Russia Goes Dark

#finance
#financement

Russia says its economy has remained remarkably resilient despite sanctions, war spending and the loss of many of its traditional Western trading relationships. But what if the official statistics aren’t telling us the full story?

In this video, I look at fascinating new research that uses NASA satellite imagery and nighttime light emissions to measure what is really happening across more than 1,000 Russian cities.

Unlike official economic statistics, satellite images can’t easily be manipulated. They provide physical evidence of how much light — and therefore potentially how much economic activity — is being generated across different parts of Russia.

And the results are striking.

The research finds a significant deterioration in nighttime light growth following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with some of the biggest declines concentrated in western Russia and cities closest to countries such as Finland, Estonia, Poland and Belarus.

Meanwhile, areas closer to China and Georgia appear to have performed much better, potentially revealing how Russia’s economic centre of gravity has shifted as trade has been redirected away from Europe and towards alternative markets.

We’ll go through the key graphs and maps carefully, explain exactly what the data is showing, and look at why Russia’s official GDP figures may be painting a very different picture from the one visible from space.

Has Russia really shrugged off Western sanctions — or is the country becoming economically darker than the official numbers suggest?

Watch to the end for my thoughts on what this could mean for Russia’s economy, the sustainability of its wartime spending, and the longer-term consequences of the war.