closing the day higher here. Our very own Jared Lickery has the latest news. Thank you. We got another record in the Dow, second day above 50,000. And these 18 points, a whopping 18 points is good for another record close. So we move on to the NASDAQ composite up just short of 1% or 207 points there. And the S&P 500 up about half a percent. The equal weighted S&P 500, not up a lot, but that's good enough for a record high right there. And I'm gonna add to that the S&P 400, which is the mid caps and the S&P 600, which was just barely positive, but that's good for a record high as well. Russell 2000, which includes unprofitable small cap companies, that was actually up quite a bit more, up seven tenths of a percent. So let's check in on the large cap sector action. It was a day of tech finally coming back after last week's drubbing, especially in software. We'll take a look at that in a second, but materials also up nicely, 1.3%. Communication services, energy, real estate, those round out the outperformers of the S&P 500. And to the downside, we got healthcare, financial staples, and consumer discretionary. So the retail sector, along with healthcare, not doing too great today. But check out the NASDAQ 100 in the mega cap sphere. We do have a number of outperformers. We got Microsoft and Broadcom each up more than 3%, Meta up more than two along with Nvidia, and Tesla up more than 1%. Meanwhile, Apple and Amazon each down one and a little bit less than 1% respectively. And let's check out the Dow, and we can see a little bit more red here. We are seeing Caterpillar, Cisco, and that looks like it for those that are up more than 2%, aside from the mega caps. But let's take a look at that software. There you go. Microsoft up three, Oracle up nearly 10%, Palantir 5%, and the list goes on. And I did want to show the ARC disruption components, just a subset of them. And I'll put this on an equal weighted view, but looking real nice here. Roblox up 10%, Unity Software up nine, Shopify up five, and so on. I'll finish up with the semiconductors. A lot of nice green here as well. Already mentioned Broadcom. AMD up 3%, and it looks like Lumentum up about four and a half percent, Josh. All right, thank you, Jared. Let's take a quick check of the crypto market now with our very own Inez Ferre. Inez. Josh, a steady day today for Bitcoin. We were watching Bitcoin around the $70,000 level. Look, we saw a big rebound last Friday. However, the derivatives market is flashing yellow signs, so to speak. Traders are hedging their bets to the downside. You may be seeing a consolidation when it comes to Bitcoin right now. And really, prices could move in either direction. So the key levels to look out for is 62,000 and also 76,000. But nonetheless, look, Bernstein Analysts just wrote a note this morning saying that they are still firm with their 150,000 per token target for the end of the year. And they're saying basically that the price movement that we've seen recently with Bitcoin is just a crisis of confidence. Also last week, you had Sean Farrell, Fundstrat, saying that he was buying when Bitcoin was down in the $60,000 level. Taking a look at Ethereum, it's up around 2,100 per token. And also just taking a look at the crypto stocks today. A nice bounce that we've seen with some of these crypto-related stocks. You've got Circle that's up more than 5%. Robinhood also higher today. And Strategy also higher for a second day in a row, Josh. All right, thank you, Inez. It's more green across screen for the metals. Gold and silver jumping alongside the broader market. Joining me now, we've got Philip Strebel, Blue Line Futures' Chief Market Strategist. Phil, great to see you as always. Let's talk about the precious metals. It's been volatile, Phil. We've got gold here. We're back above 5,000. So dip buyers, they stepped in here, Phil. What do you see ahead for gold near to intermediate term, Phil, what are the levels you're watching? I mean, we see a scenario where gold hits 6,000 in 2026. It's really driven by that continued central bank buying, the private investor ETF flows, the Fed easing with that first interest rate cut most likely in June. You know, we saw a setup here today where it looked like it should move higher based upon cross-asset patterns. What people want to really look at is the dollar index, which provided the fuel to reignite the rally. So currently gold has an 80% inverse correlation to the dollar index, which posted a big lower high on the charts. And then you saw treasuries and the dollar, they both fell as the Chinese regulators urged banks to reduce that U.S. debt holding. So we saw 10-year treasury yields come off, and it was that combination of weaker dollar, weaker treasury yields, big boost to the gold market. So let's say, Phil, we're talking, and I say, Phil, you know, I got stocks in the portfolio. I got bonds. I don't own gold. Should I be buying here, Phil? Should I be buying at 5,100? Or maybe there's gonna be a better entry point here in 2026. What would you tell me? Well, I would say that, you know, you want to allocate, I mean, the 60-40 portfolio is just really dead here at the moment. You need to incorporate small slices in your portfolio of key commodities, things like not only gold, silver, copper, crude oil. At some point, you know, Bitcoin allocating some of that, because you'll have more portfolio diversification, and it's gonna