Early Voting & the Fight for Turnout | Battleground Texas

The countdown is on, and the stakes in the Lone Star State have never been higher. From top-ticket races to the latest polls, campaign ads, and candidate interviews, we're tracking every move on the road to November. This is Battleground, Texas. Hello, everyone. I'm Rudy Kosky in Austin. I'm Stephen Dial in Dallas. I'm Greg Grugan in Houston. All right, guys, we're starting off with a somewhat minor October surprise. A surprise announcement that came just a few hours ago. President Trump is changing up his plans for his trip to Texas next week from Team Red. RNC officials say that President Trump is going to Corpus Christi instead of Waco on Tuesday. His Lubbock rally that same day is expected to go on as scheduled. Trump won McLennan County, where Waco is located, by 30 points in 2024. Early vote turnout there right now and in Bell County on a record-busting pace. So taking the Waco bypass may be more about numbers than anything else. Many experts believe South Texas congressional races that went Republican in 2024 could be up for grabs. So Corpus, with its red voting bloc, clearly a tactical pivot that could provide a springboard into South Texas battlegrounds. Greg? That news comes as polling shows the race for Senate is as tight as ever. A new Fox News poll shows State Representative James Tallarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton tied at 49% among likely voters. Now, back in September, Tallarico led the same poll by about two points. Out on the campaign trail today, both candidates said it will all come down to turnout. But every poll in this state, Fox just had one yesterday, so we're tied, is going to come down to the wire. You know early voting started Monday, then it's Friday, October 30th, how many of you all voted? Good, so I want every single person in the room to early vote and spend the next 10 days, 12 days, getting everyone out to the polls, every one of your friends. We can win, we will win if our people show up. We are gonna do something extraordinary, we are gonna do something historic. We are gonna shock the nation, we're gonna shock the world when we beat the billionaires and take back Texas. And in that same Fox News poll, about 28% of Republicans who identify as non-MAGA Republicans said that they will vote for James Tallarico. I'll talk to a TCU political science professor about that. The Fox News poll shows 28% of, quote, non-MAGA Republicans say that they are willing to vote for James Tallarico. Is this his only path to victory, Republicans voting for him? It is his best path. I mean, no Democrat has won statewide in Texas in three decades. And that means you've got to pull from Republican voters for a Democrat to win. Beto O'Rourke has been close in polls, but lost. Colin Allred was close in polls, and that result was really not close. So what should people know when they are looking at these polls before and after they go ahead and cast their ballot? I think you ought to look at these as just being a best guess of what might happen. It's a close race. It's a close race. It could go one way or the other. What polls do is they do tell you why people make the choices they make. But we rarely get to that point. So we keep reporting the horse race, but we really ought to step back from it and ask the why. So your observation about non-MAGA Republicans, that's incredibly valuable polling. It tells us where Tallarico has to go to get his vote. Good insight there. Now, the same Fox News poll also took a close look at the Texas governor's race. Incumbent Greg Abbott has a five-point lead over his Democrat challenger, State Representative Gina Hinojosa. that's the same margin that he had in the Fox poll last month now the governor is getting some blowback over a list that his campaign posted Monday it was claimed that 12 Democrat sheriffs from border communities were backing his re-election bid since then the sheriffs from Webb, Val Verde, Zapata counties have denied endorsing Abbott and want off the list now reached out to the governor's office and just about five minutes ago they called me back They said that those three individuals, those three sheriffs, did, in fact, endorse the governor, but are feeling pressure right now from the Democrat side and have backed off. So they're saying it's just politics as usual. Meanwhile, voters continue to show up in force for this midterm election. The numbers dropping on Wednesday show a turnout at levels similar to a presidential election during the first two days of early voting. the big turnout has both sides taking a victory lap on the Will Cain Show radio host Mark Davis said the numbers show enthusiasm from Republicans that some may not have expected Democrat enthusiasm was already baked in we knew there would be Democrat enthusiasm i don't know how much of that is necessarily Tallarico-led enthusiasm or just a general Trump Trump agenda we're tired of that we're tired of Patrick etc etc but the one thing that the high Republican the high overall numbers have been, you mentioned Montgomery, that's just north of Houston, McClellan is Waco. These are conservative areas, and the turnout is high there, then something is happening that I thought would happen all along, I can't guarantee or predict anything. And that is that conservative enthusiasm for Paxton, or conservative enthusiasm in general, has been underplayed, has been understated. Ken has what we might call some issues. But the main issues that he does not have is this either clear and only conservative choice. issues all right coming up we're just getting started we'll have more when battleground texas returns welcome back to the battleground if you feel like that you're seeing a lot of political ads this year you are ad tracking data shows that the Tallarico Paxton race is on track to be the most expensive u.s senate contest ever last month according to the filings from the fec billionaire elon musk contributed nearly 160 million dollars to a pro paxton PAC but he's not letting his money do all of the talking. In recent days, Musk made several social media posts about the Texas Senate race, showing support for Ken Paxton, others resurfacing past videos of James Tallarico calling him a creep and pure evil. Paxton himself responded to Musk, agreeing by stating there's something, quote, deeply wrong with the state representative, unquote. Tallarico had his own choice of words for Musk at a rally in Houston last night. Elon Musk is trying to buy it. this Senate seat in Texas. We just found out that he is almost single-handedly bankrolling this effort to install Ken Paxton in the US Senate and stop our movement here in Texas. Our movement is funded by 1.3 million individuals who have given their hard-earned money to our campaign ken paxton ken paxton is funded by one dude elon musk wants our land he wants our water he wants our wages he wants our tax dollars he wants his very own personal United States senator he is trying to buy Texas but on November 3rd we are going to deliver a crystal clear message to the world's first trillionaire Texas is not for sale well thank God he doesn't want our kitchen sink right guys you know politics can certainly turn on a