Global BUST Into Money Printing 'Like Never Before' - Then $20k Gold, $1k Silver: David Hunter

I'm calling for a global bust, which I believe is something bigger than 2008, nine, in terms of credit crisis, when the financial system is free falling, you will see money coming out of every corner of every central bank to the tune of, I think for the fed, maybe $20 trillion, maybe more. We're going to see money. Like there's never been money printed before. I'm calling for silver to go to 200. This cycle called for 7,000 gold to cycle. And then, you know, I'm calling for 20,000, probably on 2032 or three, because the demand for commodities is going to be huge as that demands outstrip supply by a big amount. The only thing that can give us price straight up. Where would you be looking in the market today for potential opportunity? There's two and three year returns still ahead of us that are going to happen in a matter of months. David Hunter. Great to have you back on commodity culture. Let's start off with how you're currently viewing the broad market, because you've been calling for a blow off top followed by a major global bust, and we certainly have seen the big indices continue to rise higher. Since our last conversation, continuing to hit new all time highs, valuations continue to look very stretched here. How much higher could we go before it all eventually falls apart in your view? Yeah. Hi, Jesse. Great. Great to see you again. Um, yeah, I remain very bullish. Um, I've, uh, since we last talked, I guess it's been six months, probably. No, not six, but several months. Um, yeah, I've raised targets again. So I'm at 10,000 on the S and P I'm at 36,000 on the NASDAQ, uh, 4,000 on the Russell and the Dow I'm up to 70,000. So still a ways to go. I haven't done numbers lately, but you know, you're talking in the range of 25 or 30%, I guess, depending on the index. Um, still to go. And I think those are targets for this year. I don't, I don't do year end targets, but I think we'll get there this year. Um, I think we're probably in the parabolic, um, if you look at it on a monthly basis, you know, we have gone more vertical, um, we won't know until after the fact, if this indeed is the parabolic or whether we consolidate again for a month or two and go higher. But I think there's a pretty good chance. We just keep going here. Uh, there'll be, you know, one, two, three, 4% pullbacks depending on the index. Uh, so I'm not saying it's straight up, but, but pretty much, um, you know, clear sailing from here. And as you know, I've been saying for a long time that particularly institutional investor has fought this thing from the October, 2022 low. They've remained skeptical. So there's been a wall of worry to draw from, you know, that's the fuel for the next advance. And each time we sold off, uh, they got more bearish and that just, you know, meant as it turned back up, they'd be chasing. We're at the point now where you're starting to see targets raised, um, more aggressively. So there are seven or eight strategies out there over 8,000. Now I've been, I've been way above the street for a long time and remain way above the street in terms of my targets. But you are seeing more catch up. Now you're seeing at least on the sell side, the strategist, um, starting to realize this thing has legs. Uh, there's still not at the point of understanding that we, you know, the blow off the vertical part of this can cover a lot of ground in a hurry. Um, but you're seeing, you know, I think your Denny's got 8,400 and there are a couple of guys out there at 8,200. So you're starting to see it. And I think those numbers are going to continue to raise right into, uh, the fall and maybe a little beyond. Um, so yeah, to me, it's, it's, uh, bullish as can be there's trouble on the other side of this, but for now, I think there's a very strong momentum. If you had told most analysts before this war in Iran, before rumors of it starting, we're we're swirling. And before, of course it kicked off. Let's say we're, we're back in 2025, mid 2025. If, if you had said, Hey, there's going to be basically a full blown war in the middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is going to be closed effectively. Um, we're going to lose 20% of the world's energy supplies. We're losing fertilizer and fertilizer inputs. I think most analysts would have probably said, well, we're probably going to see a big correction in the broad market at that point. And yet that hasn't been the case at all. Um, it's, it's been pretty surprising to a lot of analysts out there. What's your take on, on why the market seems to be completely ignoring or discounting this conflict in the closure of the straight. Yeah. Not to mention that, you know, we, if somebody told you two years ago, we were that they were going to be, you know, big tariffs, at least for a while, um, you know, people just like they did in April 25 would have sold the market down and not expected it to go up. So, you know, it continues to fight all these, um, things that can cause a lot of, um, concern and worry. Um, in this case, I, I think we can, we entered this, um, with oil, uh, we were washed with oil around the globe. Uh, inventories were pretty strong. Um, yeah, obviously we've drawn down inventories and you still hear a narrative out there that oil is going to go to 150 because, uh, there just isn't enough out there. That's all proving false. I mean, you know, OPEC's having, having to constrain oil because, because the prices go