Will Trump’s State of the Union Help Republicans in the Midterms? An Expert Weighs In

Welcome back. I'm Tiffany Meyer. Looking ahead to this year's November midterms, how well positioned are Republicans in Congress and does President Trump's State of the Union address help? Joining us now is Luke Knichter, Professor of Presidential Studies at Chapman University in California. Professor, thank you so much for joining us. Great to have you now. The State of our Union is long. President Trump delivering a very lengthy speech Tuesday night. A lot of memorable moments, a lot of medals. What stood out the most to you that night? I think what stood out to me, first of all, it was long. I felt like I got sucked into it. It didn't feel as long as it really was. But I think what stood out to me was that this is a different kind of State of the Union. This is what a State of the Union is like. We haven't had a president with two non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland. And so a lot of the speech was dedicated to review, a review of things that have occurred in this term, but also going back to the first Trump term. And I think the overall message I take away to voters, which I think President Trump is hoping is successful, is these are the reasons to continue voting Republican. And these are the reasons to stay tuned in, you know, all the way to November and to maintain those Republican majorities in the House and the Senate. And on that note, how effective was the president's State of the Union speech in putting the Democratic Party on defense? Oh, I think it was enormously effective. I think especially the very last part of the speech, when he refers to the 250th anniversary of the country, I think was maybe the most poetic moment that I can recall in a Trump speech. Of course, on the other side, he's going against the weight of history. Presidents typically lose support in the House or the Senate in a midterm election. I don't know whether historically we should think of this as his first midterm term or as his second or something else entirely. But he's so ordinarily presidents lose the House or the Senate. But of course, President Trump is no ordinary political leader. That's a good point. And a striking moment was when President Trump asked the room to stand. I actually want to play a bit of that now. So tonight I'm inviting every legislature to join with my administration in reaffirming a fundamental principle. If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support. The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens. And Professor, how could that visual of the Democrats remaining seated there play out in the midterms? Could it hurt their chances or are the midterms still too far out? I think actually the example there you selected is a really a perfect analogy for where we're at in politics. I think Republicans, they see how can both parties not stand up, you know, for such a common sense statement, you know, as was made there. And I think for many Democrats, it's, you know, there's no cost too high to bear to try to obstruct everything that President Trump does during his remaining time in office. I think the real question for us between now and November is how do moments like that translate to the heartland, you know, and to voters. And I want to dig into the topic of immigration. Today a new poll shows where Democrats stand on the issue. Let's actually play a clip of that now. This I think is so important to note. After all the events in Los Angeles, after all the events in Minneapolis, after all the events of the last year on immigration, can Democrats actually take advantage on this issue? And a look at the polling suggests actually, no, they're in a worse position, in a worse position than they were at this point during Donald Trump's first term. Take a look here. Trust which party more on immigration in 2018 Democrats had an edge of about six points. You come over to this side of the screen now. Look at that. Republicans are the ones who have actually have an edge on immigration. Professor White, do you think that is? Oh, it's a fascinating issue. I think most of the time we would say it's the economy that's going to be number one. But this is one of those wildcard issues that could really remain unpredictable in the coming eight months. I think, again, I go back to how do most Americans feel about this in the heartland? You know, not in not in in the news studios. I think, you know, I think there's probably room between the polar opposite positions between there should be no border, there should be no ice. And on the other hand, you know, that ice can do no wrong. I think most Americans agree that we should be a nation of laws. And what I'm looking for is, are there any politicians on either side of the aisle who can step forward and compromise and figure out how do we move forward? As you mentioned the economy, I want to talk about affordability. That was the main line in the Democratic rebuttal. Now, President Trump talked a lot about the economy. Do you think Americans share his views on the state of our economy? You know, the American electorate is notoriously fickle. The trouble is, you know, frequently what they have in mind when they go to the polls is what have you done for me lately? And, you know, you can solve the price of gas today and you can solve the price of eggs tomorrow. But then people are going to forget that in a month or two. And their focus will be, of course, turned to something else as life for most of us does. And so I think that's the challenge for President Trump, is a lot of these statements and a lot of the review that's in the speech. You know, some people are going to remember those points from last year or even from his first term. But a lot of people aren't. And come October and November, they're going to want to know what have you, you know, how am I feeling then? And what's going on today or in the last year is going to seem like ancient history. And expanding on that, Professor, if they want to win over swing voters, how should the Republicans and Democrats tackle the issue of the economy heading into the midterms? It's really tough. You know, on the one hand, as we said, you know, the incumbent party in the White House normally loses support. Trump, of course, is no ordinary politician. It's much easier to run as an insurgent and get lots of attention and energy. But the problem is when you're defending your party in the midterm, you've become the status quo. You've become the establishment. And it's much harder to keep that energy level high and to convince your supporters. But I still really need you to turn out, you know, this fall. And of course, plenty of elections have been decided by razor thin majorities. And if only it hadn't rained in a few precincts, the outcome could have been enough to make a difference. So I think I think for Republicans, it's going to take a gimmick. We've heard talk of maybe a midterm convention. I think in lots of past elections, there's been October surprises. I think people on both sides are going to need fresh ideas and both parties are not going to necessarily be able to rely on past positions and past statements of opposition to drive forward all the way to November. As you mentioned, a lot to watch for here. Professor Luke Nichter, thank you so much for joining us. My pleasure.