Phoenix's Housing Market Is About To Change Forever

Listing prices in Phoenix just logged the 26th straight month of year-over-year declines, so naturally the national headlines are calling it a two-year slide. But sales volume in June 2026 finished about 8% higher than one year ago and active inventory was actually down by 5%. Falling prices and rising sales don't usually happen at the same time, so what's going on here? I'm Cody Romero, Arizona Realtor and Relocation Specialist, and I was actually born and raised right here in the valley, and I now help over 50 people each year buy and sell homes. My team and I spent the last couple of weeks going through the MLS numbers, the cron for data, and the builder activity neighborhood by neighborhood because, as I'll show you today, there is really no single Phoenix market. Instead, there are dozens of submarkets in the Phoenix metro area, and right now many of them are moving in completely opposite directions. If you can get ahead of this and know how the different areas are actually behaving, this is where you gain leverage as either a seller or a buyer. So in this video, I'm covering three main points. First, I'll show you the seven changes that are about to reshape the Phoenix market. Then I'll get into what each one of these means if you're buying a home here, and then what it means if you already own one in this area and you're thinking about selling. Our suburbs are not acting as one fluid market right now, and you really need to know how to approach each separate one. Buying or selling in Buckeye is going to be far different than buying or selling in Gilbert right now, and this is the mistake almost every article about the Phoenix market makes. It treats this place like one solid market, but the Phoenix metro is different from most other places. It's made up of roughly 45 different municipalities spread across a valley that takes over an hour and a half to drive to from end to end. Someone buying in Surprise and a buyer looking in North Scottsdale are honestly shopping in two economies that barely touch each other. So let's start with the change that gets the most attention and probably deserves the least. If you searched Phoenix foreclosures this year, you found something kind of alarming. Maricopa County residential foreclosures went from 83 in June 2025 to 134 in June 2026. That's highest June figure in seven years according to my data, and every doom and gloom account online ran with that. But the same report explains exactly what's behind it, and almost nobody quoted that part. Most of those foreclosures trace back to loans that first went bad in 2021 and 2022. This is the tail end of that cycle finally working its way through the courts. It's not fresh, distressed homeowners who just stopped paying, and the total volume is still well below where it sat before the pandemic. To give you some context, in 2019, Phoenix had over 1,800 foreclosure notices. Now, why does this matter to you? Well, because I have buyers calling me basically every month asking when the flood of cheap foreclosures is going to hit the suburbs out here. But it probably isn't coming. In a lot of cases here in Phoenix, owners either paid cash or put a big chunk down from selling a house in places like California or Colorado. There's very little leverage in those homes to unwind. These owners can really withstand a down market. But the number sellers should actually be watching is this one. In the second quarter of 2026, one in four listings in Maricopa County did not sell at all. That's the real story. Not distress, straight expiration on the market. So if you're a buyer, stop waiting for that fire sale of foreclosures that just isn't coming. If you're a seller, your competition isn't going to be a foreclosure down the street. Your competition is the fact that a quarter of listings won't sell at the price the owner picked. And that leads straight into what's happening on the new construction side, which honestly is one of the most important drivers right now in the Phoenix market, especially in certain segments. Imagine listing your home and having to compete with five brand new homes offering 4% interest rate incentives on your very same street. This is exactly what happened to a seller I just worked with last year. They had five new construction homes. And I'm not saying just in the same subdivision, literally on the same street. That's the reality out in the Buckeye and the West Valley corridor right now. And it's the toughest spot in my entire coverage to sell a home. Now this next stack kind of surprised me. Days on market in Buckeye actually improved just slightly to 79 days from 84 days before. And sales volume went up last month as well. So homes are still moving out there. They're just moving at a lower price. That's what happens when builders keep releasing new inventory. A builder can offer things that a resale owner just can't match on price alone. Interest rate incentives, closing cost credits, a brand new roof and a one year warranty. So how did we sell that house? Well, we stopped competing on price and competed on everything that the