Ukraine created unsolvable problem for Russia in the Black Sea; major blow to the Russians at sea
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Bloomberg reports that Russia's attempts to salvage grain exports by rerouting them from the Black Sea to Baltic and Arctic ports are failing. Amid the Ukrainian attacks, Moscow is developing alternative routes, but only about a tenth of total shipments pass through them. Alternative routes increase the railway delivery distance by an average of 1,500–2,000 kilometers. According to Kpler, the five main alternative ports shipped approximately 1.3 million tons of grain and oilseeds from July to September. By comparison, Russia's main Black Sea ports were capable of handling approximately 12 million tons during the same period . "The harsh truth is that, essentially, there are no export routes capable of replacing the Black Sea. There's no magic trick that will somehow double exports. It's simply impossible," said Andrey Sizov, director of the analytical firm SovEcon. The main obstacle is the cost of transportation. Grain from Russia's southern regions must be shipped to northern ports through a significant portion of the country. The sea route to major buyers in Africa and the Middle East is then extended, further increasing costs. Starting in October, Russia plans to begin exporting grain via Murmansk, which adds another 2,700 km. Russian exporters surveyed by the agency believe that additional government subsidies will be required to make this route profitable. Expanding supplies also requires warehouses and specialized grain terminals. Their construction requires significant investment and time, and the approaching winter complicates efforts to quickly create the necessary infrastructure. Media previously reported that Russian grain is trapped: Moscow is losing even "friendly" markets. Russian economist and blogger Vyacheslav Shiryaev writes about this in his blog. If the problem is not resolved, millions of tons will rot due to a lack of storage capacity for excess grain, which cannot be exported abroad. When it became clear that Russian farmers had only the Baltic Sea left, Moscow rushed to Latvia and Lithuania for additional transshipment volumes through their ports. Russian grain exporters flocked to the Baltic states with requests for transshipment. Terminals in the "enemy" countries received several requests a week, with the volumes in question reaching several million tons for the 2026/2027 season. For example, Lithuania's total exports are approximately 4 million tons, and they were offered a comparable amount.
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