Would you give Putin 30% of Ukraine to avoid World War Three?
1 Video View·Oct 18, 2026
What do you want from our Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary?
I'm absolutely delighted that LBC's distinguished
and sagacious US correspondent, Simon Marks,
joins me live in the studio.
Simon, let me ask you this.
Is there a simple explanation for Donald Trump's volatile about-turn?
And is it simply plunging popularity in the midterm elections
happening at the same time?
Well, Vanessa, it's lovely to see you.
Distinguished and sagacious, I have definitely been called worse
and will be again, I have no doubt.
Look, Donald Trump, when he says that Volodymyr Zelensky
is the problem, that it's much easier to deal with Vladimir Putin.
Well, of course it is, because Vladimir Putin says we can stop
this war tomorrow if Zelensky will give me 30 percent of his territory.
And Zelensky is the problem because Zelensky says,
I'm sorry, I'm not giving you 30 percent of your territory.
I'm my territory. I'm not giving you
eastern Ukraine. I'm not giving you Crimea.
and so that's why Donald Trump takes the view
that Volodymyr Zelensky is a problem
because Donald Trump wants to be in a situation
where this diesel deal that he agreed
based on a single phone call with Vladimir Putin last Friday
a phone call that was taking place
without the knowledge of some of his senior cabinet members
is for Donald Trump the thin end
of what he hopes will become a very thick wedge
and that thick wedge is doing
as much American business with Russia as possible.
He wants to normalise, wants to go back to a situation
where American business is back in Russia, investing again,
despite the fact, of course,
that many leading captains of industry and finance
in the United States won't touch Russia with a barge pole
because they've already been through
that particular mill under Vladimir Putin
and in the case, for example, of some of the oil companies,
have had their assets expropriated by the Russians in the past.
But Trump wants to do business on a grand scale with Vladimir Putin.
And I don't know if you saw the interview that Tucker Carlson recorded
with Jacob Rees-Mogg a couple of weeks ago,
where Jacob Rees-Mogg sort of realizes, I think they may,
these two men, have gone into the interview thinking
that they were sort of political soulmates.
And Jacob Rees-Mogg realized very rapidly that that was not the case.
And at one point, Tucker Carlson is arguing
that the UK shouldn't be worried about.
why is the UK worried about Russia potentially engaging
in some kind of an attack on the UK?
Does the UK not realise that Russia
is a much larger economy than Britain's?
And Rees-Mogg intervenes and says,
wait a second, Russia is not a larger economy than Britain's.
It's a much smaller economy than Britain's.
And Carlson finds it quite difficult to understand that
because Carlson, I think, thinks the same way that Donald Trump does.
It's a vast country.
It's got all of these resources, all of this wealth,
even though vast amounts of it are untapped.
I want in there. And and so I thought that that Carlson interview
with Jacob Rees-Mogg was sort of an insight
into the mind of Donald Trump when it comes to Russia.
He wants the minerals. He wants the rare earths.
He wants the oil. He wants the gas.
And Zelensky is a problem.
He's an irritant.
This Ukrainian, what's Ukraine got for us, you know,
compared to what we could be getting out of Russia?
So that's one aspect of it.
And the other aspect of it, of course,
is that Donald Trump wants to be seen
as a big man on the world stage.
And the other big men on the world stage
are Vladimir Putin
and their president, Xi Jinping of China.
And even though he's obviously presiding
over a small country, Kim Jong-un of North Korea,
He likes these big authoritarian leaders
and he wants to be one of them.
And so he wants a seat at the table.
He's invited Vladimir Putin to come to the G20 summit, which Donald
Trump is going to be hosting at his own golf club in Doral, Florida.
You will read an awful lot in the next couple of months about the G20
summit in Miami because that's what the Americans are calling it.
It's not taking place in Miami.
It's taking place on the outskirts of Miami in Doral.
at Donald Trump's personal golf club.
Why are they calling it Miami?
So they don't have to keep mentioning the golf club?
Yeah, absolutely.
It's all designed to intimate that this thing's happening
in this major American city.
