Gold & Silver Breakout: Buy Now Or Wait For A Retrace? Technical Analysis Revealed!

Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here in today's video, we're going to deep dive into the breakouts on gold and silver. Are they going to be sustainable? What are we going to see here in the next few weeks based on the chart technical analysis? So we'll look at this and see again, where are the opportunities? Is it just a jump on board and go long type breakout, or could there be a retrace to the scene of the crime? Let's take a look at the chart of gold to get things started here. And what we see is this was that beautiful wedge pattern and when it broke, Holy cow, did it break basically a 10% move up in gold, gold stalling the last couple of days here. You can see again, the price action, you have a little bit of a down day yesterday, a little update today, but we're still below yesterday's highs. I still think there's a little bit more upside in gold until it tags a major resistance level. I want to show you this one because I think it's worth keeping an eye on. So you guys know, I love looking for hidden trend lines, right? And hidden trend lines are amazing because generally things that most investors don't see are what actually works. And you know, everyone sees a flat horizontal line. I mean, that's easy at a pivot top or a pivot low, but what about those hidden trend lines that actually have been hit and held on both sides of the trend line multiple times. So check out this trend line that I found out. So notice we have this move up, right? This was that first bull run that started in late 2024 went into a mid 2025 into April. And then we went into this long consolidation base. If we take that high and we bring it through, look at how it goes right through the pullback low here. We then bring it through. It goes through this low here and then look, it actually goes to this high. Now these types of things are very cool to see. And again, you can clearly note high pivot and then we broke above it. Then we respected it to the downside a few times, then took off to the massive bull run that topped us out at around 5,600. We then came crashing down back into that line. All right. Bounced up again, came down, got below the line, retested from this side, reestablishing. And now that's likely where we're heading now. That's right around 4,500 on gold. Now do I think this ends the bull run on gold? No, you guys know, listen, long-term gold is going up. In fact, my institutional research report that is free on verified investing. You all you need is a free signup account. Um, and you can log in and it's on the dashboard for members. You can get it on the app as well, but that basically is telling us that we're headed to 13,000 by late 2020, basically 2029, 2031. Now granted, that's a little ways away. I know a lot of people are like, Oh, I want it there next year. Well, let's also be realistic. Remember gold was hovering between 1000 and 2000 for a decade plus. So to go from 4,000 or 3,900 to 13,000 in a matter of three years, that's pretty darn awesome in my humble opinion. All right. So again, that's what the data for me is showing based on the model that I created. And the free calculator is on there as well. So the calculator, just so you know, is a calculator that I came up with. I have, you can click a button and it'll show you my numbers and everything I'm taking into account M2 money supply expansion. Uh, we're taking an inflation, uh, real interest rates, um, you know, debt us debt cycles and global debt. I mean, all of this types of stuff goes into the calculator to give us these numbers. Anyways, you guys can check it out at your own leisure. But the point is, is that eventually it's going much, much higher. But my thinking is again, that this rally stalls out right around here. And then we get some sort of pullback. Now the pullback is going to be intriguing because I honestly cannot tell you how low it's going to go. I know my max downside, which I told you guys many times over is around 3,500, um, in gold. Now most people will say, Oh, that's not going to happen. I still think there's a chance, believe it or not. Yes, we have a breakout. And then you would say, well, wouldn't the breakout fail? Well, actually not. And I want to show you this. So oftentimes what ends up happening is you get a breakout. And then what you do is you do a retrace to the scene of the crime. Well, this is the trend line that we broke out of to do a retrace. We would actually head all the way down here. And if you go out to basically September into October, you're back to that level. Now, this is my worst case, fair case, right? And remember in a lot of retail investors, not most of you guys that watch me are intelligent enough to understand this, but you know, some people, people don't watch closely and they're like, Oh, well, he's saying, that's that's you always, as a trader and an investor, you should always have a worst case scenario and a best case scenario. Okay. My base case is 13,000. That's my base case. That's not even my most bullish case for gold. That's my base case. If we just see minimal incremental moves up in a lot of the metrics that I discussed earlier, my worst case, bear scenario is for 3,500 and my best case bull move would be by 2931, you know, 2029, 2031, probably about 17 to 18,000. That would be the most bullish. Now for that to happen, things have to really deteriorate fiat wise in the U S which they're already starting. And you guys might argue that it's already there, but I'm talking about at a much quicker pace than we're already at to a very quick pace. And again, that's up in the air, but either way, worst case you come back and retrace to the scene of the crime by October, let's say, and that could get us there. Now I don't necessarily, I'm not necessarily going to wait for that to be a buyer of gold. If it happens, awesome. I've already told you guys to add to my longterm holdings. That would be my longterm ad, but the bigger level that I would be looking at, there's