مخاطبین عزیز لطفا نظرات و پیشنهادات خود را برای ما بنویسیدشایان سمیعی، کارشناس امنیت ملی، در گفتوگو با شهرزاد قانعی در برنامه «نگاه سوم»، به بررسی انتخابات میاندورهای آمریکا در سوم نوامبر و وضعیت حزب جمهوریخواه در آستانه این انتخابات میپردازد.
این گفتگو به تحلیل انتخابات میاندورهای ایالات متحده و چالشهای پیش روی دونالد ترامپ و حزب جمهوریخواه میپردازد. محور اصلی بحث، افت محبوبیت ترامپ، تأثیر تورم و قیمت انرژی بر رای مردم، و اهمیت کنترل مجلس سنا برای تایید صلاحیت اعضای کابینه و سیاستهای بودجهای است. همچنین به نقش کاندیداهای ضعیف در از دست دادن کرسیهای امن اشاره شده است.
Greetings to you, Mr. Shayan Samieh, and greetings to the viewers
Dear Persian edition of The Pakistan Times, I am Shersad Qanei.
And with another conversation, we are back with you from the third perspective. Mr. Sami, welcome.
I present to you, esteemed Madam Banu Qanei, and the courageous people of Iran.
Thank you for your invitation.
Ms. Sami has less than fifteen days remaining until the mid-term elections in America.
And these elections are about the people of America choosing members of Congress.
The U.S. Congress consists of two chambers.
One is a member of parliament, and the other is a member of the senate.
Now, in fact, they are members of the House and the Senate.
Currently shows that Trump has 31 percent popularity.
It meant a very severe popularity drop.
In the past, whenever elections were held, they were mid-term elections.
Usually, the ruling party, the one currently in power, loses a large number of seats.
But this time it seems that the difference between the polls is
The difference between Democrats and Republicans has increased to twelve percent.
Currently, most of the chairs are in the hands of the Republican supporters.
For example, the Republicans currently hold 219 seats in the House of Representatives.
214 seats in the hands of the Democrats
But it seems to be changing drastically.
Trump is currently making a series of back-to-back trips to the states that
He intends to redirect people's votes toward the republicans.
Encourage the republicans not to go to the polling stations at all.
Your current assessment of the government's performance
What is Trump encouraging people in this election?
If you allow me, let's take one step back.
First, let's see why this American Congress holds elections.
I'll explain more about it later.
The U.S. Congress, as you mentioned, has two chambers.
House of Representatives and Senate
The House of Representatives of each of its members, the entirety of its members
They are selected for a period of two years, totaling 435 individuals.
These representatives must run in re-elections every two years.
The Senate consists of one hundred members, and their term is six years.
And almost every two years, something around fifty-five
From forty to fifty chairs are in the process of change and transformation.
Now why am I saying this is almost because of this
Some senators might retire.
Or if they're gone, then someone else will have to take their place.
It will be given based on the normal trend.
As you mentioned earlier, in the past it was like this:
The party that holds the White House in its grasp means it holds the presidency.
Generally, it has not performed well in midterm elections.
We have two exceptions in modern history.
The year 2002, when George W. Bush was the President of the United States
The Republican Party not only did not lose any seats
Moreover, he added a few more chairs.
But in the year 2022, when Joe Biden was president
They all believed that the Democratic Party
About 30 to 35 seats in the House of Representatives will be lost.
It didn't work out that way—almost lost the chair, or perhaps the seventh chair, by losing it
I am showing you this sample trend.
But what impact does it have on the trend of American policy-making?
This Senate and control of the Senate are happening.
Because the U.S. Congress had a budget policy, the second policy
Appointment and confirmation of judges of the Supreme Court and judges of the Court
It determines a federal country in the Senate.
And third, the members of the cabinet and the first-tier members
The U.S. Senate confirms the nominee's qualifications.
Extremely important from the perspective of presidential leadership
There is one who can have people accompany him.
to have his cabinet approved by the decree of the seal
If, for the sake of argument, Mr. Trump in the year
The 2024–2025 Senate seat was not in our possession.
There was a time when he couldn't tolerate some members of his cabinet, particularly Defense Minister Mr. Pete Hugest.
Send the Minister of Education to these positions.
Because they faced a near 50-50 split in the Senate.
The vice president voted in their favor, and they managed to obtain approval.
So we can see that having the support of the Senate
It is very important for a very significant president.
However, regarding the electoral structure you mentioned
Mr. Trump, yes, he is currently making efforts and traveling to various states.
But if we take one step forward and look ahead
Generally, the presidents who have followed a good trend
In their policy-making
They are trying to travel to the provinces.
so they can steal votes from the opposing team and the rival team in reality
Reduce their votes in favor of their own team by exchanging them
But now Mr. Trump is mostly traveling to states
themselves in the 2024 presidential election
The winner had at least a 10 to 15 percent lead in that state.
As an example, I refer to South Carolina, Mr. Trump with
Kamala Harris gained 14 points in the 2024 election.
But now, there, Senator there
Mr. Lindsey Graham passed away.
And his sister was designated as the representative.
But now, she doesn't have sufficient social prestige.
And the Democratic representative has a chance of this happening.
If you want it, take that chair from there.
Mr. Trump was in the state of Kansas yesterday, a place
who had won by a margin of 20 points himself
However, currently the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate have an advantage.
Where do these examples lead us?
It comes down to this: when the president
A president whose political performance is credible
Have reached below forty percent
And the very place you mentioned, Mr. Trump
It is now around 90 to 91 percent.
My fellow party members are the president.
which in fact involves two tasks
One or two ballot boxes did not arrive.
