A Severe Weather Outbreak Is About To Happen.

And we have a lot of big updates to talk about in today's forecast. And we're going to jump right into the severe weather potential over the next few days. And beginning with today, we have a large risk of severe weather in place. We have an enhanced risk of severe weather across areas like Kansas City, Springfield, Missouri and back into Wichita, Kansas. A slight risk that goes all the way into northwestern Illinois and into Amarillo, Texas in the mid Mississippi Valley and then a marginal threat for those in Michigan, Milwaukee, Chicago, back down into Lubbock, Texas. All hazards of severe weather are going to be on the table today, and I'm anticipating a very significant and widespread line of thunderstorms to form later this afternoon into the evening hours. Hence why we have a 30% chance of damaging wind gusts. If you live in the red area, we're talking Kansas City back down towards Tulsa. Some of those wind gusts could exceed 75 MPH. I honestly think there is a chance of a 45% wind threat for this area. I do think the odds of us seeing a really significant wind threat are high today across much of the central plains and back into the Ozarks. There's an isolated risk of damaging winds elsewhere. There will be a risk of some very large hail up to the size of tennis balls, maybe baseballs even as far east as Milwaukee, but mainly near Wichita, Kansas City and Omaha, as a few supercells will begin to form during the afternoon, and then it will eventually upscale into a line of thunderstorms. There is also a risk of a few tornadoes and even a couple of strong tornadoes are on the table. So we have a large 5% tornado risk for those in ST Joseph, Kansas City back into Jefferson City in Columbia. But the strong tornado threat is gonna be located from Topeka back into Joplin. And if you live over near ST Louis Quincy, I even back up near like Chicago and Davenport. I do think there's at least a low end chance of an isolated trade or two this afternoon and evening, so it's very important to stay weather aware. We will likely be live later today, so make sure you are subscribed to the channel and click the bell icon. So you're notified for when we do go live for Sunday. The threat of severe weather will shift to the south and east. We have a large, slight risk across the East Coast and a marginal threat, even including areas like Dallas and Shreveport, where all hazards of severe weather will once again be possible. The main concern will be damaging wind gusts for those over in the mid Atlantic, especially in Maryland and Delaware and even parts of Virginia. There is also a risk of some pocket change size tail and maybe a tornado or two over near Washington D. C. Back up towards Allentown, Pennsylvania. But overall, the low level jet is not gonna be very intense in this area. I don't think we're gonna have a high end tornado threat by any means, and strong tornadoes are unlikely, but it is still important to stay weather aware. And for the first time in forever, we don't have a risk of severe weather on Monday. There's actually no threat of severe weather right now for Monday, but a day that does have a risk of severe weather is Wednesday. We have a large, slight risk of severe weather in place that encompasses a giant portion of the Midwest, anywhere from Topeka, Kansas, all the way into Dayton, Ohio. We're talking about a potential for another severe weather outbreak, maybe even a tornado outbreak here, and I am really concerned right now about Wednesday as all hazards are gonna be on the table, including significant damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. This is looking like a pretty dangerous day, so make sure you are subscribed to the channel. I do think a live stream will be needed on Wednesday, and it doesn't end there. Thursday we got another risk of severe weather from eastern Indiana all the way back into New York City or damaging wind gusts, some hail and even a few tornadoes are possible. Now let's talk more about the timing of severe weather for the next few days, and we'll begin with what is happening today. We already have some thunderstorms out there this morning. This is from the remnant line of thunderstorms from last night that woke somebody up over there in Oklahoma and even your Wichita, Kansas. Generally speaking, there was not a whole lot of severe weather with that line overnight, but that is beginning to weaken. But as we get closer to lunchtime and into the early afternoon hours, there will be some thunderstorms out there near Springfield ST Louis back into Springfield, and these will be producing the risk of some isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. I don't think we're looking at much of a tornado threat there, but by 3 to 4 o'clock is when super cells are gonna begin to initiate back over near Omaha, Des Moines and Maryville. And initially, these air mainly gonna be producing large to very large hail and downburst damaging wind gusts. I don't foresee there being much of a tornado threat until probably closer to about five or six o'clock. That is when rotating super cells are gonna become more of a concern, and this threat will stretch from Indiana back into Iowa and Nebraska. So at six o'clock, we'll probably have a line of thunderstorms still going into parts of Indianapolis back through Evansville