Weekly Strategy Session - 3rd March 2026

Okay, welcome traders to the weekly strategy session. Now, I know it's sort of pretty hard to find a common time for everyone. So I'll just bang this out. Just looking at the markets at the moment, right? Unless you've been under a rock, you would realise that there's a major geopolitical event going on. And you know what, you've just got to accept what it is, right? Because if you start to come out of the gates, and this is where a lot of promotion comes from a lot of the brokerage firms is really get in here and start trading, you're gonna make loads of money. But in actual fact, it's the toughest, highest risk sort of events that you can get into, right? The timing's critical, the spreads are wide, the volatility is extremely high. So just be aware, or careful what you wish for. Now, one thing that we are, there's two things to the strategy this week, right? Now, this changes the picture a little bit, right? Usually, you know, we're chasing the calendar, looking for the sort of key events around, you know, what might provide us with momentum and or direction. They are still there, but you've got to be careful with the timing, right? We've got some inflation numbers out of the euro zone, which are neither here nor there, to be honest. Wednesday, Aussie GDP, and that's followed up with the Chinese manufacturing numbers. So you've got a one, two there. The Aussie being correlating very high with the Chinese economy. Just keep an eye on those inflation numbers out of Switzerland. They aren't exactly always weird, but you know, the Swiss do things differently. You come into later in the week, we've got non-farms Friday, so you get the ADP employment numbers, the services PMI, which is like the non-manufacturing PMI, good number. And then you come down into Friday, right? This is going to be a little bit of a weird one because you come into Friday, and if I just put the clock back just to say UTC, Friday is going to be sort of a little bit odd, right? Because the market's going to be looking very closely at the US numbers, but they are largely pushed to the side whilst the fresh event, right? And when I talk about fresh event, the market will become desensitized to this Iran situation very quickly, right? Within a week, you'll find that no one's really even worried about it anymore, okay? That's just how the markets operate. Now, just coming into this, right? There's volatility around these events, and you can see on a number of different instruments, the gapping that was around. So like the event is a risk event, right? So you see situations like the Swiss rally, right? Did we see the Yen rally? Well, I think it did tiny, a little bit, right? But this is where everyone rushes in thinking, I'll buy Swiss, I'll buy Yen. Next thing you know, they're backed out. It's no big deal. And so what you can see a day or so after is the actual event, right? So you get this gap down in Euro, retraces, and then starts to head lower. That's what I expect to happen in the short term, right? So now we've had time to let the bomb settle, instead of saying the dust, you know what I mean? Pretty funny. Well, not funny, but actually more factual. So now what the dollar is, we're seeing dollar strength, right? And see how, if you're looking at the instruments where they are now, the market's calmer. Instead of like dollar Swiss sort of topping out and just screaming back down, like you get out of a volatile situation when it just starts, it stops, right? You look at Euro, it has drifted lower and then stopped, right? So this event right now is largely factored into the market, right? And that's where it is. Now I left a lot of these charts, a lot of these trend lines there so you can sort of how wild the price action is. Like Aussie's all over the shop, right? Aussie CAD has been sort of whipping around the place with the fortunes of oil. And then you've got the Kiwi, right? So you're looking at the charts, like this week, my plan is to be focusing on dollar strength, looking to get into the dollar trade on dips, right? I don't see the dollar strength going away just yet. If there's attacks on the US mainland, then that might change things very quickly, right? So that's what you got to think of too. The Iranians have been coming out and saying, you know what, we're going to like hit you at home and all that sort of stuff. If I was in the US, I'd be a little bit concerned if I was in a major city at this point. Now, so looking to sell Euro on rallies, Sterling on rallies, Aussie, this looks more like a basket case than anything else. Kiwi looks in between a basket case and the Euro and Sterling. Now, let's just get onto the hot stuff, where the real action is going to be. And a lot of traders have isolated this already, which is good to see. Let's focus on what we do know and what is impacted. Okay, now it hasn't been an easy trade. Check out the oil move, right? Obviously, they're talking about taking out Iran's nuclear capabilities. This is an oil event, right? It always has been in the Middle East. So you saw like no liquidity in oil. It jacks up, everyone's jumping in, piling in, all this sort of stuff. Now it's sort of drifting sideways. The Hamas trade is apparently closed now. Thanks for the update there, Mike. Any impact? No major impact, right? So a lot of the negative or the big impactful events of this attack have been already filtered into the market. I was going to say factored in. It's more filtered in because the factoring in will continue as we go forward. So keep an eye on oil. The best thing about it is sometimes these events, very rarely would you be in front of the screens when it happens, and very rarely would you know what to do at that time anyway. It's not until you start to see the price action, you're like, holy ----, this thing's going up. The dollar's going up. It's an afterthought. So don't think about it too much. What I can see are opportunities for the exit. There's a nice trend line here on oil down through 69 bucks. That looks pretty sweet. So I'll be focusing on that during the week. Just keeping an eye on it. The equity indices, not much in it. Like a bit of a clean out, risk off event, then they're back to where they were. That's just the way these events impact. A little bit of a stop loss run there on Bitcoin. And we saw a little spike higher in gold and silver. And sure as hell they are back, sort of back down again. So the event, the initial euphoria of the event is on. And that's where we are. Still, it's a dollar, to me, it's still a dollar event. And if you haven't got