down. Um, I think short-term you can get oil up into the high eighties, but I don't think it's going much beyond that. And obviously it's down from 120 on the original spike. Um, so it's, it's amazing to me, um, to look at, and the media has a lot to do with this, um, to look at the, the annihilation that we did in terms of the military in, in Iran. And I realized they've got drones and, you know, cheap, cheap technology that can cause nuisance, but we've, we've taken out their air force and Navy pretty much. You know, we've eliminated an awful lot of their threat and people can argue that they're rebuilding the nuclear capability while we sit here in a pause. I have a hard time believing. I think, I think people hear that here in media, which is very much anti-Trump and TDS and anti-American, they hear the media and they just take it at face value. I mean, you just don't all of a sudden, you know, rebuild them a nuclear capability in a matter of months while you're, you know, trying to survive. I mean, it, it doesn't make any sense. And yet people believe that even on wall street, you have people believing those things. So those, I see that all is contributing to the wall of worry and that the, you know, the, the market in its aggregate and its infinite wisdom continues to recognize the real truth, which is Iran's becoming less and less of a threat. You know, we've got the blockade in, you know, their, their currency has been decimated. Yeah, it's hurting the whole country and we don't want to hurt the Iranian people, but they're, they're on board with this too, because they want that regime done. So I, you know, I'm not nearly as bearish as everybody else about how, how this is being executed or, you know, what it's doing in terms of the Strait of Hormuz or any of that. I really do think if we kind of are patient and sit back here, it's not going to be a long, long time before, you know, Iran has to one way or the other surrender, you know, how that, how that all works out in agreement or, or take out of the regime. I'm not sure. Yeah, we do. I'm not, I'm not naive and I do understand that people don't want boots on the ground and it's very hard to finish the job without boots on the ground. But I think more than anything, Trump doesn't want to destroy the economy for the people. So he's been a little more measured and lots of, lots of armchair generals think we should just go in and bomb the hell out of them and get it done. Well, that's nice to talk about in a, you know, or conducting a video game. It's just not, you know, I think Trump is showing good restraint, not bad. What are the signs you'll be looking for that we are reaching the top? You mentioned a 10,000 target on the SMP and also how hard and how sharp could the drop-off be afterwards? Because for those who are long the market, obviously if you stay long for an extended period of time, you don't see the warning signs that the market is rolling over. You could get caught and end up having a lot of your capital wiped out. So how do you mitigate that sort of risk? Yeah, obviously as a contrarian and throughout my career sentiment plays a big role. And when you're trying to time a top, which everybody is advised not to do from time, from all of the financial industry. But if you are trying to figure out when the top is, it's usually driven by sentiment. You get to a point where it's just people are over the top with bullishness. They aren't being conservative with their money. They're getting reckless because it's easy money. A little of what we saw earlier in AI and things, you know, once it gets really heated, as I say, once the street is all in and retail is all in, when everybody's saying this thing has legs, it's going to run for a year or two or three. And you're beginning to hear that. I mean, you do have some of the strategies out there talking about there's nothing that can disrupt this for a while. And they look at semis and they look at memory and they go, yeah, that's so, you know, the demand is so strong. It's not like past semi cycles. You know, it's going to be a couple of years before they can come on with capacity. I mean, nobody's talking about double ordering. Nobody's talking about, you know, the fact that it always gets like this and people always assume it's going to get extended and then it all of a sudden stops short and everybody scrambles for the exit. So not just in semis, but in the market. I think you'll see that again. You know, bear markets haven't been, haven't gone extinct. We will have a serious bear market, but we're just not there yet. Now, are there are there warning signs in the economy? Sure. I think, you know, the issue, and it's funny because people are focused on interest rates. I think interest rates peaked yesterday, you know, topped yesterday. So I don't think it's interest rates that are the problem. I think it's more credit issues. And, you know, there's a lot of stuff under the surface, beginning of signs of private credit, private equity, AI, maybe getting a little frothy, all those things. But they're not at levels yet where it's, you know, you got to worry that, you know, you can wake up tomorrow and things are crashing. At least I don't think so. I think you've got months to run before you get to the real trouble spots. So I keep saying we could see a top this year and likely will see a top this year. But this thing has stretched and stretched. So I can't say it's impossible that it goes into next year. But I think we're getting ever closer. The