And of course, there will be some events taking place
in Miami city limits.
But the meat and potatoes of this
and the accommodation for many of the international delegates
arriving, leaders and their staff,
will be at the president's personal golf club,
which raises huge conflict of interest questions
to begin with.
How do we know that British taxpayer money is not somehow going
to flow into Donald Trump's business coffers
as a result of Andy Burnham attending this G20 summit?
But he's invited Vladimir Putin to it.
The Russians at the moment are not indicating that Vladimir Putin
is going to attend, but they haven't, I think,
formally rejected the invitation because Donald Trump wants
to be the man who brings him back around the table.
He wants him back in the G7.
So this is a breaking point with Europe.
You know, the idea that Andy Burnham is going to be able
to repair bridges between Washington and Kiev this time around,
I think is going to be incredibly difficult because we've moved
into a new phase of Donald Trump's presidency even before
the midterm election results are in.
and it is a phase in which he is going to go hell for leather
in achieving every remaining objective that he's got
in his remaining two years and, what is it,
27 months, 26 months left in office.
And one of those objectives is to see Ukraine dismembered
and peace with Russia resolved
so that he can get on and strike business deals in Russia.
And it's a period with no comparison
in terms of his unpopularity
and the plunging level of his popularity.
Is that correct?
Yes. I mean, 36% approval rating in some polls,
a little bit lower in others.
It is absolutely evident that the midterm elections
are going to be disastrous for the Republicans. They will,
99.9% certain to lose control of the House of Representatives.
And there is growing evidence to suggest
that they may lose control of the Senate.
it. Fox News had a poll out this week that showed how bad things were.
And one of the more interesting
aspects of it was buried in the detail,
because this is the first poll to have shown that the
number one concern among voters in America is now not the economy,
it's not the war on Iran,
it's not the price of petrol at the pumps,
it's corruption in government. 88% of Americans
responding to that Fox News poll,
said corruption in government was their number one concern.
And this is coming, of course,
at a time when Donald Trump's own financial disclosure forms
have revealed that in the 27 months since he returned to office,
sorry, the 20, what are we,
22 months, 21 months since he returned to office,
his personal wealth has swelled by $2.2 billion.
dollars. And that's the money that he's reporting
on the financial disclosure forms. We know that
his family is coining it by engaging
in business deals all over the world at a time when one of
his special envoys, Jared Kushner, his son-in-law,
is also running his own business and trying to
strike business deals in many of the places where he,
Mr. Kushner, finds himself negotiating and
mediating. Now, you can also argue
that some Republicans say that they're worried about
corruption in state government where democrats
are running individual states but the idea that
corruption in government is now the number one issue
of concern to american voters suggests that
this is going to be a massively problematic midterm election cycle
for donald trump and his
behavior on a whole array of different issues over
the last couple of weeks suggests that he knows it
and he's moving into a different gear already.
So many questions about his right or ability or freedom
to make these kinds of decisions and make these sorts of calls
and form these kinds of alliances and hold sanctions
that have been enshrined in law.
In my intro, I said American lawmakers are up in arms.
But what are the sanctions against President Trump?
Is it law-breaking?
I mean, what kind of autonomy is he meant to have?
That is exactly the question, right?
So he has exempted Russia
from a Russian sanctions bill.
I mean, if you exempt Russia from this Russian sanctions and Russian
diesel, there's not a heck of a lot left in the legislation.
And I think it's really important to underscore.
We've talked a lot on LBC in the last few days about the extent
to which Donald Trump has betrayed Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky has accused Trump of betrayal.
He's also betrayed many of his fellow Republicans
because that sanctions bill was the initiative
of the late Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina,
a very influential foreign policy voice in Donald Trump's ear.
And boy, are we now seeing how influential he was
because he's since passed away.
He came back from Kiev, his last mission to Kiev in the middle of July.
He came back, died shortly thereafter.
But in his last public pronouncement,
He said that he had secured White House
and presidential support for this Russian sanctions bill.
