آقای شایان سمیعی، کارشناس امنیت ملی در گفتوگوی نگاه سوم اپک تایمز فارسی درباره انتصابات جدید فرماندهان نظامی جمهوری اسلامی توضیح میدهد. او همچنین به وضعیت کنونی تنگه هرمز و اختلافات جمهوری اسلامی و آمریکا در این تنگه میپردازد
مخاطبین عزیز لطفا نظرات و پیشنهادات خود را برای ما بنویسید
Shayan Sami discusses recent appointments within the Iranian government, suggesting they signal a return to repression and a consolidation of power by the IRGC. He also analyzes the geopolitical tension surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the US strategy to neutralize Iran's leverage, and the potential for military escalation involving Israel.
Welcome, Mr. Shayan Sami, esteemed guest, to our Saturday program "Negaah-e Sevom," the Persian Epilogue. We are truly delighted to have you with us.
The date palm is mine, O noble lady, and the presence of the people is the reason for Iran; thank you for your invitation.
Mr. Saeed, if we want to talk about the recent appointments, the ones that were made yesterday.
If you think the regime is preparing a new program for war, that is, rearming for a new war, then it is the Islamic Republic.
That is, currently on this side, it was empty, so it should now be filled. What message is the Islamic Republic conveying through its strategy of war?
Look, first we must assume, let's suppose, that there is a suspect, Khamenei, who has carried out these appointments.
If not, these appointments are being made by the very same people who have been running the country's affairs for the past several months.
Be on the lookout for those same individuals, and anyone who hasn't seen him, hasn't heard a voice message or any audio from him either.
So it could truly be the product of the imaginations of these very people who are now turning the work back into nonsense—just like Hedi and Eijeh and these others.
But let's assume there is a suspect who exists and has carried out these appointments.
It brings us another point, which is that the Islamic Republic government
It's as if the system is recycling the same capable individuals again and again, just like those who were recycled years ago.
And the land had never had such a brilliant history in management or in its capabilities.
Even the people under this very government and this very system have rejected him four times as a presidential candidate.
This leads us to the reality that the government is genuinely undergoing a process of standardization and integration.
so that they can even retain the minimum of that power structure in their own hands
And do not allow new abilities and ideas to be brought into the work.
Even this person, who was formerly known as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and is now the political advisor to the Leader
It indicates that they are trying to take these people away from a certain group of individuals.
Not in the vernacular, nor in public discourse
in case any problems arise in the future or negotiations do not proceed as desired
Even if there is just one person or a few individuals who could have denounced them and now are reproaching them.
Who could do a better job than Mohsen Rezaei, who is currently carrying out all these intrigues on behalf of this regime?
But another series of these appointments is actually showing us that the government is trying to
From that foundation, they are returning once again toward the sword, back to that symbol upon which they turned against suppression.
Why do you suppress them?
Because when Hussein returns from exhaustion and is appointed head of the Basij Organization, and just received the order you're giving him.
To be used for comprehensive social control
That is, in fact, what they are saying: we want to make space more secure than the thing that was previously secure.
The message from the people of Iran, which was about freedom and not about this regime, means nothing to us at all.
On this basis, we believe we can move things forward by applying force.
Another appointment that was particularly interesting to me was Ali Abdullahi's appointment to the command of the Joint Staff Headquarters.
as stated in the order itself, it should take action regarding the Qom Camp of the Seal of the Prophets under the command of the Joint Staff.
So it actually means that this is showing us that the Pasdaran and Sepah regime is trying to consolidate power into a single entity.
The Revolutionary Guards seize control of all the country's security, intelligence, and military institutions.
Since they are counting on this being resolved through negotiations and whatever else with the United States
Going back to putting more pressure on people
Maintain economic pressure on the people and reinstitute the regime's repression.
Thank you for your explanations. Could you please provide a bit more detail about the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. plan?
There is a difference; from my side, there is none, but from the Islamic Republic's side, it continues to persist.
Yes, a new program has emerged, as reported in the news, whereby America is transferring oil itself.
From within the Garmoz Strait, meaning he's taken on this responsibility for you, he'll be a bit more grateful if you tell him more about what this program is.