sponsor of today's episode is ARK Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 307-264-9441 or by email at ianatarksgo.com. Make sure to tell him, of course, that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. And I think you've mentioned before that you think we could see up to an 80% crash in the big indices when this thing does roll over. In the aftermath of such an event, could we experience the lost decades as happened in the Nikkei post-1990 crash? This thing took over 20 years to get back to previous highs. Could we be looking at something like that? Because that would present a scenario where you don't necessarily want to be greedy when others are fearful. What is your strategy? How long do you think it could last, the bear market? And what is your strategy in the aftermath of that drawdown in terms of potentially picking up things on sale? Yeah, I do think that there are comparisons to 1989 Japan. I have said for a while that I think that the highs of this market cycle could stand for decades, which is what happened in Japan. That being said, because I'm calling for a global bust, which I believe is something bigger than 2008-9 in terms of credit crisis, there's only one thing that's the most predictable thing in my forecast, is how central banks and policymakers will respond. They won't have a choice. If you asked them today, they'd say, no way, we're not doing that. But they won't have a choice when the financial system is free falling. You will see money coming out of every corner of every central bank to the tune of, I think, for the Fed, maybe $20 trillion, maybe more. Because if you truly have a free falling financial system, we almost got there in 2008-9, pulled back from the cliff just in time. If this time we go over that cliff, there's only one thing that moves quickly, and that's liquidity in the system, printing money. So I think it's the most predictable part of the forecast, is that ultimately, we're going to see money like there's never been money printed before, at least in the world. And that means you will have a recovery on the other side. You will have a bull market on the other side. But it won't be a secular bull market. We will see a secular top this year, meaning highs for a long time. But if you go down 80%, or anything close to 80%, and just using the S&P number I have, it's $10,000 down to $2,000. That gives you a lot of room. If they're printing $20 trillion in the US, that gives you a lot of room for that to go $2,000 back to, let's say it goes back quadruple and go back to $8,000. You're still $2,000 short of where it topped out. So I think, and then from there, and that might take a year and a half or two years or less, depending on how fast it happens. And then beyond that, it starts lower highs and lower lows, at least lower highs, and then ultimately, probably out in the mid-30s, lower lows. So you can have a period where you can make a lot of money. But if you just buy and hold and follow the mantra that's been in place since the mid-80s, which is that it's time in the market, not timing the market, is what makes sense. It's been the correct mantra and the correct strategy for the last 40 years. But if you follow that through here, you're digging out of a very big hole, and you may not get your money back. So this idea that we always go to new highs, and if you just buy and hold and don't worry about it and passively invest or what have you, you're just going to benefit from constant higher highs. Secular bull markets, when they're 40 years old, this one's going on 44 years now, basically 44 years right now. 44 years is an eternity for most people in markets. And certainly, there's an awful lot of people in these markets that weren't around 44 years ago. So it looks like you always have a bull market, a secular bull market. But I think it's coming to an end. And if it is, and if we get that bear market that I'm talking about, that buy and hold strategy is going to fail you. And then the other piece of it is every cycle, not secular, but every cycle, market cycle, is new leadership. So this one's been, obviously, tech and AI and some other things. But it's been very much tech. The next cycle is going to be, I think, old industrial commodity. So the caterpillars of the world will work, the deers of the world will work, but so will silver, gold, copper, and the producers of that. And the reason for that is because all that money that gets pumped in will, with a lag of a couple of years, jumpstart a very big inflation cycle, the likes of which we haven't seen in 50 years, basically, or 45 years, going back to the early 80s. And it will start gradually. You're coming out of, I think, the bust will be deflationary. So you're going to come out of a year of deflation. And then from there, low single digits and then high single digits. By the turn of the decade, early next decade, you'll probably be in double digits, maybe moving up towards 20% or 25% inflation. The only stocks that can outperform in that environment are stocks that have pricing power that can produce earnings that outstrip that inflation. So it's going to get harder and harder to own growth stocks or to own slow-growing stable companies. And it's going to behoove investors to be in those things that are really moving up with inflation. I think silver can go from, I'm calling for silver now. I'm jumping ahead, probably. But I'm calling for silver to go to 200 this cycle, fall back, could fall back 50%, 60%, 70%, 75% in the bust, and then