Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Pick: Over 42.5 Total

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1 Video View·Oct 17, 2026
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Video Summary
AI GeneratedThe speaker analyzes a Big Ten matchup between Michigan and Penn State, two teams struggling with poor conference records. The discussion focuses on Michigan's dysfunctional offense and Penn State's slipping playoff hopes, concluding with a debate on which first-year head coach is more likely to be fired.
Let me stay in the Big Ten here.
Michigan-Penn State,
a combined 0-5 in Big Ten play.
A couple of year one head coaches at new programs,
Whittingham and Campbell,
who it feels like even getting this one won't really be enough
to salvage these seasons.
Penn State had what looked like a schedule so light,
even if you didn't believe in them,
they could crash the playoff.
They're now going to be scratching and clawing for bowl eligibility.
That's real.
That's real.
People are going to go, oh, that's not.
No, no, it's real.
They lose here.
They're going to be dogs at Washington.
You don't have a lot of breathing room.
So Michigan on the other side of it have group chats leaking
or they hate the offensive coordinator.
It's not Bryce Underwood's fault.
This is a six-point number here.
What I ended up doing, maybe I'm nuts.
I played over.
I played over 42 and a half.
The bye week for Michigan should have spent entirely
on getting this offense right.
They have these weird moments where they can move the ball,
and then turnover, sack, something foolish happens.
The Nittany Lions right now
are also leaving some points on the board here, I feel.
And their game against USC was closer than
a 31-23 final score suggests.
Rocco Beck is not amazing.
I think he's good enough, though, against a low number at 42-and-a-half
for these two teams to get through it.
That Penn State defense might not be all that good.
Northwestern ran wild over them.
I don't think USC had too much issues here.
I'm playing over the 42-and-a-half, Dave.
See, Penn State's schedule is easy until you lose the games.
Once you lose the easy ones, the schedule gets significantly harder.
It's how you go from being Behrman's pick to jump into the playoff
to a team fighting for bowl eligible.
That said, I cannot consciously in any way,
shape, or form tell anybody on this planet
to lay six and a half with Michigan against anybody,
including my son's seventh grade
flag team.
You just can't lay six
and a half with an offense that's playing that bad under an
offensive coordinator evidently nobody likes
with a quarterback that can't throw the ball
under a first-year head coach that's already being run out the door.
You just can't lay it.
But I do have PTSD from now being 0 for the season
and picking Penn State games.
So when I saw Penn State-Michigan, I immediately said,
let Kevin have this one
because I want nothing to do with either one of these teams
because I can't seem to pick a Penn State game right,
and I'm not laying six and a half with Michigan.
Your over is not the worst play in the world,
but I can also see this being two-nothing Michigan
because both these teams are terrible.
So I'm out on it, and I'm going to let you play it.
Let me ask you this, though.
Which of these coaches do you think is in more trouble
of potentially being a one-and-done hire?
Of the two, I would say Whittingham's more in danger.
He's a lot older.
I think the Michigan alums
are wondering why Michigan went in this direction.
It was kind of going to be a holdover until
they could find the next great coach.
Well, it's not going to be much of a holdover if you miss a bowl game.
As far as Matt Campbell and Penn State,
he brought over a whole bunch of players from Iowa State.
You've got to give it a little bit of time.
He's an up-and-coming coach.
He's someone that everybody else wanted.
i think if this was next year
and not 2025 James Franklin would still have a job because
losing a couple of games in the middle of the year
but still making the playoff as Penn State
could have done last year you won't
that is the one thing about the playoff Kev that might work
coaches might get longer leash because they're making playoffs
but i just think you've got to
give it time with Matt Campbell i'm
not so sure you get that with Kyle Whittingham
Thank
you.
