Trump's 50% Tariff On Canadian Goods Previously Protected By His 2020 Trade Deal Sparks Backlash

Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is Stevie O'Brien. She's a government and public policy expert and one of the founding partners at Barrick Hill Public Affairs. Stevie, thanks so much for coming back on. It's great to see you. In the past, you and I have had conversations on the relationship between the United States and Canada, and I want to have another one today. Because earlier this week, President Trump announced that in 30 days, he would be slapping a large swath of Canadian goods with a 50% tariff. And this would affect everything from wine to cement to ice hockey gear to dairy and everything in between. And the White House said that these tariffs are, quote, in response to Canada's discriminatory treatment of American products. So to start off the conversation, what is the reaction from everyone, from the average Canadian to lawmakers and leaders alike when it comes to this tariff announcement? So I think for the average Canadian, this feels like a little bit like more of the same. This is no longer a shock to the system. It is definitely not welcome news. But it is something that we've seen now over the course of the last 15, 18 months. Sort of like every few months, there's a new threat of a new tariff, a new timeline, a new justification. Some of it gets walked back. Some of it gets reinforced. The justification never seems to resonate here domestically. The rationale, be it fentanyl, or I think in this case, it was some retaliatory tariffs or Canada's being unfair to the United States. Yet what's really significant, I think, is not just the amount of this tariff, the 50% number is high, and it's going to apply to about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods. But I think the significance is that it is applying to goods that are otherwise USMCA compliant. And that, I think, is what is, for me and for lawmakers, the really significant piece. The USMCA was negotiated by President Trump. He said it was a good deal. And now he's walking away on the eve of renegotiating the USMCA from a deal that he said was good. Why would Canada enter into another negotiation in good faith if the American government is just going to throw the contract out the window or throw the deal out the window on a whim, it feels like? I think that that's a really important point, right, that these tariffs would affect those goods, some of them that were previously protected by the USMCA that was agreed to in 2020 during President Trump's first term. I know you said that he said that that was a good deal. He went on even more so about that. I have a quote from him. He said at the time that the USMCA is the fairest, most balanced and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law. It's the best agreement we've ever made. That's what he said back in 2020. Now he's threatening tariffs on some of the goods that were previously protected. I'm curious, what are Canadians thinking about Prime Minister Carney's response? Because he's said that he is going to continue to negotiate with President Trump. He said those negotiations, he and Trump agreed to intensify those in the coming weeks. What, to your point, if Canadians feel that what's the point of negotiations if, you know, things get walked back? What are they expecting from Carney? Well, I think that Canadians give Carney a lot of leeway to know that they are dealing with a very challenging neighbour that is perhaps a little bit unpredictable, behaving in a way that from a Canadian perspective may feel a bit erratic. So they are not expecting him to necessarily work miracles. They know that many countries are having a challenge landing in the right place with trade with the United States. They do expect him to try. The relationship is incredibly important. Canadians and Americans have very, Canada and America have a very integrated economy. Canadian and American workers build things together. And I think it's actually what the US trade representative wants is a strong North America, because North America together with the integrated supply chains, working together, we can compete against China and China's sort of region of power and influence. But infighting isn't the way to make our region stronger. If we can remember back in 2025, just a year ago, President Trump got the nickname taco. Trump always chickens out over his tariff policy, where he would say one thing, we would get almost to that deadline, and then he would walk it back. Is there a sense in Canada, because he gave this 30 days to go into effect, that because of that, these tariffs are for real? Or do Canadians think that this is more so just a negotiating tactic? I think there's definitely, everything is taken with a grain of salt. We'll see. The same panic that was sort of very widespread at the beginning of this trade war has been dulled a little bit on this. Maybe this is a negotiating tactic. We are at the beginning of the USMCA sort of renegotiation. Maybe this is sort of the first gauntlet down. We'll see where this lands. There was also a standoff recently on the Gordie Howe Bridge, and that walked back. So there's a lot of like a threat, a clock that ticks down a timeline. It's very entertaining television. Sometimes you get the ratings up to wait and see what happens. And then he does change a tactic or extend a timeline or comes to another negotiation. So that's definitely a possibility. But I also think the Canadians and the Canadian government are not, they're trying to make changes and do things in realms that they can control. And one of that is finding new friends and diversifying trade and finding other markets. I don't know if you or your viewers know this, but Canada has just been invited into Eurovision. We are making great strides to find partners in Europe, to make friends with other countries and to have other markets, because right now it's not a dependable relationship south of the border. I was just going to ask about that because the United States and Canada for decades have been allies, good friends, neighbours. And now we saw last year, I mean, Canadians were taking American booze off of the shelves. I was told that they weren't buying American products in the grocery stores. So if Canadians don't trust the United States when it comes to trade, if they think, hey, we're dealing with this really erratic partner, that's not only chaotic, but also walks back what they previously said and goes against what they said. Who do you think would be an appropriate trade partner? Who are they looking to, you're saying Europe, to deepen their relationships with trade-wise? Definitely Europe, other members of the G7. Prime Minister Carney has spent a lot of time travelling abroad, more than most prime ministers do in their first year. So he's been speaking with the Korean governments, the European governments. He's gone down to Australia. He's visited India. I believe that Canada has more free trade agreements. Well, one, they have trade agreements with every sort of NATO