Global financial warfare is entering a terminal phase as Russia and China shift from dollar dependency to a gold-backed trade regime. This strategic rebasement is designed to neutralize Western sanctions while reclaiming sovereign control over natural resources and manufacturing. James Rickards, a seasoned investment banker and former advisor to the U.S. intelligence community on financial war games, provides a chilling analysis of this transition. Since 2009, Russia has aggressively quadrupled its physical gold reserves from 600 metric tons to over 2,500 tons, effectively front-running the doubling of gold prices that followed the freezing of their Western assets. Rickards predicts that as the BRICS nations pool their gold in neutral vaults and demand payment in gold-backed units for oil and goods, the dollar's role as a global reserve will vanish. This structural shift points toward a massive repricing event, where gold could surge to $10,000 or higher to balance the global ledger. For the individual investor, this means the wealth lost in a collapsing stock market can only be recovered through the rapid appreciation of physical gold—the only money that cannot be frozen or printed into oblivion. Conditional correlation remains one of the most misunderstood risks in modern finance, describing a state where supposedly diversified assets all collapse simultaneously during a systemic trigger. While traditional portfolios of stocks and real estate appear uncorrelated during calm periods, they often move in perfect downward lockstep during a crisis, failing exactly when wealth preservation is most critical. This highlights the necessity of maintaining a 10% allocation in physical assets like gold and silver, which remain robust against war, power grid outages, and international asset seizures.
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Let's go back to 2009. Russia had 600 metric tons of gold in their reserve position. In 2022,
and continuing today, they have about 2,500 metric tons of gold. They've quadrupled their
physical gold. In this war game, Russia and China were going to announce that they were pooling
their gold in a Swiss vault, and they had a UK bank of issue, and they were going to issue a
new gold back for money. But the catch was, from then on, if you wanted Russian natural resources
or Chinese manufactured goods, you had to pay for it in that new money backed by gold. If you wanted
some of that money, you could do one of a number of things. You could deposit your own gold in the
Swiss bank, and they would just give you some money. Well, there's a good chance you'll be
making up in gold what you lost in stocks. That's what the Russians did, by the way. I mean,
the Russians, we froze their assets, but the price of gold more than doubled since that happens.
Global financial warfare is entering a terminal phase as Russia and China shift from dollar
dependency to a gold-backed trade regime. This strategic rebasement is designed to
neutralize Western sanctions while reclaiming sovereign control over natural resources and
manufacturing. James Rickards, a seasoned investment banker and former advisor to the
US intelligence community on financial war games, provides a chilling analysis of this transition.
Since 2009, Russia has aggressively quadrupled its physical gold reserves from 600 metric tons
to over 2,500 tons, effectively front-running the doubling of gold prices that followed the
freezing of their Western assets. Rickards predicts that as the BRICS nations pool their
gold in neutral vaults and demand payment in gold-backed units for oil and goods,
the dollar's role as a global reserve will vanish. This structural shift points toward a massive
repricing event, where gold could surge to $10,000 or higher to balance the global ledger.
For the individual investor, this means the wealth lost in a collapsing stock market can
only be recovered through the rapid appreciation of physical gold, the only money that cannot be
frozen or printed into oblivion. Now, we present the clips from James Rickards' interview. Before
we continue to discuss this, please subscribe to our channel and activate the bell icon for
timely updates. Thank you and enjoy the video. This is something that's not very well understood.
It's called conditional correlation. And what I mean by that, or what the term means is,
you look at a so-called diversified portfolio of stocks and you say,
is there a lot of correlation here? Well, you say, well, honestly, this sector goes up,
this sector might go down a little bit. And so with your 10 sectors and 50 stocks and all that,
the correlation is low. But in certain conditions, certain states of the world,
the correlation can be perfect. They can all go down together very quickly because there's
some trigger event. That's the condition. That's why we call it conditional correlation because
it's not correlated when you don't care, when things are pretty calm or pretty good.
