Ethiopia's push for Red Sea access risks regional war, warns former US official

To the fighting in northern Ethiopia now, where federal forces and their allied fighters have been making significant gains. They've now entered the ancient city of Axum, further expanding their territorial control across the Tigray region. The pro-government Tigray Peace Force says Eritrean troops operating there have suffered heavy losses and they've retreated towards the border. They also claim that Eritrean forces suffered heavy casualties, but Eritrea has rejected that. The Ethiopian army and allied groups are now in control of several cities in the region, including Adigrat, Shire, Adwa and the border town of Zalambessa. Earlier this month, Ethiopian federal forces recaptured Mekelle, Tigray's regional capital, after pushing back against TPLF fighters. Eritrea has denied allegations that its troops have entered northern Ethiopia and is supporting the rebel alliance. Tensions have also been heightened by the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's push for access to the sea. Eritrea fears Ethiopia could attempt to seize control of its Red Sea port of Assab, which was under Ethiopian administration before Eritrea gained independence in 1993. Joining us from Washington, D.C., is Cameron Hudson. He's a former director of African affairs at the National Security Council at the White House. Thanks for your time. So tensions with Eritrea are escalating. Ethiopia accusing Eritrean troops of occupying parts of its territory, Eritrea, calling Ethiopia, calling what's happening a declaration of war. Where do you see this heading? Well, right now it's at a very dangerous situation. The Ethiopians are essentially on the border with Eritrea. The Eritreans are on their back foot right now, as are the Tigrayans who were pushed out of much of Tigray in the last week by Ethiopian forces. We had a phone call, very importantly, last night by the Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, calling on him to restrain his forces and to not enter into Eritrean territory. I think the fear is that once the Ethiopians really move into Eritrea in a substantial way, they will be unencumbered and they will not stop until they take the port of Assab. This presents I think a very dangerous scenario because it it puts forward the possibility of redrawing one of the uh one of the national boundaries in Africa which is always a very dangerous uh scenario that could draw in countries from even outside the region so we're at a kind of critical juncture here right now and you're seeing diplomats try to to to draw back uh the tension but it's not yet clear how this is going to play out so if i understand you correctly, that promise, if I can call it that, that's been made by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vowing to regain access to the Red Sea, including through that port of Assab, you think that this then could potentially trigger a regional war? Or is it a legitimate economic demand that he has? Well, both can be true at the same time. You know, I think we have to remember Ethiopia is the largest country in the region, 140 million people. It has double-digit economic growth, and it feels like its economic growth is further constrained by not having dedicated Red Sea access, certainly for its commercial imports and exports, right? So you can argue that there's a legitimate demand and, in fact, that it would benefit the entire region by allowing Ethiopia to grow into that economic powerhouse that it has the potential to be. however uh it's a matter of how does it achieve that ambition and i think beyond that uh ethiopia has indicated that it has ambitions to be not just a commercial uh power on the red sea but a naval power to have a military presence on the red sea and that is i think you know very disconcerting and destabilizing to countries like egypt and eritrea who who fear uh the power of an unchecked Ethiopian army, both on land and at sea. And so these are the big questions that have to be resolved and that we are, you know, kind of concerned that Abiy Ahmed will take decisions on his own and create new facts on the ground that others in the region have to respond to. Look, both, I mean, worth remembering, right, that Ethiopia and Eritrea fought on the same side during the Tigray War in 2020. Why have diplomatic efforts failed to sort of address the underlying tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmar. And what's missing from current diplomatic efforts? Well, let's remember that the peace deal that ended the war in 2022 did not include Eritrea in that peace deal. It was a deal between the federal government of Ethiopia and the rebellion Tigrayan forces. Even though the Eritreans committed some of the worst atrocities of that war, they were left out of any peace process. And so, you know, we have to remember that because Eritrea has often acted as a spoiler on the outside of internal events inside of Ethiopia. I think the other thing that we have to remember is that even though there was an intensive period of international diplomacy to help us get to that ceasefire agreement in 2022, that diplomacy essentially ended there. And so on the implementation, arguably the more important aspect of the peace deal or any peace deal, you saw the international community essentially avert its gaze. It moved on to the next crisis in Ukraine and Gaza and other places, the United States, which had a special envoy for the region, got rid of that special envoy. There was a new presidential administration that came in that did not share the priorities of the old presidential administration in Washington. And so all of these things, I think, have contributed to the international community taking their eye off of the ball, not implementing the peace agreement and, you know, seeing the region slip, you know, back into a state of war. Cameron Hudson, thanks so much. You're joining us from Washington, D.C., this hour. Thank you.