Nolan McLean Is Fully Breaking Out...

Nolan McLean has fully broken out. The 25-year-old ace for the Mets has blossomed not only into their undoubtable best pitcher on the roster, but also one of the best pitchers in all of the National League and has been an overlooked name in the race for the National League Rookie of the Year. What's going on, guys? I'm Josh Byrne. You're tuned into Mets Digest. Guys, thanks for all the support over recent days, weeks, and months. 68% of you roughly are not subscribed who are watching these videos. So if you are one of those and you're enjoying the daily updates, or you just like following the Mets casually, all good here. Please do consider subscribing if you are not already. Now, David Stearns did not draft Nolan McLean. Nolan McLean was a byproduct of the 2023 draft when Billy Eppler was then the Mets GM. So Stearns can't claim McLean as his crown jewel, but certainly a crown jewel he has become. Because McLean made his debut last year in 2025 as the Mets were kind of cratering down to earth after their great start in the midst of that collapse. But the one saving grace, really, especially in that pitching rotation, was Nolan McLean. If you remember last year, guys, what was the main demise of the 2025 Mets? Not to rehash some really painful history, even though this season's been another disaster, but the Mets couldn't get any significant consistency and any contributions really that they could rely on from their starting pitching staff, except for Nolan McLean. Now, it was unfair for a rookie to be brought in from the minor leagues and be expected to carry the heavy workload of a frontline guy right out of the gate for a team in the playoff race, but that's how things shook out and that's how things needed to be for Nolan McLean, and he took advantage of it. And he was asked once again to enter himself right into the limelight during this past year's World Baseball Classic, where I thought he pitched really well. I mean, you have to consider he's going up against the top athletes in the world on the biggest stage outside of the World Series, really, and he held his own. And for those reasons, the combination of the debut last year, him being under the bright lights, starting for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, the expectations were justifiably so through the roof. And I think early on in the season, things hit a bit of a rocky road for him, and that kind of took him out of a lot of people's rookie of the year race, out of a lot of people's viewpoint of the best pitchers in the National League. Those were short-sighted viewpoints because what he has done in the past month-plus has been nothing short of dominant. JustBaseball was the first source we're going to bring up today that put this into perspective, saying Nolan McLean is the ninth pitcher in the last 15 years with a sub-3 ERA and 225-plus strikeouts in their first 34 Major League Baseball starts. Ninth player. Think about all the pitchers that have come and gone in the past 15 years, and teams are using more starting pitchers than ever before, and in the past 15 years, he is only the ninth guy to do that. Sub-3 ERA, 225-plus strikeouts, first 34 starts. Five of those pitchers have been New York Mets, which frankly is incredible, but also really isn't that surprising. We all think back, of course, to the 2015 days, you know, the Matt Harveys, Noah Sindergaard, Steven Matts, even though Steven Matts wasn't there, just that young generation being brought up. Jacob deGrom, of course, and it kind of makes sense that there's five New York Mets on this list, but you can't forget about Kodai Senga. Kodai Senga was phenomenal in 2023, the best season by far of his career, really the only season where he stayed healthy and pitched at the top of his game from start to finish. And now Nolan McClain, and this is going back to last year when he made his debut because he obviously hasn't accrued 34 starts just this year, but because he had such minimal time last season, he's still qualified as a rookie this year, which means he's eligible for the rookie of the year award. And let's see how he stacks up. I mean, if you look at his top line numbers this season, according to baseball reference, he has a 2.4 war, a record of 9 and 8, an ERA just over 3.2 across 26 starts. Now he's at 168 strikeouts in 148 and two thirds innings. He's very much destined to get to that 200 number. That's a big number. It's a big deal. And look, starting pitchers are going shorter into games than ever before. And in the vast majority of Nolan McClain's past starts, he's been a six-inning machine. It seems like every single time, I believe it's nine of his past 10 starts, he's made it to six innings or longer. Most of them right around six innings, but just getting there, and this is going to sound kind of pathetic, but just getting to six innings is an achievement within itself. And the fact that he's getting there so consistently is something to behold. Now, during this dominant stretch, during the 10-game period, he's put up a 197 ERA. Has he gotten some good luck there? Probably, but that's going to happen when you put up an ERA that good. And his baseball savant page, and this is for the entire season, it's pretty impressive. He has an electric fastball. The off-speed and breaking pitches, I don't think they grade out overwhelmingly well just because he struggles to command those pitches at times, which can lead to more walks, which can lead to hit batsmen. Something that he really has struggled with early on in his career is the hit batsmen, but that again has also improved during this stretch. Now, another source that puts in perspective just how well he's doing is Mike Peters. Now, this is cut out on the right here, but essentially what it's showing is every single time that a Major League Baseball rookie pitcher finished a season with over 180 innings and over 200 strikeouts, they have either won Rookie of the Year or won the Cy Young. Now, Nolan McClain's not going to win the Cy Young, but there is definitely a decent shot that he hits this. There's a decent shot that Nolan McClain will get 180 innings pitched, 200 strikeouts, and an ERA under three. He's already at 148, so he needs about 32 innings to get to that 180 inning mark. I think, frankly, it's probably a bit of a coin toss whether he gets there, but I think it's definitely possible if he gets five or six more starts, and the 200 strikeouts I feel very confident in. Now, unfortunately, I don't know if he's going to have enough for Rookie of the Year because of those early struggles and also because of, frankly, a relatively strong rookie class. I do still think that J.J. Weatherholt is the frontrunner, and also Carson Bench has been on fire, Nolan McClain's teammate. But at the very least, Nolan McClain is a guy that should be spoken of more in the Rookie of the Year race. Danny Abriano points out, the only starting pitchers in the National League who have a better batting average against than Nolan McClain, Jacob Mizorowski and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Only starting pitchers in the National League who have allowed fewer hits than McClain, Mizorowski, Yamamoto, Sale, and Corbin Burns. McClain has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League this season, rookie or otherwise. Yeah, I mean, look, there's been some discussion to what extent is Nolan McClain a frontline starter. Is he just a guy who's developing his stuff and has the potential to develop into that ace, or is he already there? And with this recent run, I mean, the results show that he is basically a top seven pitcher, top seven starting pitcher in the National League this season. And that's certainly something that the Mets can build on. Whether McClain wins those awards or not, I think it's fair to say with the trajectory that McClain is going on, he has delivered the breakout season that we wanted and expected to see from him. But let me know what you guys think on Nolan McClain down in the comments section below. What do you think of his season? Where do you think he goes here? Because he's still a young guy, still developing. Just how good can he be? Comment below, let me know. And as always, guys, let's go Mets.