go from there. So let's say it falls back to 50. You could go from 50 to 1,000 in the next cycle. Gold could fall. I'm calling for 7,000 gold this cycle. Could fall back to 3,500, 50% retracement, or 4,000. And then I'm calling for 20,000 next cycle, probably 20, 32, or 3, somewhere out there. So those are the kind of things. And copper could go to $20 or $30. Who knows? Because the demand for commodities is going to be huge. And the price, we don't have the supply. There hasn't been a lot of new greenfield production. So it's going to be a case where demand far outstrips supply. You goose the system with, let's say, $50 trillion in global money, that produces demand in those areas that are being built out, which is power and AI and reshoring here in the US, and et cetera. As that demands commodities in big ways, as that demands outstrips supply by a big amount, the only thing that can give is price straight up. So the point is that next cycle will be a very different cycle in terms of leadership. And those that are able to be nimble and go from today's leadership to the next cycle's leadership will be in good stead. Those that just kind of sit passively in an S&P, for example, what people don't realize is that the old leadership dominates. Because it moved up so much for a decade or two decades, it becomes the highest percentages of the portfolio, right? If you're in an S&P, because of the price moves, tech is a much bigger percentage of the S&P than our commodity stocks, certainly than our gold or silver producers. And so next cycle, if you just stay with the S&P, your weightings are all backwards. You're in your most heavily weighted, even with the correction, the bear market, you're most heavily weighted in those things that are going to underperform and most lightly weighted generally in those things that are going to become the leaders. So it's, again, important to understand how the dynamics of a portfolio work and be structured for that. Great thoughts overall. I just want to pull on one thread there. You mentioned we've been in a bull market for 44 plus years. So are you looking at the dot-com bust and the great financial crisis as more secular or sorry, cyclical downturns within a longer secular bear market? And if so, how will this bear market differ from those two which were cyclical? Yeah, so good question. Yeah, I think it has been a secular bull market going back to August of 1982. That's why I say we're right at 44 years. The Dow, just to give people a perspective, the Dow, because I was running money at Textron at that time. It was new to them. I'd been hired six months prior and I said, keep your powder dry. We're in a bear market. We'll get a bottom. So August of 1982, I went to the investment committee and the Dow was at 780, slightly below that, but 780. And the Dow's now high 50,000, so the moves are incredible in terms of how much it's advanced over that time. And obviously, NASDAQ even more, S&P a lot. But that's where the secular bull started. It was kind of the beginning of disinflation. It was the peaking of inflation. And a lot of the secular bull was driven by P multiples expanding as rates went down. It's an inverse correlation. And so we're at that point where in the next year or two, we're going to reverse that, where rates, I think, can get to zero in the bust and then begin a long climb from zero. I'm talking about the 10-year, a long climb from zero to almost 20% as inflation goes from negative to 25%. And T-bills probably go almost to 25%. So you'll get the exact opposite of you've had the last 44 years, where P multiples get compressed. So you capitalize the earnings at a much higher interest rate. It causes compressed P multiples. And so that's why you have that 44-year secular bull market. And even though rates have two more years, maybe another 18 months to go or more to a new lower low, the equity market peaks out because it's driven by not just interest rates but also earnings. And earnings will roll over with the economy and global bust. So the stock market cycle peaks, I think, this year or certainly soon after that. The bond market, secular bull market, peaks probably late next year or early in 2008. And so in that secular bull market, you had many cycles. You did have the dot-com cycle. You had the housing cycle into 2007-2008. You've had periods of different leaderships during different periods in there. But we had recessions. And certainly 2008-2009 was a great recession. What I think we'll have here, a bust, is something I call not a depression because it happens fast, but something bigger than a recession. Let's dive into commodities a little bit and your price targets there. You mentioned silver. There's only about four people on this show who've mentioned $1,000 silver that come to mind, Michael Oliver, Lynette Zhang, Francis Hunt, and yourself. Michael Oliver was very bold with his call. He believes silver could go to $1,000 within one year. He didn't call for that. He said it wouldn't shock him. So I just want to clarify that for people who are piling on and saying this guy's crazy. He said it wouldn't shock him. But he has pretty high targets. Could you unpack that a little bit for us? You said you think it's going to go to $200 this cycle, eventually correct in the bust, and then rise again, potentially up to $1,000. Is that correct? Yep. Yeah, I can't get there myself to Michael's numbers. But I don't think he's crazy. And I certainly don't discount his experience and knowledge. And it's certainly