It was designed to choke the Russian economy further,
make sure that anybody that was propping up, in his words,
Vladimir Putin, was going to be themselves sanctioned and punished.
And he specifically cited countries
that were purchasing Russian energy.
What's Donald Trump done in the last week?
He struck a deal to buy Russian diesel,
a breach of sanctions law.
So he's now adjusted that.
You know, he's now said, OK, well,
we're carving Russia out of this if you want me to sign it.
Republicans in Congress are outraged.
They are all saying that this money from the United States
to Russia is going to finance the Russian war machine.
Trump won't answer the question as to whether any arrangements
are going to be made to prevent that from happening.
And so it's his fellow Republicans
that are trying to head him off at the pass
and are saying they want to pass legislation further
to try and tie his hands.
I wish you could see Simon Marks.
His eyes are virtually rolling around in his head.
He couldn't emphasise it more, could he really?
He's bringing much energy and incredulity and utter horror.
What a time to be alive.
I think the word is aghast. He's aghast.
It's at least one of the words.
The headline in the Telegraph front page today,
Musk approached Trump to slow Starlink across Ukraine.
What the heck is going on there?
Well, it certainly makes sense that that is possibly the case.
Elon Musk, of course, denied it.
We should explain that what we're actually talking about here
is something called Starshield,
which is the military-grade version of Starlink.
And the Ukrainians use it in large measure
to control drones and weapons systems.
And if you start choking it back, you obviously have less control.
And at times they have said they have had no control
over some of the weaponry.
separately from that there's
also the issue of intelligence sharing by the United States with
the Ukrainians which definitely according
to Zelensky has been reduced Elon Musk has said
Starshield is owned and controlled those units are all owned
and controlled by the U.S. government
I have no capacity says Elon Musk to choke them now there
is reporting in the Telegraph that
suggests that Elon Musk may at least have suggested
to Donald Trump at the White House
that he ought to think about doing this.
And that's certainly consistent with Musk's worldview.
Like Donald Trump, he has parroted
the Kremlin's talking points on Ukraine. He says that Zelensky
must hold a fresh election.
They both keep suggesting that Zelensky is illegitimate
in government. Of course, the Ukrainians say
it's completely impossible to hold an election
in their country at a time when every single day it
is being bombarded by the Russians.
He has embraced Elon Musk, Donald Trump's revisionist argument
that it is Ukraine attacking Russian oil refineries that has caused
the increase in the price of petrol and diesel in the United States,
not the much more consequential matter of Donald Trump's war on Iran
and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
So, I mean, look, I think this underscores the fact
that Elon Musk is an enormously powerful man
whose technology is the difference this week in life
or death for some Ukrainian civilians.
And what we've witnessed over the last few days
with the throttling of the intelligence sharing
and the throttling, whoever was behind it,
of their access to Starshield
means that there is now Ukrainian blood on American hands.
Those civilian deaths that occurred this week,
the Ukrainians will argue,
absolutely can be tied to decisions that were made in Washington.
And that's a staggering place.
Staggering.
And that's why Boris Johnson is saying we need a Western plan.
So, lovely listener, this is over to you.
What should the Western plan be?
What should be happening?
Because obviously it can't be right to sit tight
and watch this unfolding.
It's absolutely appalling.
All right, let's go to Dave in Liverpool. Dave, you're on to me,
but you're also on to Simon Marks, which is lucky for you.
Hello. Yeah, fantastic. Simon is a brilliant reporter.
I'm honoured to have him here.
So what would you what's your response to this?
Are you horrified? I am horrified and disgusted that I can't see how
the USA can possibly remain in NATO after what's happened here.
Because, you know, this action by Trump has emboldened Putin
and Russia into upping the attacks on Ukraine
and also possibly upping attacks on the rest of Europe.
You know, he's been virtually given the green light.
