The Housing Market is About to Explode New Home Prices Plung

The U.S. housing market is cooked and here's what you guys need to know. Foreclosures just ripped to a six-year high. Inflation expectations, three-year high. The bond market is now pricing in a 75 basis point rate hike in 2027. Yes, a rate hike. And new home prices just collapsed to a five-year low. Builders are slashing prices while mortgage rates are about to climb. Americans are losing their homes at a pace we haven't seen in nearly a decade. This isn't a correction. This is an unwind. So buckle up because this video is going to be absolutely bonkers. Now, we're going to start this video with rates and payments, and then we're going to move on to prices ultimately ending on advocacy. And I have something special, very, very special for each and every one of you. But we're going to start by listening to Ray Dalio talk about rates. Almost anybody who's objective, they would say, certainly you would not cut interest rates now, okay? You will lose your credibility. The Federal Reserve would lose its credibility, particularly now, almost at any time. And so I would say, but beyond that, it's not the right way to have monetary policy given all things considered. He should wait till when? Well, you have a dual mandate, right? You're in a stagflationary period. We're in a stagflationary period. Do you think we are? We are certainly in the stagflationary period. Now, how that transpires has a lot of parts to it, but we're certainly in that. And if you look at monetary policies by other countries, you're not going to see them cutting. Okay, so whatever your benchmarks are, you're not going to be inclined to cut the monetary policy, not with today's information. Now, let's take a look at their dual mandate, starting with quantitative easing or what they're kicking back into the market to mess everything up. You guys can see that the Federal Reserve has been purchasing assets, roughly $164 billion worth of assets since December of 2025. That means they've been doing quantitative easing for at least six months. And when we look at the federal funds rate, remember you guys how this happened to begin with, the prices of homes skyrocketed up partially because interest rates were cut by the Fed. And then look at this, they jacked them back up, we're all suffering, and then they started cutting interest rates again towards the end of 2024. And in return, remember you guys, when they reduce interest rates, that stimulates the economy and creates even more inflation. Now, this should be shocking to no one, when they started cutting interest rates and also printing more money, inflation expectations started skyrocketing up again, reaching a new three-year high, sitting at 2.72%. In fact, the only time we even hit the 2% target was briefly right in this period right here when they lowered interest rates. So if they would have just kept interest rates elevated, would we have this type of inflation we have right now? It corresponds perfectly. Now, I want to explain real quick what you guys see on your screen right now. You're looking at April of 2027. So you're looking at 11 months into the future. Right now, we're sitting at a federal funds rate of 350 to 375. The market is saying there's a 47.2% chance we're going to have the same federal funds rate 11 months from now. But it's also saying there's a 34% chance that rates are going to increase by a quarter basis point, and there's a 10% chance that they're going to increase by a half a basis point, and about a 1% chance that interest rates are going to increase by 75 basis points. And if we take a step back, the reason why the market is thinking that is because of inflation. As of today, the 10-year treasury which tracks residential mortgage rates. So if you want to know the trajectory of residential mortgage rates, you got to look at the longer end of the yield starting with the 10-year, and the 10-year sitting at 4.4%, which is putting residential mortgage rates above 6% once again. And I'm going to give you guys a quick breakdown on how much a half a million dollar house costs, like it really costs if you purchased it right now with a 6.56 interest rate, which again is conventional for today. Now, as you guys see here from this amortization schedule, when we put a $500,000 loan over 30 years at a 6.56 interest rate, the total cost of that home without taxes, insurance, and HOA and maintenance, by the way, is going to be 1.1 million. I say that because nobody should be rushing the home buying process. Nobody should settle on the biggest investment of their lives. Now, when we add property taxes, insurance, PMI, and HOA, the true cost of that $500,000 home is really close to $1.6 million. So by all means, if you want to go run out there blindly and purchase a house, you can do that. But with a potential recession or depression right around the corner, and we'll listen to a couple of videos on that later, I just think that most people should wait right now. Let's listen to a brief video on how the AI phenomena could be the thing that crashes the housing market. So look at this. Consider this our economy. You have 50% of white collars are going to vanish over the next five years. Gone. Which means that those people are going to have to liquidate their stocks to pay for their homes, which will eventually run out and mortgages will go unpaid, forcing them to sell their homes. And what are the jobs being lost? They're white collar, high end jobs that in the eyes of the bank, they were like, hey, this is a guaranteed guy to pay his mortgage. We call them AAA. And guess what? They're gone. Those AAA's are supposed to be secure investments for pensions and fixed income and low risk solid returns. And every time you take out one of