metastock, I don't know how the hell you're going to keep up to speed with what's going on. But what we're looking for is very clear risk off events. Now, the US equity futures slightly down. Are we seeing that across the currencies? No. So that's like a beware, beware the market, because it's not actually acting in unison. If anything, we've got a bit of a risk on profile as far as the currencies go. Aussie, Kiwi going up, even with the equity markets coming off. The bonds are not a factor at this point. So you see what's going on there. Now, I purposely built the trade signals with some extra sort of things that you need to consider. Right. Now, I did have a look here. I've just got to like fix up a couple of things. Sterling CAD, get them into the active trades. Sterling CAD came up with a trade alert. And I'm not surprised. Right. Dollar CAD and the dollar index. Oh, not sorry, dollar. Well, the CAD is one of the major instruments. Right. And oil. So keep your eye out for alerts there. The other thing is with the alerts, poor trading conditions. Right. We have a situation where the market is or the markets, equity indices, wouldn't necessarily say the bonds, but the currencies are not acting in the normal fashion. Right. So just be aware that we don't have great conditions. So this is a good way for you to come in and just without even looking at your charts, check the live signals and see if it's good trading conditions or not. Right. That's one way to look at things. Then what you can be doing is, you know, commodities are a hot spot at the moment. So keep an eye very closely on the commodities. OK. US oil, UK oil. No surprise that they're going up on both. Right. We're just looking for the right signal to be in the right spot and to look to get into those trades. Gold and silver discombobulating, like most type of things after this event. Oil is the raw instrument that is in play here. So just keep an eye on that as you go forward over the course of the next few days. Don't forget, we are going to be flicking around going, right, what's happening now? Is there any major impact here on the fundamentals? And the fundamentals will largely be pushed aside. Right. They'll just look at it and go, yeah, there's too much. There's too much noise from this external event to be focusing on it. So like, this is the strategy, right? The keep an eye on the markets for the risk on risk off profile. If you see the markets lining up nicely, like say the equities are going down and you see Eurostealing, Aussie Kiwi going down and you're like, OK, that's a real good match. You get an alert, you're on. Right. It may be a short term situation. So don't fall in love with the positions as we go through the course of a 24 hour day. We may get some new event or something change in the Iran situation. We may get some attacks in the U.S. and, you know, I just you always hope for these events just to sort of peter out. But we'll have to wait and see how it goes. And that's pretty much it. So you're trying to what you're trying to do this week is stay out of trouble. Right. Wait for your technical levels to get into the trade or wait for, you know, maybe just a signal alert to get you give you the confidence to go and have a look, check it out, see if anything's major going on. Right. So there's a number of different things going around. The markets are generally discombobulating. We've just got to factor this in. And it's only a short period. I know Trump said it's going to go for four weeks. I can tell you by the end of this week, no one will care less in the financial markets about this event. Right. Unless it escalates. That means attacks in the U.S. or something very weird happens in the Middle East. OK. That's to me where we are. Right. Dolly Yen. It's just going up. Right. That's more like a signal alert because it just doesn't make sense a lot of the time. Dollar Swiss has had a big turnaround. Right. As in the Swissy. No one seems to be interested in that anymore. Only one other thing I'll just say is just keep an eye on your longer term levels. Right. And this is where I was just having a look before. Get the dollar index sort of breaking up. You've got euros sort of just breaking down here. Right. And so that is this is more structural. Right. And that's what these events can can occur, can make happen. It may not necessarily mean that euros going down for a long time, but this move is enough to take out probably really good long term long positions in euro. They just get flushed out. And if the event stops in a week, there's a whole bunch of misery there and losses that fund managers have taken because they got caught up in the in the event. So you're looking at the long term daily levels just to see what's going on. Dollar CAD is going to be on your radar or the CAD crosses for that matter. Right. Going forward this week. Keep an eye on the CAD crosses. Any more escalations, it's going to be in oil, you would imagine. OK, so and that goes for the equity indices. Obviously, you can see the oil move here. It's clinical through that trend line that will come off at some point when or whenever this event stops, really. OK, so and that's where we are now. Any questions, Ben? You got any questions or anything to add that you might think that I've missed? No, that's pretty spot on, Brad. Yeah, and it's not rocket science, right? You just sort of know what's going on. You can see where things are going now, so it's a lot clearer. But you just got to wait for these things to get in the right level, momentum, direction, and then we're on. Right. So that's pretty much it. It's a bit of a bugger because you think about where the markets were sort of shaping up. You've got various central banks. Well, the Bank of England cutting rates, everyone else on hold. I wonder how that's going to impact the markets going forward. But all the general economic fundamentals for the first couple of days are pushed aside. So don't get all excited about any upcoming economic data releases because they will have very little impact, right, at this point. You're just looking at the news, trying to keep track of what's going on. If anything, the breaking news is where you'll see the event. If you're waiting for an article, then that's two or three hours too late. Okay, guys, well, that's it for me. The weekly strategy sessions, they are here to get your questions answered. So next time, if you've got some pressing questions or you want to find out more about different things, just jump on and we'll go from there. All right, guys, have a good one. All the best. Cheerio.