should be mainly damaging winds, but a spin up tornado definitely can't be ruled out. Even down here, north of Tulsa, back into southern Missouri, there could be a couple of rotating super cells over here. Generally speaking, the main threat is pocket change, size, tail and downburst winds. But if a super cell is able to organize down here, we definitely could have a tornado concern on our hands, and I've been watching some of the models here, and some have been depicting at least something developing north of Tulsa. So if that does happen, we could have some concerns on our hand just around or north of Tulsa. But really, the main complex is gonna be back off to the north and west of that over here near Des Moines, back through Salina in Kansas. We'll have a lot of thunderstorms going up between five and seven and any storms in this environment that can remain discreet and out in front of this cluster while the much better chance of producing the risk of a strong tornado. Look at this here around Kansas City near seven. The H triple R is depicting one super cell, which again, this is an estimation. But if we do see anything like that, there will be an elevated tornado risk. Otherwise, a giant line is gonna be forming, especially near Kansas City, and this will be producing a significant damaging wind threat. We could have wind gusts as high as 80 MPH in this line of thunderstorms. The H triple R here is indicating right around Kansas City. There could be some areas near Overland Park. They're seeing 80 MPH winds here this evening as this line of thunderstorms makes its way through. So it is really important, guys. If you are near Kansas City or a surrounding area that you have a lot of ways to receive weather warnings, and I highly recommend if you are at an outdoor event tonight, make sure you know where you're gonna go. If thunder roars and if you know a storm is coming towards you because I almost guarantee you somewhere around or in Kansas City, you are going to see storms tonight and they're probably gonna be severe. It's about 100% coverage here all across western Missouri and eastern Kansas for this evening, and this is gonna be a very powerful line of thunderstorms. By 10 o'clock, this will continue all the way from Burlington and Davenport back towards Wichita, Kansas as a significant line of thunderstorms. And then as we get closer 11 to 12 o'clock, this line will move towards ST Louis and Springfield, and it will probably be producing a couple of tornadoes embedded in this line of thunderstorms in addition to straight line damaging wind gusts. And then by the early overnight hours, this line of thunderstorms will continue to march towards Oklahoma City, Jonesboro and Evansville. But it should be weakening as we go into Sunday morning. I do not think it's gonna be producing much in the way of severe weather, but a couple of damaging wind gusts will continue down towards Little Rock and Texarkana. I also want to point out for our friends up here in the Midwest, there will be a couple of hail storms more than anything this afternoon near Chicago. I wouldn't rule out an isolated spin up tornado or some damaging wind gusts, but I think the risk will remain low, but definitely stay weather aware near Milwaukee Madison back into Chicago and Ottawa anytime between really about four o'clock through about 11 o'clock tonight. As we go into Sunday, the threat of severe weather will shift into the southern plains in the east coast. I want to talk about the east coast. First, we are expecting some thunderstorms during the early mid afternoon hours here across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, mainly with a damaging wind threat. And then by 5 to 6 o'clock eastern time, storms will begin to fire near Washington D. C. And Allentown, producing some downburst damaging winds and even an isolated tornado or two. As these storms mature and move towards Philadelphia in New York City, the window for severe weather here is not gonna be very large. We're talking mainly from three o'clock eastern until about maybe nine o'clock eastern tonight and then eventually by about 10 11 o'clock, most of those storms are moving offshore. And if you live over here in the southern plains, it's gonna be a pretty noisy afternoon near Wichita Falls in Lubbock, with some large hailstorms going up and some downburst damaging winds. I definitely would not rely on an isolated spin up tornado, maybe somewhere around or just west of Dallas Fort Worth, maybe from like some sort of outflow boundary accident basically. But I think generally the risk is gonna be pretty low. I would definitely stay on alert, though, if you live near Dallas Fort Worth back through Abilene throughout the afternoon hours. Now, as we go into the middle of this week, the severe weather threat is going to quickly increase, and it's actually going to begin as early as Tuesday across the Ohio Valley and Midwest, with a very weak surface based low pressure system across the upper peninsula of Michigan. Much stronger upper level low pressure system centered over Canada, and this could allow for just enough divergence here in our low level jet to lead to the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and some isolated severe weather. And one thing that's gonna help this setup is that we have some southwesterly flow in our low level jet, and