these blocks, it becomes a liability and adding to the top of the tower. So what does government do? What did they do last time? They printed money. Mitch, that was a lot of information to digest. Can you go ahead and articulate that? We can all agree that a 75% rate hike is priced in, but that means that the value of your home and your properties is going to go down because the cost of the interest is going to go up. They're directly correlated. Your money has been equity stripped straight out of your amortization. What did you receive in exchange for the theft created by the school districts and the central appraisal districts? That's a question. Travis mentioned a dual mandate. Okay. We have the Federal Reserve and we have central appraisal districts. That's two. That's a dual. What's the mandate? The mandate is theft via compound cumulative interest on top of fraudulent bonding. In the last five years, the value of your home probably has been valued by the central appraisal districts up roughly 100%. What happened to drive that alleged value up? Did you build a house? Did you add on your house? What happened when the market drops, which is in the process of doing right now? Let's say it drops 20, 30, 40, 50%. You pick the number. What is the alleged value of that house at that time? The point that I'm getting at is that nothing happened to your home from five years ago to today except fraud. Now, ask yourself the important question. Where exactly are you going to go to get the money that was stolen from you back? Well said, Mitch. Now, let's move on to the foreclosure stats and the price stats. Holy smokes, we got some breaking news from the Wall Street Journal. Foreclosure filings have jumped to a six-year high as rising property taxes, insurance costs, and debt strain U.S. homeowners. They're about four years too late, but I'm glad they're picking up now. Now, it's interesting because when I scroll down, you see what they're using to combat this. This is the housing wire clown form right here. Not realizing that the foreclosures don't start until after the recession and also not realizing that we have foreclosure protection and we didn't have that in the past. But what is really surprising to me is it appears that the delinquency rate or the share of 90-day plus late loans for FHA is actually higher than the start of the global financial crisis. The FHA delinquencies for 90 days or more is the blue line. Look at the trajectory. With a trajectory like that, I'm sure everything's fine. There's nothing to look at because we just saw that chart from housing wire. Everything's fine. You don't want to pay attention until after you've lost everything. Isn't that what that chart implies? Can't we just look at this right here and say, hey, there's something going on with that trajectory. That's not normal. Another thing that's not normal is these foreclosure protections. Look at the black line. This is cure rates from 90 days plus past due or active foreclosure, meaning they're putting a loan modification. And look at that. So it gets high and then it plummets downward. But here's what I want you guys to understand. Why is it higher than 2019? I thought we were in way better shape than 2019. Look at that. You can't have it both ways. You can't have cures way higher than 2019, but not delinquencies. The data is mismatched. And the reason why it's mismatched is this form right here, foreclosure protection. People are like, what do you mean foreclosure protection? When did that come into existence? Through lockdowns and after the 2008 global financial crisis on 90 day plus delinquent mortgages. So here's what I want you guys to look at. Let's scroll down here to foreclosure protections on 90 day plus delinquent on FHM mortgages. No protection. Look at that's the gray. So about 15% of loans FHA have no protection. And when we go to conventional, about 20% of the loans have foreclosure protection. So my question is, if 15% of the loans are the only loans that don't have foreclosure protection, then how could anyone get a good idea of what's happening in the foreclosure market? Because again, all the other loans have this protection and you see that it plummets downward, that delinquency, it plummets downward as soon as they go into that loan modification. So I'm saying this, if we're not taking loan modification data into this equation, then we are not accurately talking about the housing market because you have to understand that they're covering up data via loan modification. Now I want you guys to follow me for a second here. Obviously the housing market is super hyperlocal. There's certain housing markets that on a nationwide scale are down. But if you go into those markets, you're going to find homes that are above the market value. And then you're going to go to out in the Northeast in areas that appear to be growing and you're going to be able to find homes that are under market value. The reason is it's macro data and real estate doesn't have macro ties. It's all about hyper hyperlocal analysis. Okay. Either way, follow me for a second here. Just follow the inventory. Look at on the Northeast, this whole part I'm circling, this is inventory surplus. Okay. Or the lack thereof. So there's a lack of inventory surplus in the North Northeast, but we have excess in the panhandle right here, Texas and Florida and throughout California. And then on the Northwest as well. Now this is going to directly correspond with prices. As you can see here, look at this guys. This is annual home price growth rate for March of 2026. The Northeast is still according to this data going up year over year, probably because there's still a lack of inventory and there's still enough buyers to purchase a little bit of houses. But when we go into