You know, it's absolutely outrageous.
um you know what makes me really angry is you see
the the cost of living that we're now uh
suffering in the uk i filled up
a car five minutes ago just talking about that in the break you may
well have heard us doing it how much is it what kind of car
and how much did it cost you it's an
old Renault Clio but it's one pound 77 for a liter yeah
so how much was the tank full uh i can bet
i can't fill the tank up um i'm putting 10 quid
at a time in the car you know okay i mean it's
madness and to blame Zelensky to save
his own skin trump's own skin this man is a schemer
he'd sell his own mother if she was still alive
um you know i think we've got to say to america
we're sick of this we need to tell them the truth uh
if we have to lose usa in nato well so be it
and Europe needs to strengthen itself.
Simon, is that a possibility?
Probably not a probability, but could that happen?
Look, I think Dave has put his finger on a number of different issues.
I mean, first of all, with regard to NATO,
I think that things have now moved to a point
where it is not going to be possible for European leaders
or even the NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte,
the ultimate Trump whisperer,
to drag Donald Trump back from the position
in which he has now placed himself.
And I think that this is almost certainly part
of a broader strategy essentially to collapse NATO.
The Americans have already been demanding that their NATO allies,
including the UK, fill out questionnaires that explain
the extent to which each member state of NATO is aligned
or not aligned with Donald Trump's policy viewpoints.
And this is all part and parcel of a six month review of the American
troop presence in Europe that is being conducted at the Pentagon
by Secretary of Defense, or as he calls himself, Secretary of War.
And Donald Trump calls him Pete, Pete Hegseth.
The point at which you are openly siding
with Vladimir Putin against Volodymyr Zelensky is the point
at which the NATO alliance, in all meaningful terms,
ceases to retain its current sort of structures.
And if we all wake up tomorrow, as we could,
and find that Russia has committed some kind of a hybrid attack
that takes the lives of civilians in a NATO country,
and this is what is so animating the polls, for example,
at the moment, and also the Baltic states, is Donald Trump going
to be there for NATO if NATO's other members decide
that it's time to go Article 5, you know,
the mutual defence covenants that lie at the heart of the NATO charter?
I think that is now very, very much in doubt.
I mean, more broadly, on the issue that Dave identifies
about the impact of the war on Iran,
because it is the war on Iran mostly
that is impacting the economy here in the UK,
I think it is amazing that there is still,
as far as we know,
a hesitation to speak truth to power to Washington.
I mean, we saw West Street meeting Pete Hegseth this week
at the Pentagon for the first time as Defence Secretary,
lots of talk about the importance of the bilateral relationship
and the abiding nature of the transatlantic alliance
but you know at some point you've surely got
to walk into the Oval Office
if you are Andy Burnham or Emmanuel Macron
or Friedrich Merz or Giorgia Meloni
and say Mr President you are destroying our economies
and we now have a list of demands for you
And the prime one among them is you've got
to wrap the conflict with Iran up.
I've got so much to ask you, but I think we should
let Mohammed Eleni have a bash at this, don't you?
Mohamed, why don't you speak? It's good to have you on the show.
Simon Marks is here and a gog.
Hi, Vanessa. It's always a pleasure coming on your wonderful show.
Thank you, my love.
I think, you know, we are in really,
really dangerous times in the world.
And what I don't agree with most things President Trump is doing.
But what he's, I believe,
is avoiding an inevitable war between Russia and Europe.
As the head of the British Army yesterday said, Sir Rory Walker,
that the politicians will soon have
to have frank conversations with the general public
and prepare us for war and sacrifices.
We, the general public, don't want that.
We don't want war in this day and age, in the 21st century.
And what President Trump is doing is trying
to bring Putin in so we can avoid that.
But, Mohamed, he's trying to do it at the cost
of dismembering Ukraine of 30% of its territory.
I understand that, you know.
If it comes down to whether to save the world and millions of people,
30% of Ukraine's territory, I'm sorry,
you know, if it has to go, it has to go.
But let me play devil's advocate, Mohamed.
Why do you believe that Vladimir Putin,
who would be enormously emboldened
by securing Russian sovereignty over Crimea and eastern Ukraine,
why would he stop there?
Well, I think, you know, Vladimir Putin is another issue,
you know, that we have to face.
May I ask something?
