Gunshots in Beijing Zhang Youxia s Commander Leads Coup Xi s Sister Detained

On the fifth day of Lunar New Year, when families across the country were reuniting in celebration, Beijing was shaken by rumors of gunshots and troops carrying live ammunition marching toward Zhongnanhai. A military coup by the army? Commander Li Chaoming issuing an ultimatum? Or a life-and-death power struggle between Xi Jinping and the party elders? As unusual signs emerged within the military, cracks also began to show on the propaganda front. Hu Jintao resurfaced through an old audio recording, Wen Jiabao was rumored to be furious, and the Xi family unexpectedly found itself caught in a swirl of restrictions and investigations. These scattered pieces now seem to be forming a larger picture, a confrontation that may have reached its breaking point. Could this be the warning bell of an unprecedented political upheaval? Let's dive into the analysis in today's program. An army coup? According to Daxijiu, a source revealed that shortly after 7 a.m. on the fifth day of Lunar New Year, a large number of soldiers carrying live ammunition were seen urgently marching toward Zhongnanhai. Many wore combat uniforms in different colors, moving in tight formation with a palpable air of tension. A substantial number of military vehicles and armored carriers were also reportedly deployed. Some accounts even suggested that certain battle-ready troops may have turned their gun barrels around, raising the possibility that a coup could be unfolding in Beijing. The source further claimed that the faction holding real power within the military, led by army commander Li Qiaoming, had initiated the coup. However, such claims must be treated with caution. Li Qiaoming, born in the 1960s, is widely regarded as a key military ally of Zhang Muxia. He is considered one of the younger generals with real authority and was strongly protected by Zhang Muxia during Xi Jinping's sweeping purge of the armed forces. Yet it remains unclear whether Li currently retains his freedom of action. Political commentator Chen Pocong has suggested that unless Li Qiaoming had been sidelined but not fully stripped of his freedom, returning to a barracks or military base and issuing a secret mobilization order in his capacity as army commander. The possibility, while slim, cannot be entirely dismissed. Regarding the Zhongnanhai coup rumors on the fifth day of Lunar New Year, Chen Pocong also proposed another scenario. Forces loyal to Zhang Yuxia and Liu Zhenli may have clashed with troops from the Beijing garrison, which are considered loyal to Xi Jinping. At present, Chen Yuan, former commander of the Shanghai Armed Police Corps, is concurrently serving as commander of the Beijing garrison. Online rumors allege that Chen Yuan bore responsibility for the death of former Premier Li Keqiang, potentially leading to dissatisfaction within the Beijing garrison ranks. Meanwhile, the Central Guard Bureau, overseen by Cai Qi, may not be absolutely loyal to him. Adding further complexity, there have recently been reports of tensions between Xi Jinping and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong, with even rumors circulating that Wang is suffering from political cancer. This raises the question, could the Ministry of Public Security and the Central Special Service Bureau under Wang Xiaohong have clashed with the Central Guard Bureau under Cai Qi? At present, such possibilities cannot be ruled out. Commentator Zhang Tianliang argues that if anti-Xi forces were to attempt a coup, they would first have to seize control of both the Central Guard Bureau and the Beijing garrison. Otherwise, the difficulty would be extraordinarily high. The Central Guard Bureau reportedly numbers over 10,000 personnel, equipped with air defense systems and missiles, stationed in Shishan, Zhongnanhai, and other key areas. It is responsible not only for protecting but also monitoring senior party elders. The Beijing garrison, with its formidable strength, would wield significant deterrent power over any units attempting to enter the capital during unrest. That said, anything is possible. Veteran analysts suggest that the internal power struggle at the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party has reached a breaking point. Xi Jinping and the party elders, including influential red second-generation figures, have effectively drawn their bows. Unless the Xi Jinping faction is thoroughly dismantled, opposition figures may find no path to a safe retreat. Additionally, commentator Jiayang flames that Li Qiaomeng may have been provoked by Xi's reported intention to bring Peng Liwan into the Central Military Commission, prompting Li to send a secret ultimatum to Xi. First, the leadership of the Central Military Commission must not consist solely of Xi Jinping's loyalists, and certainly not Peng Liwan. Instead, it should be composed of compromised candidates from multiple factions. For example, Hu Chunhua, serving as first vice chairman of the commission, and Li Qiaoming as second vice chairman, in order to stabilize the overall situation. Second, Xi Jinping must either voluntarily retire at the 21st Party Congress, or the military would dispatch forces to escort him into retirement. Of course, none of these revelations can presently be independently verified. Yet, factional tensions have never truly subsided, and the possibility of military upheaval, however uncertain, cannot be entirely discounted. Xi's sister under house arrest. Is trouble brewing for the Xi family? On February 18th, independent commentator Kai Shengkun revealed in a post that Xi Jinping's elder sister, Qi Chaoqiao, had moved into the Shenzhen Yingbin Guesthouse and was prohibited from leaving. According to an email sent to Chai by a viewer, several months ago, a business person acquainted with Qi Chaoqiao was summoned by the Discipline Inspection Commission and questioned about whether any benefits had been transferred to the Xi family. Some individuals with only loose connections to her reportedly panicked to the point of deleting her from WeChat. As they put it, something is about to happen to the family. The email stated that Qi Chaoqiao had stayed in Beijing for an extended period last year, but sometime after November, she relocated to the Shenzhen Yingbin Guesthouse and has since been barred from going out. The source also claimed that staff members who had previously been free to move about were, after accompanying her to Shenzhen, likewise confined to the hotel, unable to have contact with the outside world for months. Although the authenticity of this information cannot be verified, Kai Shengkun offered two lines of analysis. It is unclear who issued the order. Was it Xi Jinping himself, seeking to protect his family and instructing them to keep a low profile? Or were anti-Xi forces imposing restrictions on his relatives? Yet as individuals who once depended on or were closely tied to the family have reportedly begun to encounter