Gold Outlook for the Rest of 2026

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the Heavy Metalverse. Today we're going to talk about gold and we're going to discuss the path through the rest of the year. If you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So gold is and it's actually it's actually had a sizable correction after this large move up we had going into January 2026. Now if you followed my views on gold for the last year or so we talked about a parabolic rally but then a correction in the first half of 2026. Considering that it's now June I thought it was timely to maybe make a video update now since the first half of 2026 is almost over. Predicting where the low is going to occur is very difficult. You know I talked about it with bitcoin we sort of speculated about it with things but no one truly knows. But we can look at history to get an idea of of what might happen. And so my guess is that gold will likely find a low probably between the June to October time frame but on average in midterm years gold tends to bottom in June or July on average. So let's go through some of the examples and then talk about you know why the low will likely occur in that time frame. So the first thing we could do is look seasonality and as I've said before seasonality only works about 70% of the time. So if you run with it it'll likely work more often than not but about 30% of the time you would probably see it do something else. So seasonality is certainly not everything but if you look at the year-to-date ROI of gold in 2026 and compare it to the average of prior midterm years you get a chart that looks like this. If you overlay one standardization to that average you can see we exceeded the returns in the beginning of the year and now the losses have exceeded the typical losses that we get going into the summer. Currently it is day 162 of the year and on average gold bottoms on day 187. So on average in midterm years gold tends to find a low in the summer. It can extend longer but I would start really looking for lows to form you know especially the later we get in June and especially going into like July, August, September, October time frame and likely gearing up for another move up going into sort of the 2027-2028 time frame. One of the reasons why I mean it's so hard to nail down lows let's actually look at a lot of the midterm years rather than just say oh this is what happens on average. Let's actually look at what most of them have actually done. So we're going to remove the average. Now look at 2026 compared to 2022. You'll notice that they don't look that dissimilar. What you'll see is that gold had a move early in the year and then it kind of bled out and ultimately it found a low around the time that the stock market found a low. So that's the reason why I feel like I have to be as much as I'd like gold to bottom sooner and I think it could. I have to be open-minded to a low occurring a little bit later if gold is to follow what I would think would be a correction by stocks going into like late Q3 early Q4. If you look at 2018 you can see that again we had sort of an initial move early in the year and then we just kind of bled out into day 227 which would only be a couple of months from now before the market started to pick back up. If you compare this to 2014 you can see we ended up getting the later in the year. If you look at 2010 there was a low that formed in the summer it was in a bull market and we continued higher and if we go look at 2006 which I think there's plenty of there are some similarities there was a low formed you know around the summer months and then we sort of trended up after that and then going into 2007 gold continued to go up. So my guess is that gold will likely find a low between the June to October time frame. The reason I say that is because on average gold tends to bottom in June or July in mid-term years but if stocks get a correction it could drag gold down with it. Be that as it may there are some examples in the past where gold starts to go up even during that stock market correction which is why it could bottom earlier in the summer. Let's go through a few examples. Now let's go through one of the more egregious ones because one of the things that we've talked about a lot is how in the last two major gold bull markets they were interrupted both of them they were interrupted by a recession in the United States. Now in the current gold bull market we don't know we haven't had a recession in the United States so I don't even know if the current correction that you're seeing is actually one that lines up with a recession or not. The labor market as it stands right now is still holding up relatively okay so I can't look at that and be like oh well this is a recession necessarily because it might not be. You might say well this is a pretty steep correction by gold and have we had corrections like that before and not have a recession in the United States. Well if you look at 2008 gold dropped about 33 percent in the larger bull market before going on to new all-time highs. If you look at 1974 gold dropped about 25 percent before going to new all-time highs later that year. What is the current drawdown by gold? It's about 28 percent okay but if you look at what gold did in 2006 it had a correction of about 25 percent. If you look at what gold did in 1973 it had about a 28 percent drop. Now again these were fairly normal corrections for gold to have in route to a larger speculative blow-off top that then lasted a really really long time. So I'm not here to say that it can't go lower what I'm here to say is that look there's pretty obviously large corrections in gold that have happened in bull markets and the top still was not in. Now you might retort and say well what about the monthly RSI right that one was got that got pretty egregiously overbought and so could we really expect gold to recover after a monthly RSI of 95 but the last time the monthly RSI was around 95 was actually in 1973 when gold had a correction about a 28 correction which is where it is right now and then we still rallied up to all-time highs. What I would argue with the RSI is you want to look for divergences like a high on the RSI and then a lower high a few years later and then the price puts in a high while and then a higher high so you get like a negative this bearish divergence that essentially occurs but we've only had the initial high right and even last business cycle for gold you can see the high for the monthly RSI occurred right before this drop in 2008 but we went higher gold went higher and printed a lower high on the monthly RSI. So for me I remain still bullish on gold and having a correction in the first half of 2026 is what we said would likely happen right we said this is a likely outcome and if you look at what happened in the last midterm year you can see that gold also had had some sizable corrections in the last midterm year. If you look at 2022 you can see that gold corrected from March into you know into like October and it had about a 22% drop so what I'm saying is this I'm saying you have your first leg of the bull market and then a midterm year consolidation correction and then you have your second leg of the bull market and then your midterm year consolidation correction which will then eventually lead to sort of the third and likely final leg of the bull market going into the end of the decade. That is how I think this is going to play out for gold. You should be aware that in bull markets you will have corrections like this okay this is a a fairly standard correction for gold. I know it looks bad but again when you look at monthly Heikin-Ashi