How would you feel, Mohamed, if it were Manchester,
Liverpool and Carlisle, for example, or Newcastle?
I would feel absolutely furious
and I would do anything to defend those cities,
you know, as a British national.
But what I've got to say is, you know,
we are heading for war with Russia.
Russia every single day is testing the resolve of NATO.
And President Trump sees that.
Hence why the CIA director made a visit to Moscow recently.
And we don't want that.
The public don't want that in the UK or wider Europe or the world.
And President Trump, you know, I don't agree with him in most things,
is doing a great job in avoiding that.
If he's doing bad in Iran, he's avoiding us from World War III,
whether we like it or not.
Mohammed, thank you. I just wonder,
do you see any accuracy at all in what Mohammed is saying there?
I'll tell you what I think
is really important about what Mohammed said there,
which is that if you look at what the head of the army said yesterday
about the need for a national conversation
in this country about defence,
that is something that several of the people
that were involved in the strategic defence review
under Keir Starmer's government
were directly telling John Healey
when he was Minister of Defence
and Keir Starmer at number 10
that you've got to begin a national conversation
because you can't suddenly find yourself
in a situation where the British public
is expected to accept
that we have to get involved
in some kind of a conflict,
that we're spending loads of additional money
on new gear for the army.
You can't do that without the national conversation.
And that's been delayed already by two years
as a result of Keir Starmer not beginning that national conversation.
As the army chief was saying yesterday,
you know, Andy Burnham really needs to start that conversation.
It's hugely important.
John's on the line in France.
John, hello.
Janessa, how nice to speak to you.
Very nice to speak to you.
What do you think?
What are you thinking?
What are you worrying about at this point?
Well, I want to put a completely opposing view forward.
Go on.
OK, I think the West is kind of in romantic love with Ukraine.
And what I mean by that is, as you know, romantic love.
You look at your partner, you don't see any negatives,
you don't see any blemishes, you don't see any warts,
you don't see any deformities.
OK, what are the blemishes? You better get that out.
What are Ukraine's faults, blemishes,
warts and the noise that Ukraine makes eating soup?
Tell me.
Thank you, but I want to finish my point first.
I think we get the point because you've got
to move on because we've got loads of calls.
No, you don't get the point.
That we're in romantic love with Ukraine and we see no faults.
Yeah, I get that bit.
Listen, I think that there was a solution
on the table right at the beginning of this.
And that was that Ukraine would remain neutral and that they would,
in that way, everybody would win.
Ukraine would win because they wouldn't have to spend half
their national product on military spending.
there would be 100,000, maybe 200,000 people still alive
and there would have been a perfect solution,
a neutral Ukraine as a buffer between Russia and the EU.
And I think that we are only going into this military solution
because it's the only way that the UK,
sorry, the EU will get economic growth.
We're being told all the time.
All right, OK, let me stop you there
and let's get a reaction from Simon.
Well, I don't think it's on the romantic love with Ukraine.
I think that we in the West are not only aware of, but have intervened
on numerous occasions in the past regarding corruption in Ukraine.
So I don't think that there is denial about what has been a very,
very persistent issue among successive governments in Ukraine
with regards to corruption and the disappearance of aid money.
And now, of course, questions about many of the millions
of dollars that have headed into Ukraine
and precisely how that money has been spent.
So I don't think there's denial about that.
I think that what the West is in love with is the notion that Ukraine,
like any other country, is a sovereign nation.
And Ukraine has the right to make its own decisions about what sort
of foreign policy it wants to have and to do so in an environment where
it's not on the receiving end of Vladimir Putin's war of aggression,
which has obviously devastated hundreds and hundreds
and hundreds of thousands of families in Russia
who have lost loved ones serving in this battle against Ukraine.
And so, you know, the notion that outside forces
are in a position to say to Ukraine,
right, you now must be a neutral nation.
Well, I mean, just as it would be up
to us to decide what we wanted to do,
whether we wanted to be a member
of the European Union, for example, or not,
equally Ukraine as a sovereign nation
surely has that right to make its determination
as well. John, thank you and au revoir. Let's go to
Michael in Sunderland. Hello, Michael.