benefit you and help you against geopolitical risks and also inflation. So we are seeing quite a bit of widespread adoption with those portfolio flows into it. So I would say that an investor to hold no more than 10% of their net worth in the gold market, but really just starting off with some kind of allocation of like a 1% to 2%, makes complete sense. Phil, I don't know if you saw this one over the week. Bloomberg was reporting data over the weekend showed the Chinese Central Bank extended gold purchases, Phil, for a 15th month. Do you expect that trend to continue, Phil? And when you read that, I mean, how important is that as a tailwind for the kind of bull run and bullion that we're talking about? Yeah, the Central Bank's widespread are diversifying away from the US dollar, other currencies, and they're all increasing their gold reserves. On average, the holdings are about 20%. China's only has like about 8% of their reserves in gold, and the goal is really to bring it up to like 30% across a lot of emerging markets, central banks. So if you look at like India, for instance, their holding of US treasuries has fallen to a five-year low, and what are they doing? They're adding gold, they're adding other alternatives, and taking this, it's just this broader shift by some of the major economies to incorporate gold into their FX holdings because of the fact under Basel III reform, it's a tier one asset, so it's as good as cash or as good as US treasuries. In addition to the metal, Phil, give me your take on the gold miners. What do you see? Well, the miners, they're all doing well. I mean, they have their own challenges because of the fact that they're companies. I always tell people, if you wanna buy gold, why not just buy gold? Buy the futures or buy an ETF that tracks it because of the fact that's what most people are going for. Now, I do understand that people look at leverage and things like that when they're buying these miners. They look at it as long-term call options that don't expire on the markets, but you really gotta be careful when you're picking miners because of the fact it may be listed as a gold or a silver miner, but the reality is is that there's a number of other metals that they are producing out there. You've also gotta look at their debt. You gotta look at inflation. If fuel costs start to go up, if interest rates start to trickle up again, that's where those really have some problems. So we talked gold, Phil. I do want your take on silver because it's been making some wild moves. What do you see ahead there for silver near-intermediate term? You look at the silver, the 10-day average true range, $12.50. That critical support's like $70. Resistance, we're right up against this resistance that we saw before, and we could really open up the door for a move back into the 90s. I mean, they've got a multi-year supply deficit. They've got booming industrial demand. You've got the AI, the EVs, the solar, but one thing that people have to know is that it's important to know that half of the global silver demand is really driven by industrial use, and those higher prices could have long-term negative effects on demand. So high elevated costs make components and solar panels just less economical, so you have this substitution risk that occurs. So when these prices go vertical, it's really important to have a strategy and an exit strategy. I mean, you're gonna reduce your demand for silver, or for jewelry, for silverware, and if you look at the ETF flows, they have not eclipsed those 2025 levels. So there are a lot of things out there to just be aware of. I'm not bearish on silver, but you have to look at both sides of everything. Phil, we got some important economic data this week, right? We got job support, got inflation data. One, what do you expect to hear there, Phil? And two, what could that all mean for the precious metals we're talking about? It seemed like some of the officials were really shooting out some warning signs that this number could come in low. I mean, the consensus is like right around 69,000, but I'm seeing independent forecasts that are just south of 50,000. That could help push up, push down those yields, and then also boost up the gold and really put some pressure on the dollar. We will have that inflation data, and you are seeing a bit of elevation in some of the energy sector, but I don't think it's enough to really push things up and have any kind of widespread caution out there in the market. Finally, Phil, because I'm curious, I don't think I've heard it yet, Trump's pick. Trump has said, you know who I want running the Fed? Kevin Warsh. That's my guy. I'm just curious, Phil, you heard that. What did you think? You like that pick? I know, when they announced it, you saw the price action in the market. It said they were really coming out that he was hawkish. He's against quantitative easing and things like that, but I think that the reality is that the models that they're incorporating will be able to better time and better make some adjustments to monetary policy than some of the things that Jerome Powell is using, and I think that that's that kind of shift of having some new elements in there, working closely with Scapa Set. I think that they could really get the job done, and we'll see much more aggressive interest rate cuts. Phil, as always, we are lucky to have you on the show. Thank you, sir. Thanks, Josh. Coming