candles I mean this is what it looks like right and you can see how in these prior bull markets you know getting these corrections was just par for the course and wasn't necessarily an indication of a of a top that was going to last for a very long time. So I think this is a really important chart to really zoom out on to hopefully get a better understanding of like what actually could happen and I also think too that you know if you're if you're a crypto trader you might be used to market ideas playing out over just a few weeks or a few months but with gold this is something that you know it just kind of sits in your portfolio for a decade or two decades or longer and and it tends to do pretty well over the long term even though there are periods where it doesn't do so well. Now when you look at gold divided by the stock market what you'll see is that gold has rallied or sorry yeah gold rallied up against the stock market and took out these prior highs but it actually had a really large sell-off. Now there are times where this kind of stuff happens you get sort of this big fake out above it and then we come right back down and then you get another push back up. We've seen that actually happen a few times before like if you look at things like bitcoin dominance and you look at at you know the breakout that it had right here right it sort of had this this small little breakout and then it came back down. We've seen that happen with many different assets I think even palladium did something like that once upon a time right you can see how it broke through and then after breaking through it had a sizable correction right it dropped about 20 percent and then it really went through now it's come back down but you can see how sometimes after you break through these levels it can in fact come back down. So here's the thing if you go back in history and look at the times previously where gold sort of had these moves against the stock market you can see that well 1973 is an example and and the 1960s 1970s where we broke through you can see that and you know you can see how how much it continued to go up in 2008 we sort of broke through this level oscillated here for a little and then continued to go higher. What I would what I could see happening is the bleed for gold really slowing down if not coming to a complete stop in the next few months and then gold starting to recover while stocks then start to show weakness after the semis start to to sort of lose the bid for at least a little while as as cooler markets prevail going into the end of the midterm year. Remember when you look at the stock market in midterm years what you'll see the cadence of stock markets in midterm years is that you get a correction by stocks at at the beginning of the year and then often you'll get a correction by stocks at the end of the year that's 2014 here's 2018 and then 2022 right you'll get corrections by stocks at the beginning of the year and the end of the year and so we already got our correction by stocks at the beginning of the year we'll likely get one at the end of the year as well and so at least in the back half of the year so if gold were to bottom out let's say between June and October and then stocks start to really be are weak around that time then you would start to see the gold ratio go up against the stock market the gold valuation go up against the stock market uh during that time so i would argue that it's possible that gold could bottom as early as sort of the June July time frame because on average that's what we've seen right on average that's where we've seen it ultimately find a low we could go through all the different examples as well uh like we already looked at all of them through 2006 here's 2002 you can see it was more of a bull market back then 1998 you can see it found a low in kind of like late June early July and then just swept that low in October but i mean there wasn't really a great reason to be bearish on it after that low just for a sweep of the prior low and then you can look at 1994 1990 and 1990 gold found a low late June early July and then went back up and see if gold were to do something like this if it were to like bottom out in the next few weeks and then trend back up at the same time that maybe the stock market's getting a correction that's how you can see that gold ratio against uh the gold valuation against um the stock market really uh change a lot here's what it looks like in 1986 and in 1982 like in 1982 you can see gold bottomed out in like late June early July and then had a pretty nice rally into the end of the year you can look at 1978 1974 1974 you can see we bottomed out like June July time frame 1970 etc so i don't think it makes sense to get overly concerned about the correction in gold i mean objectively last year we looked at the market and said look gold is due for a correction it'll likely happen in the first half of 2026 it could go a little bit beyond that but i don't think it'll go too much beyond that the other thing to remember is that for gold the bull market support band as i've stated previously is based on the 20 month moving average and the 21 month ema and what you'll notice is that in the last bull market that gold had it basically stayed above that bull market support band on the monthly with the exception of the fake out in 2008 you can see in 19 in the 1970s gold stayed above that bull market support with the exception that the the drawdown here that we had right at right after the recession in 1974 so we actually already did drop below it in 2022 so i guess what i'm saying is look there's a good chance gold will sort of find support on this bull market support ban consolidate there and then ultimately go up higher into the end of the decade that's at least my guess as to some people ask is it possible for gold to put a new all-time highs this year it is possible but i think the only way it would happen at this point is if gold were to bottom within the next few weeks if it doesn't bottom within the next few weeks and instead it goes down into say like september or october then it would be less likely that it would be putting in new all-time highs this year but it's not impossible for instance if you look at 1973 you can see that gold found a top in uh june fell down into november and then was putting in new all-time highs by january right so it was only about seven or eight months and in that correction gold dropped about 28 which is what it's down about right now in 1974 gold topped in april dropped found a low in july and then rallied to new all-time highs by december of that same year so it is possible but in order for gold to put a new all-time highs this year it would need to bottom out within the next month if it does not bottom out within the next month it is very unlikely to put a new all-time highs i do think it will eventually put a new all-time highs in the 2027-2028 time frame but if you want to happen if you want to happen in 2026 we need to see big we need to see gold bottom out relatively soon so those are my views on gold structurally i would remain like i remain bullish on gold uh i think these consolidation correction periods in the midterm years are a nice reset in the market and i think that's essentially what what gold is experiencing right now so those are my views thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up i want to remind people that i am throwing a conference later this year if you want to sign up to get updates for that check the link down in the description below and and you can sign up and get updates for that conference in case you're interested in attending i will see you guys next bye