possible it exceeds my expectation for this cycle. But right now, $200 is as high as I can get. And I had raised it. I had it at $125, I think, going into January. And then raised it to $170, I think. And then raised it again to $200 at the end of May. I'm pretty confident with the $200. I just can't get to the $300, $400, $500 that Michael's talked about. And certainly not $1,000. The $1,000 for me is probably a 20, 30, 2, or 3 type period. But you can drive a truck through how much you can miss that by. It could be two years either way. But it's the next cycle really getting driven. And it comes from a lower level in the bust. I do think the metals will, as they always do, get hit in a big market correction, in a recession, or in this case, is a bigger than recession type downturn. But those that are very turned off by the fact that silver got to $122 and rolled over and has been down for months. And it shook out a lot of weaker hands. As you know, because we've talked about this for years, I was bullish on silver and gold two, three, four years ago. And it took a while to get gold going before silver. You know, I took a lot of heat when it was in the mid-20s and just couldn't get out of its own way. It was trade, particularly in miners, but between mid-20s and the high teens. And then it got up to 30 and then backed off again. People just didn't believe that it had the kind of legs that I talked about. And then when it finally broke out and took off, that's when people jumped on the bandwagon. So they didn't buy it at $30 or $40. They bought it at $60, $70, $80. And now they're really upset because they lost money. But once things get to a bullion, the market has a way of basically bringing back the discipline, shaking out the weak hands. And because the run from $50 to $122 was parabolic and happened so dramatically, it took months to correct. And I can say that looking back. I didn't know that it was going to take six or eight months to get going. But I'm confident now that that $55-$56 level was the correct correction bottom and that we have begun the turn. Obviously, today it's coming out of a little bit of a pullback yesterday. And it looks like it can go higher. There's still going to be pullbacks. You have to be careful with it. But I do think once it breaks above a certain level, I'm not sure whether that's... I see $72 right now as the next step. But I know Michael's probably talking higher than that. But there'll be corrections along the way. But I don't think they're going to be long-lasting. They might last days, but not months. Yeah, and it's interesting to point out that back when silver was range-bound between around that $20-$30 level, people would call you crazy for saying silver would get to $50, let alone $100, let alone $120. So people who are upset about the silver price today, I mean, what do you want? We're at $65 here. Tell somebody at the beginning of last year, silver is going to $65. They would have said, you're either lying or it's life-changing. But now everybody's crying. So I think that's funny. Gold, how much of the gold story do you think is a currency debasement story? And how much of the broad market rising do you think is a currency debasement story? Because obviously the extreme example we could look at is in hyperinflationary environments such as Zimbabwe. I forget what year that was. The stock market went absolutely ballistic. I believe Weimar Republic in Germany stock market goes ballistic because of the currency depreciation at such a rapid scale. Do you think currency debasement is behind the rise in gold and the broad stock market as well to some extent? And if so, how much? Yeah, for sure. It plays a role. I mean, if you price gold in various currencies, you'll see differences in returns because the currency matters. Obviously, the dollar in the last year has been up and yet gold has a nice run. So it hasn't been the case near term. But I do think the big move from 4,500, 4,400 here to 7,000, a lot of that is going to be currency. I mean, the dollar, I have the dollar going to 83, something like that, over the course of the next six or nine months or less. And if that happens, it's a big part of the move to 7,000, I think. It's more than that, though. Obviously, rates coming down, which, as I said, I think rates peaked yesterday. I usually try to call things to the day, and I didn't call it. But I mean, I don't usually pinpoint things like that. But it looks to me like you finally got to max pain, max bearishness. And then obviously, what Besson did today, announced today, helps. But I have rates going down from here for the next 18 months. It'll start gradually. But ultimately, like I said, you could get 10 year down to zero. And that first move down, let's say, from the 460, 70 area down below four, I think is going to help gold. That'll be trading down well. The rates will be trading down well, while gold's moving up and silver's moving up. And then I think you can get a faster move from there down to three or even below. That will be kind of that final move up towards those numbers. And as I said, I can only get to 7,000 on gold and 200 on silver. But it won't surprise me if those numbers prove conservative. How much trouble is Japan in right now? Because we just saw the US essentially intervene in the yen market. A lot of people talking about this was to stop Japan from selling off a bunch of its treasuries, considering it's in a pretty precarious situation right now. It's a net oil importer. I think it