trouble one after another, it gives the impression that the family may have lost its former power. Kai added that internal infighting within the Chinese Communist Party has grown extraordinarily intense and no one knows how events will unfold. Even those close to Qi Chaoqiao reportedly have no idea when or whether the restrictions will be lifted. However, Kai suggested that when considering the timing of the businessperson's interrogation alongside the recent sudden detentions of figures such as John Yoshiya and Liu Zhenli, he leans toward the possibility that Xi Jinping himself has implemented a comprehensive protective lockdown on his family and close associates, fearing they might suddenly be targeted or face unexpected incidents outside. Kai further warned that if Xi Jinping were to lose in the internal power struggle, his entire family could be taken down in one sweep, as some overseas independent media have speculated, because they have made too many enemies over the years. Yet commentator Li Muyong offers a different view. Judging cautiously from various signs, he argues that this does not look like Xi proactively protecting his family. If it were truly for protection, simply strengthening security and assigning additional guards would suffice. Why impose a total ban on going out? Moreover, even Qi Chaoqiao's close staff members are reportedly forbidden from outside contact. Isn't that highly unusual? The source also revealed that the businessperson acquainted with Qi was summoned by the Discipline Inspection Commission and questioned about whether benefits had been funneled to the Xi family. Under normal circumstances, this would suggest the commission is gathering evidence of corruption related to Qi Chaoqiao, a tactic sometimes described as striking from the hem of the skirt, targeting relatives in order to ultimately reach the central figure. If action is indeed being taken against Qi Chaoqiao, it would signal a very serious situation. It would not only indicate a lack of deference towards Xi Jinping, but could also imply that he has already lost ground, that anti-Xi forces are moving directly against him. So the question becomes, who is targeting Xi? Wen Jiabao reappears and speaks out? There are rumors that Wen Jiabao is one of the key figures opposing Xi Jinping and supporting John Yuxia. If so, could the reported house arrest of Qi Chaoqiao be a move by Wen aimed at Xi? On February 17th, a 2026 Lunar New Year greeting card signed by former Premier Wen Jiabao surfaced on X. The entire message was handwritten in traditional vertical script, written from right to left. It extended New Year wishes to Liu Yizhou and to the teachers and students of Beichuan Middle School, the school that suffered the heaviest losses in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, where more than 1,200 people perished. In the card, Wen wrote that he often thinks of Beichuan and is moved to tears when remembering the teachers and students who lost their lives. He praised the school's resilience in rebuilding after the disaster. When compared with a previous handwritten letter Wen sent to Nong Kongman, AI analysis suggested there is more than an 80% probability that both were written by the same person. If the card was indeed written by Wen Jiabao, the implications are noteworthy. Recent reports have claimed that Zhang Youxia has been mistreated and is in critical condition. It is possible that Wen used this gesture to signal support. I cannot verify whether the reports about Zhang's condition are true or false. However, after Zhang Youxia was detained, senior party government and military leaders, along with political elders, largely remained silent. They may be observing the situation. They may disagree, but dare not speak out. And at precisely this moment, Wen Jiabao's handwritten card was made public. The reappearance of party elders can hardly be coincidental. It appears more like a calculated display meant to signal to the outside world that they still wield influence. Wen Jiabao is said to be a strong supporter of Zhang Youxia. If so, the public release of his handwriting at this time could be interpreted as part of the ongoing factional struggle within the CCP. Is Wen expressing support for Zhang and delivering a blow to Xi Jinping? At the same time, an even more explosive rumor began circulating, that Wen Jiabao, during an internal occasion, angrily criticized the Xi family for alleged involvement in certain cross-border grey industrial chains linked to northern Myanmar and Cambodia. He reportedly pointed directly to financial flows and personnel networks tied to the Fujian political business circle, where Xi once held power. If this rumor is true, it would suggest that the anti-corruption narrative may be turning back onto those in power themselves, and that the issue of family interests is once again becoming discussable. That alone would be a significant signal. Even more strikingly, on platforms such as Douyin, full audio recordings of Hu Jintao's past New Year greetings have been replayed late at night into the early morning hours. The resurfacing of Hu Jintao's complete recordings in the dead of night suggests a rhetorical strategy of using the past to comment on the present. This large-scale revival of historical nostalgia stands in stark contrast to today's political climate. Or perhaps it is not nostalgia at all, but rather an attempt to use the past as a mirror to reflect on the present. Additionally, according to China News Center, the first wave of this resurgence focused on the Gang of Four. Recently, platforms such as Bilibili have seen a surge of videos harshly criticizing the Gang of Four. On the surface, they denounce historical figures, but in substance, they function as classic political allegory. Previously, such content would scarcely have survived online. This kind of suggestive propaganda was long considered strictly off-limits, yet it is now being posted and circulated. This does not appear to be a mere lapse in censorship, but rather a test of shifting political winds. If Xi Jinping has indeed lost power, he may now be retained merely to preserve appearances for the Party, to prevent the situation from looking too chaotic. But personally, his fate may already be sealed, with only three possible outcomes remaining. At a moment such as the CCP's 21st Party Congress, he announces his retirement, perhaps the most favorable ending. He steps down early, citing health reasons. Anti-Xi forces move to detain him. Whichever scenario unfolds, the end result would be the same. Xi Jinping steps down, and the CCP itself may follow into collapse. Kai Shengkun also cited a prediction by Wang Enqing, who once said, the five-star red flag represents five generations and it will end with the fifth generation. Xi Jinping is the leader of that fifth generation. What do you think about the apparent re-emergence? Leave your thoughts in the comments below. Thank you for watching, and see you in the next program.