the panhandle, you guys can see plummeting as well as in California and the Northwest. So it's fair to say that inventory obviously has an impact on prices. Mitch Vexler, once again, ton of data. Can you go ahead and articulate what your thoughts are on this information? The idea that there's foreclosure protection is an illusion. They couldn't cover off. When I'm talking about covering off and they, be it HUD or other entities. So foreclosure protection refers to different programs and resources that are available to help homeowners avoid losing their homes. So you can get a deferral or a reduction. There's different things that could possibly be negotiated. They don't have enough money to cover off what's about to happen. And even if they had a bucket of money for the sake of conversation between friends, let's call it 150 billion. That money is in the market or that money is in credit default swaps. When fraud is associated with what's about to happen, the default swaps will go to zero and the money that's in the market will decrease dramatically. So 150 will turn into 70. The point of the matter is it's an illusion of an idea. The idea, well, we can cover this off. We can protect the foreclosed people. We can help. No, you can't. And the reason you can't is because the median household income doesn't exist today, which is why they went into foreclosure. It most certainly is not going to exist in 90 days from now because the median household income didn't change. That's what you're seeing in those charts when those lines are diametrically opposed to each other. The foreclosures are climbing and the amount of people that are able to get out of the foreclosure is decreasing. They're diametrically opposed, but they're saying the same thing. The median household income doesn't exist. So all this nonsense, well, we can get protection in foreclosure. No, you can't. There's no way. Money doesn't exist to bail anybody out. And the money at the median household level, median household income level, where it really counts doesn't exist. Those two charts are proving what it is we've been jumping up and down about for well over a year. It's nothing else matters, but the median household income. That's it. And that comes right back to the amount of money that's been stolen by virtue of the central appraisal districts and the school districts. There's no excuse for what they've done. We've already proven that. By the way, that doesn't have no excuse. There's no law to back them up as to what they've done. That's why we're at the Supreme Court of Texas right now. These are the exact same issues that we have laid bare in front of the justices. Well, I got to lay bare another comment that was made because I'm just coming to you, Mitch, with this, okay? It's a little concerning, all right? It's President Donald Trump talking about he's not going to let prices fall again, even though, and I'm going to show you guys that new home prices are actually plummeting right now, five-year low. But let's not forget what President Trump said. I have to say one thing about housing because nobody ever says this. I am very protective of people that already own a house, of which we have millions and millions and millions. And because we have had such a good run, the house values have gone up tremendously. And these people have become wealthy. They weren't wealthy. They've become wealthy because of their house. And every time you make it more and more and more affordable for somebody to buy a house cheaply, you're actually hurting the value of those houses, obviously, because the one thing works in tandem with the other. And I don't want to do anything that's going to hurt the value of people that own a house, who for the first time in their lives are walking around the streets of whatever city they're in, very proud that their house is worth $500,000, $600,000, $700,000. Now, if I want to really crush the housing market, I could do that so fast. People could buy houses, but you would destroy a lot of people that already have houses. In some cases, they've mortgaged their house and the mortgage would be very low. And all of a sudden, the mortgage without any changes becomes very high and they end up losing the house. I'm going to show you guys the chart, but this just came out. New home sales surge in March. Oh, wow. That's great news, right? As prices fall to a five-year low, that doesn't sound very good. And here's the chart for median sales price for new homes sold in the United States. And they already changed the methodology in this data. This has already been down this much. Again, they just changed it. Remember houses? Actually, new homes got up to $500,000 to $520,000. They erased it. And it's still plummeting right now. This is crazy, you guys. And this just came out today. Look at the trajectory. Look at the trajectory. $387,000 now. So we're well under $400,000. Look at it. We got to go all the way back. Look at how far back, guys. Incredible. Incredible. July of 2021. And it's not just Lenar. This is the average of all new houses. Lenar is in way worse shape. I think they're back to 2018 right now. No one's talking about it. And you still got these bum realtors cheerleading. It's absolutely insane. And this is also interesting. The housing market is running out of buyers. I wonder if it has anything to do with what Mitch was just saying, the median household income, and what President Trump was saying, the prices of houses being so high. There's an estimated 46.3% more sellers than there are buyers. That is the biggest difference since at least Redfin began, which was 2013. But I would say that this hurts more than home prices being astronomical and out of reach for everyone is the national deficit. This is just for the fiscal year. This