builder couldn't deliver. A finished backyard with mature landscaping. In Arizona, that's easily $40,000 to $60,000 from bare dirt. We also emphasize the post build upgrades that have already been done. Plus there's no six month wait for the house to be built. We sold it before any of the builder homes on that street actually closed. The West Valley is a great place to live and homes here are still selling. But if you own out there and you're planning to sell in the next two years, you need a real strategy, not just a sign in the front yard. So far we've covered two changes in the Valley market and we've still got four even bigger changes to go. But let me tell you about maybe one of the most common questions that I'm asked. I take a buyer out to see a home and they see it just built in 2024 and the owner is already moving. They immediately ask me if it's a red flag and why the seller is moving. And here's the real truth. You can spend 30 hours reading forums and still pick the wrong neighborhood and city in the Valley. And that's what happens in a lot of these cases. You see owners move on so quickly because they picked the wrong location for them in the Valley. A lot of these people are moving in from out of state and they really don't know where they want to land. The neighborhood that looks best on paper might be the one where you'd be packing your bags and moving again in a few years. And picking the wrong neighborhood doesn't cost you a weekend. It costs you a second move. And with over a hundred neighborhoods and different towns to choose from, narrowing them down is honestly the most important step in your transition. If you want to avoid this second move, take my free Phoenix neighborhood quiz. It takes a few minutes and it runs your budget, your must haves, and your deal breakers against over 100 Phoenix area neighborhoods, then tells you which ones actually fit and where the trade-offs for that specific neighborhood are. Now let's jump into the next change because this one might be the most important one on the list. And this one is something I'd bet money that most agents in Phoenix just cannot explain to you right now. In general, homes above 1 million dollars in Maricopa County have almost four months of supply. On paper, that's a major buyer's market. Slow and soft. Now let's take a look at Scottsdale specifically because, like I told you earlier, the Phoenix Valley is all about the micro markets and this might be the best example. Scottsdale's median sales price in the first quarter of 2026 hit $980,000, which is up 9% year over year. And it happened while much of the valley was going sideways or even down in most cases. April closings in Scottsdale also rose 11% year over year. Let me say this again. Home prices in Scottsdale are up over 9% year over year. In the same market where the broad million dollar plus tier looks pretty slow. So what's going on here? Well, the upper end of this market just doesn't run on mortgage rates. It runs on equity and cash. A large share of my clients arrive with cash or 20% down or more from selling a house somewhere like California or Washington. So when rates move in the wrong direction, those buyers don't flinch. They were never borrowing much money in the first place. Meanwhile, the middle of the roughly $400,000 to $700,000 is full of buyers who are very rate sensitive. That's the segment of our market that is really stalled. The same exact market with two completely different engines. And here's why this actually matters to you. If your agent quotes you one valley wide number, they will give you the wrong advice on both ends. They might tell a North Scottsdale seller that the luxury market is soft when the top tier is really speeding up. And then they'll tell a buyer in surprise that Phoenix is red hot when two thirds of those sellers are actually taking less than asking. I track this city by city and by price segment, because that is the only level where the numbers really mean anything in Phoenix. All right, now let's talk about Peoria because it looks completely stable on the surface, which is kind of why it's so interesting. The citywide median for single family homes in Peoria is up roughly 1% year over year. Homes are selling about 50 to 52 days. Nothing scary about any of those numbers, but look underneath. In April, 65% of Peoria homes sold below asking price, meaning two out of every three sellers took less than what they asked for. In a market, the headlines call flat. If you're buying in Peoria right now, know that two thirds of sellers are accepting less than asking and a reasonable offer is not really going to insult anyone. Ask for those concessions, ask for repairs. And if you're selling in Peoria, it's all about pricing correctly. This is a desirable market, but pricing has never been more important. Now, if you're at all considering the North Valley or you live there now, what's coming next is the thing you need to hear. TSMC is a big deal in Phoenix. It has grown from a $12 billion commitment in 2020 to $165 billion today. This is the largest foreign investment in a greenfield project in US history. Six