And it's highly correlated exactly when you don't want it to be, when you're trying to preserve
and it's all going down at once. And that's why I say have some stocks, have some gold,
have some silver, real estate, cash, maybe a big slug of cash, maybe as much as 30%.
I'll give you another real world example, Kerry, of how this, what I just described,
makes a difference in not just financially, but geopolitically. So let's go back to 2009.
Russia had 600 metric tons of gold in their reserve position. In 2022 and continuing today,
they have about 2,500 metric tons of gold. They've quadrupled their physical gold.
Now in 2009, I facilitated and participated in the first ever financial war game
hosted by the Pentagon. We did it at the Warfare Analysis Laboratory. It's a top secret lab
about halfway between Washington and Baltimore. And I helped to organize the game, but then I
played on the China team. I planted a friend, got a good guy, put him on the Russia team,
and we cooked up a plan over dinner that in this war game, Russia and China were going to announce
that they were pooling their gold in a Swiss vault, and they had a UK bank of issue, and they
were going to issue a new gold back for money. But the catch was, from then on, if you wanted
Russian natural resources or Chinese manufactured goods, you had to pay for it in that new money
backed by gold. And if you wanted some of that money, you could do one of a number of things.
You could deposit your own gold in the Swiss bank, and they would just give you some money,
or you could trade, run a surplus and earn the money, or you could borrow it. There were
different ways to get this new money, but of course, the catch was you had to use it if you
wanted Russian oil or Chinese manufactured goods. Well, when we introduced this, we were laughed at.
There were a bunch of Harvard eggheads, and I mean, there were people there from the US Treasury,
Federal Reserve, CIA, uniformed military, academia, think tanks, bookings, you name it.
They were all there. And we got laughed at. And then when you have a game like this, you use
colors. So the red cell was China, and the blue cell was the United States, and so on. And there's
a white cell. The white cell are the referees. They make calls and add points and decide who won.
They said, that's an illegal move. And it actually was a big auditorium-type room. There were about
100 people there. It looked like the way they show war games on TV, you know, big TV screens
along the walls, and we all had computers and all this stuff. And I stood up. I said,
what do you mean? I said, this is a war. How can you break the rules? There are no rules. It's a
war. And they said, yeah, okay, you're right. We're going to say it's a legal move. It's
a dumb move. I said, well, we'll see about that. Well, two days later, it ended up that Russia got
additional points. The US lost points. So we made our point. But my point is, at that time, 2009,
Russia and China each had about 600 metric tons of gold. Today, China's close to 3,000. Russia's
about 2,500. I dare say China has a lot more off the books. I don't know how much, but that's
very likely that they have maybe another several thousand tons off the book. But now come to
February 24, 2022. What happens? Russia commences the special military operation in Ukraine.
What's the first thing the United States says? We freeze their treasury securities. They had
about $300 billion where they made the money legitimately selling oil for dollars,
petrodollar accord. They trusted the United States, going back to my trust factor,
bought US treasury securities. But you have to hold them with a custodian because they're
all digital. And their custodian was Euroclear in Belgium, which has $47 trillion of assets.
Now, they're in custody. It's not a fund, if you will. They don't manage them all, but they hold
them all in their registry. The US froze those. So why didn't the Russian economy grind to a halt?
Why didn't their trading partners turn their backs on them? Well, the answer was they had
2,500 metric tons of gold. And for that, I give credit to Elvira Navigalina, who's the head of
the Central Bank of Russia. And I say she's the only central bank in the world who actually
understands her job. But she was the one who acquired all that gold. It's physical.