member, members of the G7, and probably more than most of its contemporaries. It's very focused on trade and diversifying. And I do think it's very important, though, when we say Canada not trusting the United States, that's very much the government. It is not the people. Canadians are so integrated. Neighbours, friends, we're on the same hockey teams. I was at the cottage up at the lake, even just yesterday evening, and our neighbours are up there from Kansas City. And we've been friends for decades, and we're neighbours, and we share things. But this is causing a real rift. Not in a political sense, but it's just when you see that the countries are not getting along, it makes everything a challenge. I was going to ask about that next, because US-Canada relations have been frosty, to say the least, for the past over a year and a half when you and I first had our conversation. What is our Canadians' views? And I know Canadians aren't a monolith here, but when they're looking at America in general, you're saying, hey, they think that this is just the government. So when the Trump administration is out of power, do you think those relations will normalise? Do you think they'll feel more rosy towards Americans? What do you think that looks like? I think Canadians are going to wait and see what happens. While there are great friendships and connections on both sides of the border, this is definitely more than one man. Some of these policies are going to have a lasting impact, and we will see. Sometimes you make new relationships and you build new bridges, and it's very difficult to just snap back. Canadians are not travelling to the United States in the numbers that they used to. They're creating new travel patterns. They're finding new vacation homes. They're travelling. Instead of going down to Florida to winter, they're going to Mexico. I know my parents went to Vietnam for the winter they're finding, and those are going to be patterns that are difficult to undo once they're done. You're making those new friendships, investing in different institutions, restructuring supply chains in a new way. It won't just snap back. Someone who is an expert on all things government and public policy, what do you think is missing from the conversation when it comes to US-Canada relations, especially under President Trump, and when it comes to his tariff policies in general? Canada wants a trade deal, but the trade deal has to work for both sides. It cannot just be imposed from one side on the other. Especially when the one doing the imposing can just change their mind on a whim. So I don't know if Canada knows really what to get out of this and what to trust. Why would we tackle some of the more tricky trade issues? And there are trade issues. There are legitimate things and issues that both sides can get to the table and find ways to improve upon. But why would you sort of put water in your wine if you don't think that the other side's word is any good anymore? And these tariffs, like I said at the top, were, according to the White House, in response to Canada's discriminatory treatment of American products. But last week, we saw that Canada had raging wildfires and some of that unhealthy air quality came into the United States in some regions like the Midwest and the Northeast. And those areas in the U.S. were covered in smoke. And at the time, President Trump threatened tariffs over that. And U.S. officials said these tariffs aren't related to wildfires. And President Trump said we're looking at that separately. What do you make of that? Do you think more tariffs, or not you, maybe Canada in general, thinks that more tariffs could be on the horizon because of those wildfires? You know, a great way to battle wildfires is to come together as a continent and find solutions that work for a whole region. Climate change is not a one country issue. It has causes and effects and impacts. Globally, it doesn't care about borders. So I think what we need is finding ways to work together, better science, use AI and fire detection and investment together to work together. I don't think you can start tariffing cross border, you know, whether it's fire or whether it's debris in the ocean that might be wiping up in the Philippines. I don't know if they're going to have a claim against whichever country of origin, you know, the plastic products came for. I mean, it's a very interesting, once you're still opening up litigation or tariffs on those sorts of things, it's not a one way street for the United States either. There are definitely fires from the United States that have impacts elsewhere and other industrial impacts from manufacturing production. So I don't think that's something easy to quantify. I think good partners, good neighbours work together on solutions. And that's what I hope we get to in the end. And I appreciate your perspective, especially being Canadian, being there and having that other perspective here with me. I'm curious, do you think anything's missing from this conversation? Because what I'm gathering from you, it kind of sounds like Canada is dealing with, they view this almost as a playground bully or boy who cried wolf. And in either scenario, everyone's dealt as a kid with a playground bully or someone who says one thing repeatedly, repeatedly, and it turns out to be a lie until it's true. Do you think that, or is there, it seems like there's this sense then from Canada that you get sick, you get fed up with that. Do you think anything's missing from our conversation right now, from the Canadian perspective? So the thing that underlines, or it relies on the back of everyone's mind, I think, while we're having the trade dispute are those comments about 51st state. They haven't come up in this recent couple of weeks, but we do not forget that that was said. And we do not forget that he also, that President Trump also said, I'm not going to do that through tanks across the border. This is not an, I will do it through economics. And so I think the Canadians are also thinking, is this another part of, is this an attack on our sovereignty? And that's what gets people up in arms. So even if alcohol, American alcohol was put back on the shelves in the stores up here, I don't think it would, I don't think anyone would touch it. I think people are worried about sovereignty. They're worried about the existence of the country. And I don't think anything has been done to properly address those concerns. That sometimes the rhetoric is up. Sometimes the rhetoric goes away for months, but it's never been taken back. It's never been, you know, joked off or we're not. It remains a position and a desire of the American president from the Canadian perspective. And that has everybody up, everyone on edge, everyone that is the lens, but I think through which everything is viewed. I really appreciate your perspective here, your analysis. And as we see more developments come out within the next 30 days and beyond when it comes to these tariffs and more, I hope you can come back on and join me. Stevie O'Brien, thank you so much for the time. Thank you.