1 Month to Midterms: Trump’s Numbers Flash Major Warning Signs for Republicans

Oct 9, 2026

Just **one month remains before the midterm elections**, and the latest voter numbers are raising major questions about Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Harry Enten breaks down Trump’s approval in key Senate states, the dramatic shift among independent voters, Republican voter-registration gains, the collapse in Trump’s support among immigrant voters, and the surprising Senate race unfolding in Kansas.

Trump is reportedly **21 points underwater in key Senate states**, while independents have shifted dramatically away from him. At the same time, Republicans have made significant registration gains in several important swing states.

Could Trump’s weak numbers create a midterm nightmare for Republicans — or will the GOP’s strong voter-registration position help protect them?

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