is not even a full year, you guys see on your screen. That's $1.1 trillion of money that the government has spent that is not theirs. They have taken that from our future. They're stealing from our future to pay for today's interest. That is the most messed up thing ever. And it gets really a lot worse when we look at the debt clock. And what is this, Treasury Reserve, 31 trillion? Are they just making numbers up here? Look at this. Average refund for taxpayer, 83,000. Does that mean if I accept crypto, I get $83,000? Is that what that means? Either way, I suggest you guys come back here and look at the unfunded liabilities, which was right above Mitch, because that's $107 trillion. So the national deficit that's close to $40 trillion, it's not even counting that. And once again, you guys, with a recession or a depression right around the corner, again, it may be a good idea just to hit pause. Just be a little bit careful. Just look at the math. If you're going to go find and buy a house, that's fine. But listen to what Tucker has to say. How does it get reopened now, do you think? I think it's going to have to be the force of the reality of what we're doing to the globe. I'm looking very closely at economic analyses that tell me by the end of June, if we're not back to reasonable shipping again, we'll be certainly in recession, global recession. And if we go to the end of August, we might be in global depression. And Putin and Trump can say over and over again that we have plenty of LNG and plenty of oil and everything. It doesn't matter. You're not going to survive in that kind of autarkic sense. Economically, you're going to crash too. So we would be looking, I think, at not only that coming to impact us and at the same time, our incredible debt coupled with the fact that Xi Jinping would probably accelerate the replacement of the dollar with renminbi because there'd be a moment to do it. Mitch, please articulate what we just went over. But can you just maybe help me understand and help the viewers understand what does it mean if new homes on average, that means all new home builders and all new homes, and also that's methodology, so it's already tainted. What does it mean when the tainted methodology data is showing the prices of new homes absolutely plummeting? What do you think that means to the housing market? Well, it's the inverse of what the central appraisal districts have been trying to do. If Mr. Smith built a house and it costs $300 a foot, while the house next door is now 20 years old, it's now deemed $300 a square foot. The value is false. The premise is false. The central appraisal district created fraud upon society at the behest of the school districts who needed the money to pay for the compound cumulative interest on the fraudulent bonds that they created. So Milton Friedman had an interesting quote. When government, in pursuit of good intentions, tries to rearrange the economy, legislate morality, or help special interests, the costs come with inefficiency, lack of motivation, and loss of freedom. Well, here's something that isn't debatable. If you want to determine what the true value of a home or property is, then close the central appraisal districts and stop the school districts from getting access to the federal bond market. Meaning, repeal all property tax in favor of the uniform state's sales taxes. Then, what is not debatable is what the true value of the property would be. It's the theft in the middle by those who have tried to manipulate the economy that has caused this problem of theft. It's very simple. Nothing else matters but the median household income. It has to go up where the value of the properties, by default, cannot go up. Just because a brick is a brick, a stick is a stick, and its cost went up, that doesn't mean that the value of the house went up. It's all determined, just like a commercial property, based on the income. Monopop have income, companies have income. They don't have income, they can't afford the roof over their head. Real simple. Repeal all property tax in favor of the uniform state's sales tax, and then you know what real value is. All right, guys, I'm going to end on a project that we've been working on for, has to be the last 15 months. Mitch and I have developed a manual for how we're making a difference on the local level. This is something that is dear to my heart. Before I show you this, it's going to be on my website. I want to thank you. If you've been financially contributing, if you've just been watching, and if you've been learning, you're just as responsible for the development of this information and our success, because we can't do it without you. The Local Advocacy Playbook, A Street Fighter's Creed. Now, this is 18 pages. I'm going to go over this in detail a little bit later. It's almost done. It's going to be uploaded to my website, but we're going to go into the mindset it takes. We're going to go into the 18 rules that I've learned. We're going to put the playbook in action. We're going to talk about your first 90 days, mistakes that will sink you, and some closing words. By the end of this week, that should be front and center on our website, and we should be able to start making a continued difference around the nation. I'm so excited, you guys, because we made it to where essentially a child can understand how to do this. It's so easy. We can use the system against itself. I'm going to show you guys that. Having said that, if you guys are just out there trying to figure out if you should buy a house or not, then take my course. It's free. It doesn't cost you any money. You should help you feel a lot better, but if you keep your head in the sand, it's not going to be good for you more than likely. Having said that, we hope you win.