Look, first and foremost, the Islamic Republic is striving to utilize an international waterway that belongs to all mankind.
Carry out maritime surveillance.
The Islamic Republic wants to get rid of that circle, which doesn't even belong to it.
Or maybe he could create a source of income for himself, establishing a way to earn a living.
And second, he wants to keep it there as a tool of pressure and a means of exerting pressure.
Now, the United States wants to do something; it wants to remove this pressure campaign from the Islamic Republic.
However, with this program, which is currently included in the report, it remains unclear whether the U.S. will actually be able to implement it effectively or not.
The United States insists that the oil tankers can carry oil loads.
Transfer it to another oil tanker beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
These all indicate that this task is operational.
However, a time-consuming process has two very high costs.
This issue has not yet been verified by insurance companies or shipping companies.
How feasible is it to carry it out?
It's time-consuming and has a very high cost.
And for this reason, I am emphasizing that the United States has taken action.
Various options regarding our ability to maintain control and protection over the Strait of Hormuz
Take this tool from the Islamic Republic.
and wants to take away another one of those negotiation tools from the Islamic Republic
Even yesterday we saw Mr. Trump regarding one of the Islamic Republic's demands, which was receiving compensation.
They came, in fact, and returned the favor so thoroughly that it was indeed yes.
We will demand justice from the Islamic Republic.
And all the families of Javid Namaani who lost their lives
They will be entitled to receive dignity from the Islamic Republic.
It means, in fact, this American behavioral model is showing us that America is saying
What Iran wants to use it for, as a religious oath
We could do the same thing ten times more.
Moreover, the United States possesses ready military power and capability in the region.
that the Islamic Republic does not have it
The dangerous aspect regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which you're explaining—can the Islamic Republic actually achieve anything?
that neighboring countries and the entire world devise a certain plan for oil transfer programs for the future
Don't be dependent on the Strait of Hormuz anymore.
Yes, it is possible. These all are effective in the medium to long term.
For the short term, because even installing those new pipelines took time
To create a new path
Time is passing, and it requires construction operations and maritime capabilities.
Yes, it is possible, as the countries along the Persian Gulf shoreline have the capability to arm themselves.
But time is running out, and this is crucial for the United States to meet the needs of European countries.
Implement its own political needs within the next four months.
It's somewhat more difficult.
But regarding finding a new solution for the Strait of Hormuz
It is indeed possible to write a formal program, but in my opinion, it won't be suitable for the sector in question.
Let's go back to the previous explanations you provided regarding taking a vow.
There might come a point when America, due to renewed attacks, feels compelled to take action.
Because America, which is not providing justice for others, has itself requested justice.
But could it happen that the situation reaches a point where America's ability to act is exhausted and it launches attacks again?
Especially since now a number of individuals have taken sides and are explicitly and formally working on their respective sides.
however much we have exerted military pressure and military power upon the spirit of the Islamic Republic
They followed closely behind.
No matter how much we have come, we have tried to move forward through dialogue and interaction.
The Islamic Republic has done more or less the same thing.
Or do you want him to sit more firmly on the chair, either by his own strength or by the strength of his bully?
Therefore, I am Hadi Eqbal on this matter, and my answer is yes.
The United States may conclude that engaging in dialogue with this government would hold no significance.
On the other hand, let's not forget this either.
The Islamic Republic is still considered a structural and existential threat to Israel.
The Islamic Republic will presently endeavor to inflict pain on Israel through its proxy forces in the region.
I don't even know this either, that due to the reckless behavior of the Islamic Republic through its proxies
Israel enters a campaign that the United States also wants to support alongside Israel.
Or take over another part of the military operation in support of Israel
It brings me back to this point: does the Islamic Republic wish to resolve this issue through negotiation and dialogue?
O Islamic Republic, considering all these people of chaos and end-times figures who are currently in power
It is on this basis that we should not resort to military intervention or direct military action.
Because if we are not going to have an Iran in the future that is prosperous and flourishing
The more devastation we are able to create, the more we can claim to have remained true to our ideals.
Thank you for the explanations you provided, Mr. Shayn Smye.
You're right.