It's in safe storage in Moscow. You can't freeze it. You can't seize it unless you want to invade
Russia and start World War III. Correct. That's exactly right. Now, they're still fighting over
the frozen treasuries. They got some concomitant scheme to use them as collateral to raise a loan
for Ukraine. And when Ukraine wins the war, they'll get reparations from Russia and pay the
loan back. Except it's all good, except Ukraine's losing the war. Russia's going to win. They're
not going to be reparations. The whole plan just falls down. It's an embarrassment. But that's
the Europeans for you. But my point is, one of the reasons the Russian economy
not only did not fall down, but prospered, outperformed the US economy in the last four
years, is because they had the gold in their reserves. Plus, they continued to sell oil and
natural gas for dollars, but they didn't put the dollars in Euroclear. I can guarantee that.
So yeah, it has a place. And it offers diversification. And it's robust to war,
seizures, power grid outages, you name it. You better have some physical gold and silver. And
not all in, not 50%. I know people who are, I don't recommend that. I recommend 10% of your
investable assets. Don't bet your house equity and don't bet your business. But anything over
and above home and business are your investable assets. And we talked about diversification,
have a slice, I recommend 10%. But season to taste in physical gold, it will serve you well,
it will retain value at worst, and it will outperform a lot of other assets at best.
And if you happen to lose money in the stock market, because you're in stocks,
well, there's a good chance you'll be making up in gold, what you lost in stocks. That's what
Russians did, by the way. I mean, the Russians, we froze their assets, but the price of gold
more than doubled since that happens. They've made, I think I did one calculation, they've made
close to $100 billion of market to market profits on their gold. Now, yeah, we froze a couple
hundred billion of assets, but they made most of that back in gold. So it served them well.
I think it's true of everyday investors. Conditional correlation remains one of the
most misunderstood risks in modern finance, describing a state where supposedly diversified
assets all collapse simultaneously during a systemic trigger. While traditional portfolios
of stocks and real estate appear uncorrelated during calm periods, they often move in perfect
downward lockstep during a crisis, failing exactly when wealth preservation is most critical.
This highlights the necessity of maintaining a 10% allocation in physical assets like gold and
silver, which remain robust against war, power grid outages, and international asset seizures.
The geopolitical reality of this strategy is evidenced by Russia's quadrupling of its physical
gold reserves from 600 metric tons in 2009 to over 2,500 today. By shifting from digital
treasury securities, which were easily frozen by Western custodians, to physical bullion stored in
Moscow, the Russian economy outperformed many expectations despite severe sanctions.
This strategic move proved that physical gold is the ultimate hedge. While hundreds of billions
in digital assets were frozen, the doubling of gold prices provided approximately $100 billion
in mark to market profits, effectively recouping systemic losses. For the everyday investor,
holding a slice of physical metal ensures that when the conditional correlation of paper markets
hits, you have an asset that cannot be cancelled or deleted. Let's get back to the interview.
It's fine. It's liquid. You can buy it on your Charles Schwab account or ANZ account.
But it's not gold. It's a transaction, and it can easily be terminated. It can be wiped out
in a variety of ways. It's easy to seize, etc. There's nothing like physical gold if you want
real security. And then silver and real estate and alternatives, that's a robust portfolio,
and you don't have to worry as much about what money is because you've kind of covered all the
bases. Don't think for one second that markets are efficient. The idea that the stock market is an
efficient process, it discounts, it accurately discounts future developments, it moves gradually
to different levels based on incorporating new news. That's the theory. A bunch of people won
Nobel Prizes for that. It's all nonsense. It's not just an opinion. It doesn't fit with the facts.
The facts are that the stock market is volatile. There's something called scale invariance,
which is big moves are the same as small moves. You can put them under a microscope. They look
exactly the same. Markets are very slow to supposedly discount news. But when they catch up,
they move violently, either up or down, depending on the news. And my expectation is that the
markets have not even come close to incorporating what's actually going on. Talk to Wall Street
analysts, whether they say, well, yeah, they close the Straits of Hormuz, price of oil is up,
you know, 50% or higher, but the war will be over in two to three weeks. Well, they've been saying
the war's over two to three weeks for nine weeks. Correct. How many times can you say two to three
weeks, you know, in a row before you wake up and say, you know, maybe it's like a year or longer?