semiconductor wafer fabs and construction running through 2028, right along the I-17 corridor. So here's exactly what changes the housing math in this area. The average TSMC process engineer in Arizona makes between $120,000 and $150,000. These are permanent high income jobs and thousands of them. So if you own a home along the I-17 or North 303, that's a real tailwind. Properties within about a 15 to 20 minute commute of TSMC are suddenly in a different market than they really were two years ago. And this brings me to a good point that I wanted to mention. If you already own a home in Phoenix, you need to keep an eye on your home values because things are changing quickly. In some areas, the change is going to be good. Others are going to hurt your value. If you want to keep an eye on your values, just scan the QR code or click the link in the description. And this system will track it for you for free. And it's going to send you a monthly report telling you exactly what is affecting your specific home. Now for buyers looking towards North Phoenix, the play is probably getting positioned before that demand fully shows up. For many neighborhoods in this area, the demand just hasn't fully hit yet. Getting in now really might position you very well for the future. You're buying in proximity to one of the biggest economic engines in the entire country right now. All right, let's move to one of our suburbs that you can consistently find on lists of top places to live in the entire country. But it's sitting strangely flat right now. And flat is not the same as bad. But flat catches sellers off guard. And this is what describes Gilbert. Gilbert is largely built out at this point. There isn't the same wave of raw land being converted into new master clan communities that you see in further out areas like Queen Creek or Bucca. That scarcity is definitely working in favor of Gilbert resale sellers right now. With less new construction competition, well maintained resale homes in established Gilbert neighborhoods are really holding value and demand better than a lot of the new newer growth corridors in the Phoenix Valley. Buyers who want that East Valley lifestyle, top rated schools in mature walkable feel are often choosing Gilbert. But the year over year median sales price in Gilbert is almost perfectly flat. It'll go up one and a half percent one month and then down 2% the next month. But there are a few interesting numbers under the surface that might indicate the direction Gilbert is headed. First is the number of homes sold, which is currently up over 9% year over year, which is a pretty big number. We also see the days on market shifting downwards now toward just 45 days, which is one of the lowest in the entire valley, if you can believe that. For sellers, this is great news. Your home values are holding steady, which is a win compared to a lot of the Phoenix Valley and demand is clearly increasing. So if looking to sell and an agent tells you that the median days on market is 70 days and expect to sell your home at a major discount, you might be working with someone who doesn't really look at the numbers for your specific area. For buyers, the takeaway is that Gilbert's premium reflects a real scarcity of new inventory and that scarcity tends to support long term value. If we truly do enter a declining market, highly sought after markets like this tend to be far more insulated than some other locations. So look at what we just covered today. Foreclosure is rising for a reason that has nothing to do with 2026. Builders pulling back in surprise while resale inventory climbs. Scottsdale far outperforming most of the market. Two thirds of Peoria sellers taking less than asking. And Gilbert staying steadily strong with signs of incoming demand. And the craziest part of it is that all of these are in the same metro area and a lot of you are just going to look at the news headlines and figure the Phoenix market moves as one solid unit. I think I've shown you today how important these micro markets actually are, whether you're buying or selling. If you're moving here to the valley from another state, you really need to prioritize narrowing down our different locations so you can focus in on your search and make sure you find the actual right fit. I've made this super easy for you. It's my Phoenix neighborhood quiz. You fill it out in like three minutes and it gives you specific recommendations on what neighborhoods you should consider for your preferences. And this isn't just a generic quiz. It compares against 100 different neighborhoods and it uses AI to optimize your recommendations. It's completely free and it should be really helpful for you. You can scan this QR code or click the link in the description to get your results. And if you already own a home here, please make sure you use an agent who understands the micro markets within our huge metro area because it makes a difference. If you'd like to work with me, I'd love to help you get your home sold. So reach out to me anytime. Thanks for joining me today. I really hope this video was helpful for you and I'll see you at the next one.