imports the vast majority of its hydrocarbons, and it gets a lot of those. I believe most of them from the Middle East. So it's been hit a little bit hard, although I believe they have made some deals with Iran to get some oil through the strait. And then, of course, the yen dropping and Japanese bond yields rising to very high levels historically. How much trouble are they in? And if things really go wrong there, could it reverberate throughout the global economy as well? Yeah, I have said they are kind of the wild card in the bust. You know, we don't really know what's going to trigger the bust or what's going to be the most dramatic piece of the bust. But certainly Japan is right up there as a candidate. I mean, you know, they have maintained zero interest rate policy forever and have basically kind of looked like you had made monetary theory extinct, you know, that you could print money forever and not have inflation. And, you know, I'm a monetarist pretty much, and I just think what we're seeing now is what should have been expected, is that at some point, yes, they are more homogeneous society and they had lots of things that they could kind of help them keep inflation in check for a while, but now it's breaking out. And so are rates. Rates track inflation. And that's their problem, is they've, you know, for decades they maintained this policy and thought they could get away with it. Well, guess what? Now it's, you know, you postpone the monetary response, or the response to the monetary, but it's coming now. And I think during the next year, you will see rates keep pushing up there. And they just don't have, I don't think they have the leeway to deal with that. And I mean, I have the yen going, and I do yen dollar, not dollar yen, but the yen to the dollar I have going to 0.0085, and it's down around 0.0063 something, 635, say. So I have the yen going pretty high here over the course of the next six, eight months. And, you know, dollar obviously is going to be down against the euro, the yen, even the, you know, the other dollars, you know, Canadian dollar and the Aussie dollar, etc. So, but I do think that in the bust, Japan's going to be probably one of the places where it's just over leveraged, you know, very over leveraged to that policy. And as I have preached over and over, leverage works both ways. On the way up, it enhances returns. We're seeing that here in our markets, in our, you know, in everything we do. And leverage decimates you, as we found out in 2008, 2009, on the other side. So that's basically my reason for having a bust, is we've got 330 trillion plus in global debt out there. And, you know, certainly China's a big part of that. Certainly the U.S. is part of that. Japan's part of that. All, you know, all Western countries are part of that. It's, I'm not calling for a sovereign crisis, because they have the printing press. But there's a lot of private debt out there that I think is going to have a problem. You know, certainly commercial real estate, we'll find out there's another shooter drop there, private equity, private credit, et cetera. There's just, there's plenty of candidates where once this thing rolls over, once something triggers, you're going to see an awful lot of things show up. And given everything we've discussed so far, where would you be looking in the market today for potential opportunity? Because obviously we're in a very uncertain market environment. You believe that the broad market's going to continue rising. That could be difficult to time for your regular average retail investor who doesn't know how to look at charts and doesn't understand a lot of the macro behind it. That's the issue we've come to in today's investing world is this passive investing, as you were speaking of. People now believe that the stock market is a high interest savings account, that you put money in it and then you just wait. And over time, you're just going to keep making more and more money. And I think that pair, I agree with you, that paradigm is rapidly changing. So with all that in mind, where would you be looking to invest today? I know you mentioned long dated U.S. treasuries before. Is that an area you're bullish on and anywhere else where you're seeing potential value? Yeah, so it's a little tricky and people jump ahead because I do have my zero percent treasury call, but it starts very slow. So there's a period in here. And again, everybody has to figure this out for themselves based on their own experience and risk tolerance, et cetera. But we're in a funny place where I mean, I have a 90 number for XLF, the financial ETF. And I'm not sure where that is now, but that's more than a 50 percent move from here, I think. And so it's there are still I mean, when you figure the numbers, there's two and three year returns still ahead of us that are going to happen in a matter of months. So you have to look at both time and what the upside is. And so I just caution people, even though and again, some people should probably because I could be wrong, you know, lots of the call could be wrong. So you have to understand the risk we're at when we're this late in the game. However, if I'm right and there's, you know, 30, 40, 50 percent returns left in some of these areas, you run the risk that you jump out now, say I'm just not smart enough time top and I'm nervous as you've been nervous since, you know, since 2020. A lot of these people have been nervous all along, particularly institutions. But if you jump out now, you run the risk