That to me, that's a better frame, a better way to think about number one. Number two,
as of now, Iran has won the war. Whatever's going on in the Straits of Hormuz, open or closed,
tolls or no tolls, is being dictated by Iran. It is not being dictated by the United States. The
United States has vessels offshore and air power and marine expeditionary units, but we're not
patrolling the Straits of Hormuz. We're not the ones keeping it open. And as of tonight, it isn't
so. And that's not in the market, you know, does oil go back up to 115? And there's another factor
here, Carrie, of course, the price is important. But there's the supply issue, you might not be
able to get supply at any price. And this is not a problem for the United States, by the way,
the US has plenty of oil, natural gas, because we just took Venezuela's oil. We'll take Guyana while
we're at it. And you know, we control the Panama Canal, we're reopening drilling in Alaska,
the Gulf of America, United States is fine in terms of supply. But we're not immune from the
price. I just got gas in my car. I mean, it was over $5 a gallon, that's probably seems low to
the rest of the world. But that's double what it was. In the United States, it went from $2.50 to
$5. Okay, I put the gas in the car, I paid the price. But the demand for gasoline is kind of
inelastic, you know, you got to take the kids to school, go to your job, go shopping, whatever it
might be, you can't like just abandon your car. But when you pay that price, there's something
else that you don't spend, maybe you don't buy a new dress or a new suit of clothes, you don't go
out for dinner, you skip a vacation, whatever. So there are ripple effects. And by the way,
energy is what it's, it's the key to transportation, everything. So everything is affected
by higher energy prices, not just the gas at the pump, because everything moves on a truck or a
train or a plane or something. Airline tickets have skyrocketed, but you can't get jet fuel.
And one other thing, and this is important. So we're now about six or seven weeks into the war
start at the end of February, here we are in, you know, almost mid April. There were a lot of
vessels underway outside the Persian Gulf when the war started. If you're going from the Persian Gulf
to South Korea, that takes two or three weeks to get there. So there's been a there was a lot of
energy in transit outside the Persian Gulf, heading to Japan, South Korea, and China and
other locations that kept arriving after the war started. Now there was nothing behind it. So we're
just now just now at the point where the last shipments have been unloaded, the reserves,
whatever they may be, are full. And only now, not the end of February, but today is when they
actually run out of new energy because nothing has left the Gulf since then. So that chain,
if you will, of vessels on the way, the last one has arrived and unloaded. There's nothing behind
it. Now you're going to start to use up your reserves and you won't have anything left.
You're getting closer to turning out the lights in South Korea and Japan and elsewhere in large
segments of the economy. I promise you the market has not discounted that. So there's just so much,
even if we had peace, love and understanding in the Persian Gulf, which I don't see happening,
but let's just say it did, the damage that's already been done and the disruption that's
already occurred is going to power this inflation. We're going to get inflation.
They're all different. It's all different causes of inflation. It can be driven by velocity and
the quantity theory of money. But in this case, it's being driven by supply disruption. But
so what? The price is going up and it's going to stay there.
assets that exist outside the digital ether and provide a genuine hedge against supply chain
collapses. As energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz begin to hit global markets,
the lag between transit and unloading means the real inflationary shock is only just starting
to be felt. The global economy is currently ignoring a massive supply side time bomb
that has not yet been priced into the markets. While Wall Street analysts predict short-term
resolutions, the reality of halted shipments from the Persian Gulf means that strategic reserves
in major economies like Japan and South Korea are reaching a critical exhaustion point.
This inelastic demand for energy, coupled with a doubling of fuel prices,
creates a ripple effect that forces consumers to abandon discretionary spending.
In this environment, physical gold acts as the ultimate fire extinguisher, preserving capital
while the derivative-based financial system struggles to cope with a reality of high inflation
and dwindling resources. Possession is nine-tenths of the law. In a world of supply shocks,
the only security is what you hold in your hand. Share your thoughts on his analysis in the comment
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