Hi, Vanessa. I think a lot of
you people want to get yourself on YouTube and do a bit
of history, what happened to
Russia and Hitler,
right? Because it happens to be exactly the
same happening if you're on a boat. I'm
going back 80 years ago, obviously, but it's
apparent with what's happening now.
Finland, Poland
were all carved up before anything
happened and i think that's what trump is doing with putin right
but i put trump is a little bit
like stalin where he's thinking oh no but we've got
a deal he doesn't think putin is clever in
the name and he's going to turn his back on them
because i tell you what all the rest of europe
should get together now stand up there
and we're not all going to put the money in we didn't have
the money for the second world war
was neville chamberlain's peace in my time and all that
rubbish we have got to stand up for ourselves
because i tell you what give five ten years
time, what do you think Putin's going to do?
He's going to run that country until he's
dead. I'm going to vote my grandson.
I'm 60-year-old. That's the one that gets about 25
years of my life. His grandson's
only six. Now, all these people want
to have a history lesson about what will happen
if we don't stand up to Putin now,
and the previous
expert who was on, I would have all
the EU countries, NATO,
in Ukraine, I've always soldiered
in there for this exercise.
That sounds like what Boris Johnson's calling
for today in his column, where he says
We need a Western solution. That sounds like what you're offering,
at least a plan for a Western solution.
Simon Marks, what do you make of what Michael's just said?
Well, look, I mean, I think that Donald Trump definitely wants
to be a president of the United States who expands America's territory.
He's not joking when he says he wants Canada to be the 51st state.
He's not wasn't joking
when he said he wanted Greenland to come under U.S. auspices.
And indeed, he claims that the agreement that has now
been struck over Greenland basically guarantees American involvement
in Greenland's affairs in perpetuity.
He admires past presidents who have expanded America's frontiers
and added to its territory, particularly in what he refers
to as its primacy in the Western Hemisphere.
So in that sense, he's all about splitting the world up.
You know, I mean, you could see a certain set of circumstances
in which he says, I'll take Canada and the Chinese can take Taiwan
or I'll have Greenland and, you know, and so on and so forth.
So, I mean, I think
that is that's where Donald Trump's mind is in all of this.
And, you know, yes, Europe is going to have to decide how it is going,
what what degree of commitment it is prepared to make to Ukraine
in an environment in which the United States is bailing on Zelensky
and adhering itself to Putin.
But we also have to bear in mind that by the middle of next year,
Marine Le Pen may well be the president of France.
She says she's going to cut all aid
for Ukraine within six months of coming into office.
The AFD are making huge inroads in Germany.
Georgia Meloni in Italy has got a problem on her far right.
you know where we sit today uh october 2026 may
not be where we find ourselves in terms of our
relationship with european governments in just
a matter of you know six eight nine months time so
you know the opportunity to make any decision today exists
but you've also got to be mindful
of the fact that there could be huge political change
in Paris in Berlin in Rome and in other
capitals that leads to a very very different series
of conversations let's go to Matt in
Brighton who's on the line Matt hello good afternoon
to you oh hi Fenna it's very good
to talk to you hope you're well thank you i'm fine tell me tell me
your thoughts on on Putin
and Trump or the other way around well Trump oh god i'm sick
of hearing about him seriously i
just had to google it i just said to your researcher
who the heck voted for him his
polls ratings are down
and uh you know he's getting to a certain age where he needs to
move to one side i think and retire
but he's causing a lot of problems for us for everybody
and uh you know you go out on the street this evening
when you finish your hard shift you're
working three hours on LBC and i just think you know people look sad
and you know that you like
someone just called up and putting 10 pounds
of fuel in their car the actual fuel is coming from
Norway not coming from Ukraine
but uh i can't say what i want to say but you can get the gist
Donald Trump is a big stirrer
and he's causing a lot of problems for us but someone we need to
cut ties from him i mean interestingly during
the break, someone was saying to me that he
thinks that um that he won't that Trump won't mind
a defeat in these midterms in terms of
and Congress etc no i think
that's right i mean i think he's pricing it in and i think what we're
already witnessing is the Donald Trump that we
are going to be witnessing and i've got bad news
uh for you because he's not going anywhere he's got another 26 months
to go i mean we have to
remember we're not yet even halfway through
his second term in office i think that uh you know
with Republicans on Capitol Hill developing a bit
of spine particularly for example over this
Russia sanctions legislation
and saying that they're going to try and pass more legislation
to constrain him, and with it being evident
that the Republicans are about to suffer a substantial defeat
in the midterm elections, in a way, he almost would prefer
to find himself facing a Congress that is controlled by Democrats
because he'd be able to make them his new target,
he'd be able constantly to tell the country that they're radical left,
they're trying to bring Marxism and communism to the United States,
even though, of course, they are not.