up, from AI to GLP-1s, we look at what ads won at the Super Bowl this year. As expected, tech and AI dominated commercials for the 2026 Super Bowl, but what worked well and what missed the mark? Here with a closer look now, we got ad age creativity editor. That would be Tim Nudd. Tim, it is good to see you. Maybe to start, Tim, just big picture, why do brands, Tim, get so excited about the Super Bowl? Such a marquee event for marketers. Is it, Tim, is it just the sheer volume of eyeballs? You know, is it the type of eyeballs, the demo? Is it the engagement? Walk me through it. Yeah, I mean, it's the scale, obviously. It's 100 million plus people, and also it's just a fun, exciting night. You know, people are all about the advertising. When the spots come on, people pay attention, so it's a completely different environment than any other day of the year, and brands love it. You know, as many brands, if you're a CMO, you want to be in the Super Bowl. You probably don't have budget for Super Bowl, but the ones who do, it's a fantastic evening. What makes an ad often work? Can we kind of boil it down to one or two trends, themes? You know, is it the celebrity appearance? Is it humor? Is it some combination that resonates and hits folks? You know, I think it's simplicity, either simplicity of the idea, simplicity of the presentation. You know, there's very few ads that break through on the Super Bowl that are complicated. People just don't have time to sort of take in complicated. They're usually at parties. You know, they're sort of half paying attention, so if you look at all the great Super Bowl ads over the years, it's really been the ones that have been super simple, and I think that was probably true last night as well. All right, so keep it simple. How much, Tim, does a Super Bowl ad cost, and do we have kind of line of sight into ROI on all that spend? You know, this year I think it was about nine million for 30 seconds, which is kind of crazy, and you know, to answer your question, no, I don't think there is a clear ROI. You know, this is a real awareness sort of reach play. Very few brands pitch specific products in the game because often that's too complicated of a message, so really you're just trying to build fame. You're trying to get your values across. You're trying to entertain people, and those are sort of, you know, soft targets, so it's very hard to measure ROI. However, brand building, you know, is so important. Distinguishing yourself from your competitors on the brand side is critical, and that's, you know, Super Bowl is wonderful for that. So let's talk about what worked, Tim. You say your top AI ad this year, you're probably not alone here, you say it was that Anthropic ad. How come, Tim? Well, listen, AI is kind of usually pretty pie in the sky. A lot of companies that do it are looking to the future. They've got these grandiose visions, and I think what was great about Anthropic was, you know, it was funny. It was kind of sarcastic. It kind of acknowledged, I think, people's fears about AI, and it really zeroed in on a very specific thing, which is that Anthropic's competitor, OpenAI, has just today, I think, in fact, started serving ads in chat GPT. So what this ad does, it takes a very specific situation. People generally don't like ads. They don't want to be served ads. This ad, you know, the Anthropic spot has very little to do with what Anthropic really does or is or could be. It's really about just punching up at the competition. It's a great challenger brand play. I think the ads are hilarious. There's four of them at 60 seconds online. They ran as 130 in the game, and yeah, I think it was just wonderful for having a very specific point of view, very simple point of view, and to me, the comedy really broke through. Yeah, I mean, you couldn't help but sort of noticed, Tim, the broad resemblance there between the guy and the ad, and I think Sam Altman, I mean, you couldn't help but land it right there. On the other side, speaking of Sam Altman, OpenAI, now that one, you think, Tim, it kind of came up short. Why? Why did that, in your opinion, sort of kind of miss the mark? Yeah, you know, I think this was an example of an ad that's really just sort of a montage of images. It doesn't say anything very specific. It's sort of aspirational, but it's unclear kind of who it's for. I think they really, you know, this is obviously the message they wanted to send, which is, you know, humanity is heading in this wonderful direction. Our product can help you. But to me, you know, it just didn't have a very specific point of view or something to say, unlike what Anthropic did. So I think this one, and most of the AI ads on the game, honestly, were not super targeted, and I just think they lost the plot a little bit. You know, people are not that comfortable with AI. They want to be sort of reassured about it, and, you know, looking at it through this lens of like it's going to change humanity, I don't know, to me, that kind of rings a little false for most viewers. This particular ad promoted Codex, which is a new app that OpenAI has. Maybe it's wonderful. It probably is. I'm sure it's super powerful, but I don't think it really connected with people in the way that the humor of Anthropics did. How about Coinbase, Tim? How did that score on the Tim Nudd scale? You know, I actually love Coinbase. Listen, like the thing about