Texas Republican Primaries Will Determine ‘Who Has the Most Intensity’: Analyst

And thanks to Daniel for that report. Early voting for the Texas primaries started just yesterday. The most high-profile race is that of Republican incumbent John Cornyn. He's trying to fend off a very well-known attorney general, Ken Paxton, and second-term congressman from Houston, Wesley Hunt. Joining us now for analysis is Bholsala Kabbalah. He's professor for political science at Tarleton University in Stephenville, Texas. Dr. Bowe, it's good to see you, and thank you for joining. Typically, an incumbent is not primaried by his own party. So what's going on with Cornyn facing not one, but two very formidable challengers? Absolutely. Well, thanks for having me. Good to be with you. You're absolutely right. The last U.S. Senate primary was 11 years ago. So given the incredible power of incumbency that comes with a U.S. Senate position, this is a rare thing. Here, in this case, I think the grassroots have had questions about Senator Cornyn's activism on the conservative side. So that's really driving this. Ken Paxton, also very popular in terms of some of his policy positions, being willing to take on the Biden administration. And so I think you see that confluence of factors. Now, can you share more on the three Republican candidates and how they align inside Texas as well as with President Trump's agenda? Absolutely. If I were breaking down the primary electorate, by the way, two weeks of early voting headed into the March 3rd primary, putting Texas in that middle lane of states, I would suggest three groups in the primary voting blocs. You've got your heavily grassroots activists, MAGA-aligned folks. You maybe have more Chamber of Commerce in second place, institutionalist-friendly conservatives. They're going to move a little more towards Senator Cornyn, I think. And then in third place, you've got, and you see supporting Sid Miller in another one of the races, your rural Republicans who are going to favor the incumbent. So Congressman Wesley Clark, as well as A.G. Paxton attracting more of that activist MAGA group, even though Senator Cornyn has also voted with President Trump much of the time. I would suggest that's the breakdown. And Paxton, of course, has some national headlines because of some of the things that he's done that have gotten him into the national spotlight. But the other challenger, a very much a decorated military person and has a lot of grassroots appeal as well. Do you have any signs as of now as to in this three-way race, who will come out on top? Well, that's right. And so Congressman Hunt, decorated veteran, also appealing to the more grassroots activists part of the party. The latest poll, University of Houston, interestingly, surveying this three-way race shows A.G. Paxton up by one percentage point. And so remember, primary elections are not about persuading anybody. It's who shows up, who has the most intensity. So some things to watch just in terms of how close does Attorney General Paxton get to 50 percent. versus suburban breakdown here if he's supercharging in rural counties. But Senator Cornyn and Congressman Hunt are splitting the suburban vote. It'll likely be a more competitive runoff. My guess is March 3rd, we will have a Senator Cornyn-A.G. Paxton runoff. So that suburban-rural split will be very telling headed into the runoff on March 3rd. As we sit here on the East Coast, Texas is just this enigma. You think of it as just one thing, but what you're describing is you have urban centers, you have rural areas, you have the cattle ranchers, just a completely diverse state. And it's a booming state. And in some ways, the counterbalance to California has the MAGA movement or Trump himself weighed in or what, you know, what are what is the Trump perspective on this or is he just sitting on the side waiting for someone to emerge? Well, that's what makes this so interesting is President Trump currently has not endorsed on the Republican side in this Senate primary. Any of the candidates, Congressman Clark appealing to Trump voters, Ken Paxton clearly is. But Senator Cornyn has voted with President Trump a majority of the time. So that's what does make this fascinating. The president has not decisively selected any of the candidates. Let me add to the categories you're mentioning, rural, urban, you've got suburban, you've got exurban. And some of the MAGA dynamic is not just in the rural areas. You've got it in suburban churches. You may even have it in pockets of, you know, Houston and San Antonio. And so my prediction here, despite some of the ethics questions that have dogged Attorney General Paxton, this goes to a runoff on May 3rd. I don't think anybody will get 50 percent in this first round. And then we're looking at a AG Paxton, Senator Cornyn runoff. Absolutely. And then almost like a victim of its own success, similar to Florida, and even in some ways Bozeman, Montana, you have plenty of blue voters moving for economic reasons. And that starts to shift the state a little bit. Austin seems very much blue. And that's, of course, the state capitol. So can you break down the Democratic challengers and what their prospects for one of those two challengers to potentially upset the Republican incumbent or new Republican nominee? Sure. And in terms of, you know, the most high profile race here, you know, clearly this, you know, Senate race in the fall, we have Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. So at the national level and she is taking on Jim Tallarico, challenging her very different styles and policy positions in some ways. Jim Tallarico has been serving in the House in Texas. He's probably aligning with more faith based rhetoric, presenting himself as, you know, the son of this minister. She openly characterizes herself as a street fighter and probably more aligned with the Democratic Socialist wing of the party. So neck and neck at the moment, the polling appears, you know, very even. And it's it's anybody's guess whether Democratic primary voters will put their money maybe on the more moderate candidate that would be Tallarico or embrace the more activist possibility. Yeah. Very interesting. Just like a national presidential election. What helps you in the primary could hurt you in the full runoff. We'll have to see. We're watching with great interest, Dr. Mo Cabala. Thanks for breaking it down. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it. Thank you.