that can help toe crank supercells. And I don't think these air gonna be like your large supercells that are ongoing. I think there's gonna be pretty small little storms, and so the risk of strong tornadoes would be very low in this environment, but definitely something that we need to keep an eye on here on Tuesday. And if things up, trying to definitely could be a bit more concerning. What is a lot more concerning is Wednesday. We are gonna have a low pressure system center right over Minneapolis and Fargo, with very strong winds in our low level stretching across Sioux Falls back in Indianapolis and through Pittsburgh. But that corridor where the highest winds are is gonna be near Davenport in Columbia by early Wednesday afternoon. And with this coming out of the southwest and with our low level jet currently forecast to be near 70 knots, this is almost identical to what we just had a couple of days ago in the Midwest. But it is a little bit more out of the West. It's not nearly as much out of the Southwest. What we had the other day was a much stronger southwesterly flow, and that helped to really lead to a much more significant tornado threat. So I'm a little bit more uncertain right now on how significant our tornado environment is going to be. But with how strong the level jet is going to be ramping up here, even around seven o'clock or so, it is definitely concerning because it is also across a very widespread area. So if you live anywhere in the lower Midwest all the way back over to the Great Lakes in Ohio Valley here on Wednesday, this is a day you gotta be staying really alert because we're gonna have not just a significant wind threat, but also the possibility of a significant tornado threat with any discreet supercells. And even as we go into Thursday, that strong little jet will continue to crank across the Northeast, which is gonna lead to at least a more widespread damaging wind threat across the Ohio Valley and Northeast, but also maybe a few tornadoes to go along with that. And as we go into next weekend, things get a lot more uncertain from there. Now let's talk a little bit more about the timing of all this severe weather that's gonna be coming up this week, beginning with what is happening on Monday. Monday is gonna be a pretty stormy day here across the Gulf Coast, with some isolated severe weather may be possible. I know we said there was really no risk of severe weather. There will probably be some level of a risk of severe weather added in a future outlook, but it would just be for isolated, damaging wind gusts. Far northern plains will also be dealing with some thunderstorms, but again, not much severe weather is anticipated on Tuesday. We'll have that really weak, low pressure system developing in the upper peninsula of Michigan, and that might just be enough for a couple of these storms near, you know, Milwaukee or even back over near Detroit to produce some isolated, damaging wind gusts, maybe a brief tornado. And then as we go into Wednesday, we're gonna have a much more organized low pressure system developing across the central and northern plains. And by as early as the afternoon hours, we'll have some severe weather on going near Iowa and even far northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with damaging wind gusts, some large hail and even a couple of tornadoes being on the table. That severe weather threat should rapidly increase during the mid to late afternoon, with a much more significant damaging wind threat developing. And then any discreet supercells out in front of that line will produce the risk of strong tornadoes. So this is gonna be a very powerful storm system, especially since it is forecast to be down to 990 millibars, which is actually a fairly strong low pressure system for this time of the year. And even as we go into the overnight hours, that damaging wind threat should continue over in Kentucky, southern Indiana, Ohio, back into Pennsylvania. And then by Thursday, this is where uncertainty really grows. But as this low pressure system will be intensifying, there could be some more severe weather in a fairly large area. But for right now, it is still uncertain exactly where that highest threat is going to be. The Storm Prediction Center did mention that the risk area will likely shift in future outlooks. For Wednesday, we'll probably see an upgrade in future outlooks, assuming things continue to look the way they look right now, which again, I think looks really concerning. And as we go into Friday and Saturday, that's where uncertainty really starts to grow here across the country. But I would expect severe weather will continue far into the end of June. As a reminder, we have our limited edition two million subscriber merch out on shop max velocity dot net. We are about to sell out of our signed hats. We got like 15 of these left. So if you want to get one now is the time. It's on shop max velocity dot net. There's also a link at the top of the description. We also have some two million subscriber ducks out. These are probably gonna be gone here in a few days as well. We have signed cards, T shirts, mugs and more. Those will be out for probably the next week or two. So if you want to check this out, top link in the description below. Thank you guys all again so much for watching and we will see you in the next video or live stream.