Super Bowl lately is every marketer, almost every marketer has the same playbook. You know, these very, very familiar, throw five, 10 celebrities in the commercial. This took a completely different tack. You know, this is a 60-second ad. The first 53 seconds are unbranded. It's really, it's Backstreet Boys karaoke. I think a lot of people joined in. It was just meant to be for fun. I'm not going to say that this ad was the greatest success of the evening. I think once the Coinbase name popped up, some people were a little deflated. But listen, it's unlike any other Super Bowl ad that you saw last night. It pops off the screen because the visuals are so janky and weird, unlike the high gloss of everything else. And you know, I love it. I love seeing any brands that want to take a risk. Very few brands do that. Coinbase had the bouncing QR code four years ago. I don't know if you remember that one, but also very unusual. So, you know, kudos to them for trying something different, whether it worked or not. All right, it wasn't just crypto and AI, right? You also have, you got the classics, Tim, right? You got the beer and potato chips. Budweiser and Lays, how'd they do? Winners, in your opinion? Absolutely, they did wonderfully. You know, a big part of Super Bowl is these heartwarming ads. Budweiser has nailed it for, jeez, what, 30 years now? I think this is one of the best Clydesdale ads they've ever run. They went away from Clydesdales for a couple of years, and it's no surprise to me that they're back. Everybody loves the familiarity of these horses. This had a lovely, you know, America 250 kind of tie-in with the Eagle. It's got, you know, it's the bird story. It's sort of a retelling of the puppy ad they had about 10 years ago that was super popular. So I really like this one. I think it won the USA Today Ad Meter, which is a ranking that a lot of marketers look at. And then Lays also, you know, it tells a family farm story. Really wonderfully shot. Taika Waititi shot this one. You know, very nostalgic. Wonderful, great pacing on the storytelling. Just a great family story. And, you know, a lot of viewers on Super Bowl really want this kind of stuff. So it's either this kind of stuff or comedy. Those are the two things that sort of break through usually on Super Bowl. And when it's done well, you know, these spots the day after, you know, a lot of people are talking about them. How about Michelob Ultra and State Farm? Because it doesn't sound, Tim, like you love those ones. You know, I didn't love those ones. And it's a shame because those two marketers are usually really great at what they do. You know, like a couple of years ago, State Farm had the Arnold Schwarzenegger ad. It was wonderful. Last year, they had the Batman versus Bateman one. I think this one just kind of fell short. And Mic Ultra, to me, I know it did quite well on the Ad Meter as well. To me, it was just kind of a mishmash of, you know, celebrities, athletes. You know, you had the Kurt Russell sort of bringing back the Miracle character. To me, the pieces didn't really fit together that great on this. I think they're trying to be, obviously they're trying to be Super Bowl and also Winter Olympics. This ad's gonna air during the Winter Olympics as well. So I guess it has all the strategic parts they were looking for. But to me, no, it didn't really quite break through. I didn't really, I think it was just a little bit of celeb overload in this one. Tim, appreciate that rundown and that summary. Thank you. Appreciate you. Thank you for having me. Time now for to watch Tuesday, February 10th. It's another big week of earnings here in the pharma space. AstraZeneca is reporting. We're gonna also be hearing from Spotify, Robinhood, and Lyft. Ford earnings also in the spotlight on Tuesday. Analysts not anticipating Ford's results to deliver a big upside surprise after a hit to F-Series production late last year. Tighter dealer inventory is helping limit discounting on Ford's highest margin trucks, but a big focus will be on the outlook, especially how quickly F-Series production normalizes and whether improving supply sets the stage for better results in 2026. Coca-Cola also reporting Q4 results on Tuesday. Wall Street is looking for mid-single digit organic revenue growth, driven by pricing power rather than volume. Analysts expecting Coca-Cola's margins to hold up well, helped by cost control. Investors will also be listening for updates on re-franchising plans next year and the status of its ongoing IRS litigation. On the Fed front, we're getting fresh commentary from a couple of Fed presidents as markets continue to debate how patient policymakers can be with rate cuts and delayed data on jobs and inflation rolls in throughout the week. And finally, it was a key read on the consumer. That's coming out on Tuesday with U.S. retail sales. Congress forecasting total retail sales for December to slow to 0.4% and core retail sales holding steady at 0.4%. That data helping investors gauge if consumer spending is showing any meaningful signs of strength. Well, that's gonna do it for today's Market Domination Overtime. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage. Leading up to and after the closing bell, but don't go anywhere. On the other side of the break, it's asking for a trend, and I've got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market-moving stories. Stay tuned.