And I think he relishes that kind of a fight.
It's more of a it's more of the kind of bloodthirsty competition that
he enjoys than having to deal with disquiet among his own Republicans.
And as everybody can see, I mean,
if you watch what's going on in these midterm elections,
if he had tried to be less useful to Republicans seeking election
in two and a half weeks time, I'm not sure what more he could have done
because he has been utterly useless in terms of providing them
with any fodder to assist in their campaigns.
And I think one has to look at it
and say that for whatever psychological reasons,
he is indeed indifferent to the outcome of these elections
and also wants the Klieg lights of publicity always on him.
So everything is about him rather than about these individual lawmakers
in battleground, critical races all over the country where
the composition of Congress is going to be determined.
Thanks, Matt. Let's go to Seamus in Wellington. Hi, Seamus.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much.
Pleasure. You're on to Simon. What would you like to say?
I just wanted to thank you for the quality
of the context for the debate.
The whole relationship with NATO has got
to be survived over the next two years.
I'm really sorry to say this out loud, but this war has now been lost.
And all we can do from a European perspective is survive Trump,
try and hold NATO together and try
and make some sort of semblance of Ukraine
post-Trump, where we can then
have a proper
and mature relationship and a proper
global aspect to peace,
not this lunatic psychopath
who's carving up the
world along with Putin and
the Chinese. I want to ask Simon if
other people are seeing it in the same way as Seamus
about surviving Trump. I think, Seamus,
you make a hugely important point
and I'm sure that in the corridors of
power in various European capitals
the calculation that's being
made is we've just got to get through the next 26 months
and survive Trump. I mean, the question I
would have is what happens if we all wake up
and discover that J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio are running
things in the United States?
I mean, do we honestly think that this brand of Republican politics in
America is going to evaporate when Donald Trump leaves the stage?
I'm not convinced that that's
necessarily the case and I'm
also not convinced that it is entirely certain that on January the
20th 2029 the next American president will necessarily be a Democrat
so those calculations
have to be made they're very important
but they can't be guaranteed I just want to read you this
it's from Harley who says no disrespect to Simon
for his left of center anti-Trump positioning
but your discussion is missing the elephant in the room Europe
and others betrayed America over
dealing decisively with Iran,
which will have to be reckoned with at some point.
With oil flowing through the Straits of Hormuz,
Russian diesel falls away and sanctions stand.
Europe and the UK especially
have made themselves geopolitically irrelevant,
nowhere more so than in the Middle East,
where we're backing the wrong side of history,
the Iran regime.
Look, I preferred it when I was being called sagacious.
Look, I mean, there's an awful lot in there.
The overriding reality is
that Donald Trump's decision to go to war against Iran
emboldened as he was by Benjamin Netanyahu to begin that conflict
was carried out without any plan,
any calculation that assumed this was going
to be anything other than a cakewalk.
And I don't think it's Europe that is holding Donald Trump up,
back from completing the war in Iran
and bringing about regime change in Iran.
It is the reality of the circumstances that demonstrate
that you cannot win this war from the air only.
You've got to deploy ground troops
and there is no public support in the United States
for the deployment of ground troops in this conflict.
This is Donald Trump's mess.
It's not Europe's mess.