And two supporting the opposing team
They're giving a message to the President himself.
We are not satisfied with your performance.
Why?
In the state of Texas
Now two people are in a tight race for the Senate.
Texas is also a place where the last time a Democrat
The winner of the Senate election was elected.
Around 1984
So we can see that it is not new in the new calendar.
But now the Republican candidates have become so unpopular.
Even the republicans themselves find it repulsive in that state.
that the Democratic candidate has a very good opportunity
So that he can take that chair from there himself
Mr. Trump has tried to get him to go there even.
But the people there are due to the issue of confrontation with the Islamic Republic
causing the energy price to rise very high
And again, what Mr. Trump had promised
The economic situation will not only be optimized
Rather, they stated that the tariffs we receive from other countries
That tariff money I gave to you people who are in
Agricultural fields and personal social activities
It means those who have their own work are returning to it.
People of Texas, people of Kansas, people of South Carolina, see
None of Mr. Trump's promises have been fulfilled.
So they are making the president the scapegoat, blaming him.
And second, I want them to tell the President of the Republic.
You did not carry out what you told us.
Therefore, we see no reason to come back and comply with your request.
Mr. Trump has just presented another solution
Of course, I don't know to what extent it might bring success for him.
That's exactly what they said—if America's Congress does anything about it, then
Two parties can win in the parliament.
I am submitting a proposal that would apply to every adult American
Five thousand dollars from the return position
The fees, I want to pay the money.
But the issue that exists is that right now
Some Republican representatives say
This adds to the U.S. budget shortfall, and this money is not currently available.
So we see that the republicans are the ones who are now in power.
They're making things difficult for Mr. Trump.
And Mr. Trump has been realistically up to date with the election over these two weeks.
I think he's trying more and more.
That is the fundamental basis of the Republican Party.
Encourage people to stand by the ballot boxes
And oh, how they came out and voted for them
It can get a bit from the Democrats.
Something about Trump's speeches that is said next to Samir
It's just that he has taken on a more defensive stance lately.
until he wants to encourage discussion about future policies
He is defending the policies he has had so far.
Two issues that are very important to people in America
The issue is economic and inflation-related.
And when they look
They see that the price of gasoline is going up.
This means a lot to them.
Now, regarding the conversations that have taken place
Our English section has been completed.
The majority of people's feedback is this
What can you do for me?
What can you do for my life?
People care more about themselves.
Apparently from the Iran war
They're not satisfied with the rise in gasoline prices and inflation.
Yes, is this part the main component?
The one who will be the output of these elections.
so that people can cast their votes
Because Trump has also carried out many other actions within the country.
The topic was migration, which made people very upset.
who has worked very hard and intensely in this field with the police agency that is handling it
There are certain issues related to raising and lowering budgets.
Well, perhaps many people were very dissatisfied with him.
Places where budgets were allocated
The lessons were held in schools that had gone up and down.
A number of curricula have been deleted.
A number of educational programs have been removed.
The topic might have been the LGBTQ community, which has brought about significant changes.
But how important have all these policies been?
which relates to the Iran war
Don't let the rising price of gasoline affect him.
You mention many very interesting points, and they are all correct.
The problem that is now making things difficult for Mr. Trump
This is really what the President of the United States says.
The economic situation has greatly improved.
The economic situation is improving significantly; it's getting better.
And what about now? Is the situation better than it was a few years ago?
But the people of America, since they have it in their homes
In their bank accounts and in household economics
They don't touch and they can't see.
They know the negligent president.
I am referring to a simple example for you.
When Mr. Biden left the Presidential Mansion
He was leaving the White House.
Inflation in the United States was approximately three percent.
that Mr. Trump had promised
We're removing this one.
Within the first year of my presidency
Now, about two years have passed since Mr. Trump's presidency began.
It has only decreased slightly, and is now around four percent.
Mr. Trump now, assuming yes, regarding
The southern borders of South America have performed very successfully.
It managed to greatly reduce illegal entries.
But the thing that has caused pain to the police ministry is that
Internal security, or what you referred to as ICE
These ones upon encountering citizens
American citizens
They attacked them, beating them, and killed two of them.
And these police officers are wearing masks.
To behave very badly toward people in a very subtle way
This trend has worked well for President Trump's government.
Migration and illegal entries have had a negative impact.
So we see that he has acted as a president.
The favorite party's type of collision
It could have a negative impact on people's opinions and views.
Mr. Trump, as I mentioned, I'm with you in the state of Texas.
Republicans should not have any room for concern at all.
In the presidential elections over the past at least six terms, all
They knew you could count on Texas to be a stronghold for Republicans.
Just as you can count on New York and California for the Democrats
Texas is one of the states that is most often
Illegal immigrants are exposed at the southern borders.
So why are people in Texas now trying, or even just thinking about it?
They are encouraging people to vote for Democratic candidate Mr. James T. Riley.
To Mr. Ken Paxton, Republican
Because, you see, Ken Packston is a person who
Although he was in his late 20s to early 30s in government positions
Yes, he has about 15 personal houses so far.
People are saying in this economy and in these times
How can one be a former government employee
He managed to attract such a large amount of capital for himself precisely because he was receiving state benefits.
Then it must be through unconventional means
It had been that many people had done so.
so that they can receive other forms of love from it
As you can see, the candidate type and calibration are low.
A candidate can harm the party of the president.
Although the state is in fact a secure state
Seyf must be counted for the President's party.
Thank you for the explanations you provided and for this
who was a guest on the program "Negaah-e Sabet" of Apoc Times