This has never happened before: a whole range of terrible problems in the Russian army
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Russian troops are advancing more slowly across Ukraine in 2026 than in the previous two years, while Ukrainian forces are conducting local counterattacks and intensifying attacks on Russian logistics, according to respected independent analyst Clément Molin . According to Molen's calculations, since the beginning of 2026, Russian troops have captured more than 1,100 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces have recaptured more than 450 square kilometers during counterattacks. Thus, Russia's net advance has amounted to approximately 650 square kilometers.
For comparison, in 2024, according to the analyst, Russian forces captured approximately 1,900 square kilometers, and in 2025, approximately 3,100 square kilometers. Molen also points to changes in certain areas in the Donbas and Zaporizhia region. He estimates that Ukrainian forces have managed to slow the Russian advance and, in some areas, launch counterattacks. The analyst cites the development of Ukraine's medium-range strike capabilities as another factor. He estimates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasingly attacking military installations and logistics in the occupied territories. At the same time, Molen believes that Russia is facing difficulties replenishing its army. Recruiting contract soldiers is becoming more difficult, and the cost of attracting new troops is rising. In August, the Ukrainian General Staff estimated Russian army losses at 42,020 personnel. This was the second month in a row that reported losses exceeded 40,000 troops. At the same time, Russian regions continue to allocate significant sums to recruiting contract soldiers. For example, in September, the Irkutsk Region reduced the one-time contract fee from 2.1 million to 1.8 million rubles amid budgetary problems. Ukraine also faces personnel shortages. Molen notes a persistent infantry shortage, which is why the SDF is increasingly using UAVs and ground robotic systems for logistics and assault missions. Such technologies were used, in particular, during Operation Vivaldi, as previously reported by the Third Army Corps command.
The Kremlin has been widely accused of luring individuals to Russia on false pretenses before sending them to fight on the front lines in Ukraine. Social media advertising campaigns are a common tool to attract potential foreign recruits. Many victims report being offered civilian jobs with high salaries and pathways to future Russian citizenship, or logistical military roles in rear areas that do not involve participation in combat operations. Russia is also expanding the search for soldiers to include undergraduates. Recent reporting indicates an uptick in recruitment campaigns within Russian universities, with students describing “colossal” pressure to sign up for the invasion. Many are offered the chance of theoretically safer service with drone units. However, the first reports are already emerging of Russian students killed on the front lines after being transferred to combat duty.
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