that if you get this final parabolic run, it's going to, you know, psychology being what it is, it will suck you back in for a lot of people. And they'll end up getting out, understanding what's coming, but then getting sucked in by the fact that, hey, how do I know this is top? I was wrong. I missed on 30, 40, 50 percent returns. And people are telling me there's two and three years to go on this. I got to get back in. And then you get back in at the top. So so I just caution people. Again, it's not advice. Everybody has to kind of figure out for themselves. But just know if you if you decide you're getting out early, don't get swept up into the emotion of it. Secondly, and treasuries will be, I think, at the top of the list of things that will protect you in the bust. There are very few things that aren't going to go down. And treasuries, I think, are going to be one. And that's both from the very short end all the way out. You know, if in fact rates are falling during the bust, as they should, the long duration is where you're going to make the most money. But it's also the place where, if I'm wrong, you're going to have more volatility. So but treasuries, I think, will top the list. FDIC insured savings, which means up to 250,000 per institution, should be safe. With the printing press, I can say with confidence that they will fund FDIC to whatever is necessary to meet their obligations, their liabilities. So you don't have to worry about, oh, gee, the government might fail, and they won't be able to cover it. Not this cycle. Another cycle, yes, but not this cycle. And that's why I'm not so concerned about a sovereign debt crisis. You know, we could have some sovereigns that are in trouble, but they have the printing press. So those are really the things. Obviously, people with more experience can think about shorts and things like that. But for the basic person out there that doesn't have investment experience, treasuries will stand up, I think, in the bust. Savings accounts will, as long as you don't get beyond that. Will there be bail-ins possibly in Europe? We've seen that before, meaning that the deposit holder in the banks has to eat the loss, suffers. Here, I think it's far less likely. We saw in 2008-9, they'll step up, and again, they'll print money like there's no tomorrow to make sure that they can, you know, hold the consumer together. If you're in a pension fund that gets in trouble, we don't know. If you're in a money market fund, you know, the precedent is there that they went to the won't break the buck last time in 2008-9. I suspect we'll see that again, just because I suspect we're going to be printing money and looking for any place we can put it to hold the economy up. But we don't know that. It's not anything we can say for sure. But those are kind of the places, I think. If you're in junk bonds, if you're in equities, you know, just know what happens in these kind of conditions. They can lose a lot of money for you. Great thoughts overall and excellent conversation today, David. Tell us about Contrarian Macro Advisors. That's your letter. How can people subscribe and what's on offer there? Sure. I write a quarterly macro letter. You know, it's basically my forecasting letter. And I am on Twitter all the time or X all the time. So, you know, people can get a lot of my views there. The letter just allows me, it's a longer form, obviously, where I can explain my rationale better and people can better understand it. So it's not for everybody. You know, there's a cost to it. I think it's pretty reasonable cost given my track record. But that's for people to decide. And I'm more than happy to put out what I put out on X. I get people who subscribe once while saying, you know, you give away so much for free. And I go, yeah. But I will say my subscribers, basically, quarter to quarter, I hold on to 75 to 80% of my subscribers. So, you know, it's pretty good in that business, I think. Tells you that people do see value in it. You know, I've got people who've been with me for five or six or seven years. But anyway, you know, the letter is a macro letter. It doesn't provide advice. As I say all the time, I don't provide advice. I forecast the markets and the economy. And then people can sign up by direct messaging you on X, correct, to inquire about it? Yeah, thanks. If anybody has interest, all they have to do is send a direct message to me, what they call Xchat now. And I will provide details on the subscription, what information I need from you and how much it will cost, etc. Great. Well, I will put a link to your X account in the description below. David, as always, thank you so much for coming on the show. Yeah, thanks for having me, Jesse. Thank you for joining us today. If you're looking for great prices on gold and silver bullion products, look no further than ARK Silver, Gold, Osmium. Some of their prices are displayed on your screen right now. These are subject to change and well supplies last. So reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 307-264-9441 or by email at ian.arksgo.com and make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you and make sure to join the WhatsApp group for Commodity Culture. We've got a great community there, very active, discussing different mining stocks, investment ideas, sound money principles. And it's a way to access me directly. I'm also active on there answering questions. The link is in the description below. I hope to see you there and I hope to see you in the next episode.