two, number one, we have this pivot point right here. See this high and this high, that level right there would be the first spot. That's just below 4,200. So a simple retrace into that level could yield that next pop to the upside. Then if we'll say, okay, well, let's say it goes below there, but it doesn't go to the worst case scenario. What ends up happening? So we're going up here. We go up here, we pull back. Maybe we get a small bounce here. And then we come down to this trend line here, which currently sits at 3,900 and that could be the next big move. So support number one, support number two, and then worst case scenario for gold would be support number three down here. And the reason I give you guys these is because number one, no one knows the future, right? I don't, I don't know exactly what's going to happen with gold. All I'm doing is reading the charts and figuring out probabilities and how to position my own portfolio, et cetera, et cetera. But what I do know is that for me as a trader, the way I am a trader and a swing trader at 4,200 Pierce, I probably inch in a little bit of a position. And then if it goes down to that next level at 3,900, I add to my position. And if it goes to 3,500, not only do I add again to that swing trade position, but that now I'm buying my long-term holdings or I'm, and remember, I already have long-term holdings. I bought as much as I could afford back in the pre 2020 period when we were anywhere between, I mean, I think my first buy was around 1,300, maybe 1,200 ish. And then I bought all the way up to about 2000 in terms of physical, physical metals there on gold. But that would be that 3,500, like I said, would be where I would add to those. If not, I'm fine holding what I have because it's such, such a good average price. I'll just let it run. Okay. So that's your down, that's your kind of analysis side of the gold trade and what is going on here. Now let's go to silver because silver is a little bit more intriguing. So number one, silver also broke out of its down sloping trend line. Now, just like gold, it's starting to struggle the last couple of days, but honestly, after a move like this, that's not abnormal. Now, number one, do I think it's at a resistance point? And the answer is it is. And I want to show you what level that's at. So what we're going to do here, folks, is I'm trying to remember what exactly what the trend line was. I think it was this one right here. We take this low and we connect it through this little pullback low, which goes right through this high. So you guys see that right here, low pivot and then low pivot. We broke and then look at how it was respected on the upside right there. Now extend that out and look at where we currently are. So we're right into that level. They're pretty amazing actually, to look at that and see how price is respecting this level. Now, the way I plan on trading silver on a swing trade basis is any sort of pullback down here, which would let's say be back to about 58 or so. That's a swing trade enter starter position. If it continues down, we obviously know 54, which we tagged right here. That's my next ad level. And then we know if in a worst case scenario, it goes down to 50 or pierces 50. That would be my ad level. And interestingly enough, what you can see here is if we extend this trend line out and we ever do go to that, just like with gold, guess what? Where is that down the line? Well, here's 50 bucks. It literally could retest that level and touch $50 by September into October. Just what's interesting about that is it's the same timeframe, September, October that gold, if it fell would retrace into that. So again, there's a lot to unpack here. I'm glad I have such an intelligent base of followers that will understand a majority of this. I'm sure some people in the comments will be like, got to understand the best investors in the world are going to be ones that are always looking at the different scenarios and they're giving probabilities to each scenario. And so you have to do that. If you're a good investor, most people want it very black and white, right? They say, all right, well, where's going to be the low. Okay. That's, that's the level I'm going all in on. Plus I tried to do that when I was younger, went broke multiple times, blew up my accounts. Because even if you're right a couple of times, you're not going to be right every time. Even when you dollar cost average, like I do on swing trades, you're still not right every time. And you have to maneuver and do all these different things. And so keep in mind what I'm saying here. I do encourage you guys to create a free account of verified investing and gain access to that institutional report. It will blow your mind. And it makes so much sense about why the calculation signal, and then you get access to the free calculator for gold as well. So check that out. And don't forget folks, if you're on my YouTube, please jump on board and get to be part of my Gareth's top squad. Gareth's top squad is my YouTube premium. It's only 9.99 a month. If you go through the Apple eye store, they charge you an extra 30%, but that's, you just go through a browser and avoid it. But I give out discount codes weekly, multiple videos, just for members. And then obviously if you want to step your game up and see my actual portfolio, by the way, my commodities portfolio this year, gold, silver, all these other ones up $185,000 this year, and that's on a million dollar portfolio, 18.5%. And that's with a diversified portfolio. Generally I don't go more than 10% of that in any one position. So again, if you're at verified investing and you join smart money, commodities and miners, you're going to get that. All right. If you just want 10 bucks a month, no problem. We got you there right here on my YouTube. Plus you get those discounts. All right. Have a great rest of your day guys. Thanks so much for watching this video, commenting, liking all that fun stuff. I really appreciate it. Share it with friends and family. I'll talk to you soon. Take care.