dime Elon Musk was a Democrat darling before teaming up with Trump then he had to fall out with Trump then he made up with Trump Greg uh his company has saved astronauts gave us flying cars about he's created about 30,000 jobs here across Texas yet Democrats hate him so much they're going to vandalize Teslas what do you make of this senate race donation brouhaha and this anti-capitalism rage Rudy I just want to make something perfectly clear lack of greenbacks has not been Talarico's hold back his coffers have been flush from the get-go and continue to be so spare us the poor David versus mean old big money Goliath's shtick because it's just flat disingenuous And James, that's being kind. Talarico likes to pick and choose Some billionaires good, others evil. Voters, if you're not insulted, you should be. As for the anti-capitalism rage, it's as old as the human condition. The have-nots have been focusing their anger on the haves for centuries. Resentment that burns deepest during the thousands of affordability crises endured by mankind over the last 300,000 or so years At its core, is this one really any different, guys? Thank you, Methuselah. You know history. All right, let's build off what Greg just said Three big political boogeymen have been created this election cycle. Data centers flock cameras, and billionaires like Elon Musk. Now, to be fair, the Democrats have their own fat cat ATM club. Soros, Bloomberg, Pritzker, a lot of deep pocket tech and hedge fund guys. Even Talarico flip-flopped on his big bucks bashing going to New York, LA to get money from big dollar donors. So Stephen, here's my question. This seems like another hot issue that Republicans just flat out misplayed. They lost the political outside influence narrative, right? Yeah, I mean, and it's something that may be playing well with Democrats of this David and Goliath theme that Greg was just talking about and in my interview with Talarico on Sunday I asked him you also have a bunch of money it's not like it's a little old Talarico campaign and so hey both candidates are saying what they got to say to reach the candidates that they need to reach to influence the thoughts and minds that they need to influence Greg all right we're going to go down ballot to an unexpected battleground on the other side of this break welcome back all over the Lone Star State incumbent GOP lawmakers representing districts once considered safely Republican are finding themselves in pitched battles to hold their seats. Here in the Bayou City, State Representative Mano Diallo is a good example. The highly respected lawmaker representing affluent West Houston says he's boiled his message down to fundamentals, proven economic performance, and hard guardrails on local taxation. We have almost as much in savings as the constitution allows. We did the largest funding in public school education in history. We're focusing on public safety infrastructure and all those things that have made this community so phenomenal. And what's government's role? Let it happen. Don't over-regulate it. Don't over-tax it. Get a civil justice system that works and make sure that we protect our citizens and have a community where you can raise a family and prosper. The fact that commissioner's court increased our property taxes, not just now, the largest increase ever. They did it a couple of years ago and we already have an annual increase in their revenues just from appraisal increases and new development and new properties coming online. So they have a steady increase in revenue. The fact that now we've seen two big increases, 41% overall, in a time when we have this affordability crisis, right? We have this time where wages just haven't caught up. Hopefully a lot of this is temporary. Hopefully after the Iran war, we get back into check a little bit more, but it's real and it's real today. And what does Harris County do? They say, we're going to take more from you guys because we know best. I think that's insulting. Can you as a state lawmaker with your colleagues in Austin be a firewall against future abuses of this taxation power? And I think that might have been some of the motivation, because there's been talk that we're going to go into the legislature and make sure that when municipalities, local government, when they do a raise in a rate, in a tax rate, that those things need to go to the voter. And I think Harris County, thinking this may actually happen, they decided to jump the gun and do it themselves. And they did it before looking in their backyard, downsizing where they need to, making sure their house is in order. You look at their spending. Their spending has gone up tremendously. Okay, guys, Republican Mano Diallo looking to persuade local voters with kitchen table issues. Did not mention the president's name even once in our interview. And I suspect he has company among GOP colleagues in battleground races around the state. Stephen, agree, disagree? Very much agree. You got to do what you got to do to get that win. And then you can go back to supporting, talking about the president, tweeting about him, whatever you got to do. These state reps and state senators and local officials know their constituents best. They know when people aren't too hot on the commander in chief and know when people are OK with talking about him all the time. And it seems like for Mono Diallo and some others, they know that they need to talk about things that affect their voters. And it's spending kitchen table items or spending things that affect voters' pockets, Greg. Yeah, I'm going to pivot off that. Rudy, you've consistently pointed out that tossing one group of bums out only to discover that the replacements are worse may well be the Republicans' best reason for hope. what's your take on Mono's laser focus on economic competence and guardrails for excessive local taxation yes greg i'm agreeing with Steven it's all about the economy as we have pointed out for months now it was the big issue of course back in 24 and this year democrats redefined that same message under the affordability banner so Mono has the right game plan i believe in place The problem is, is that the leadership at the top of the Texas GOP, you know, they haven't been helping them out. And they wasted the entire summer defending Ken Paxton, tearing down John Cornyn. And as a result, it's now to remind voters who started the fire six years ago. But based on the early vote assessments, the GOP may have already lost the bulk of independent voters. So I'm expecting the next half. You got to get out, Greg. All right, guys, Harris County, one in four early voters thus far did not vote in the last midterm. Stephen, quickly, are you seeing the same in DFW? Man, we're seeing a different trend in DFW. We're seeing a lot of enthusiasm, of course. And, of course, we have to figure out who that enthusiasm is. Is it both parties? Is it one party? But I have been hearing from just grassroots people talking about new voters turning out to the polls. But we'll have to see what the final number is in two weeks. All right, take us to break, Steven. Yeah, coming up, our parting shots. All right, welcome back to Battleground, Texas. It's time for our parting shots. Mine, Greg gets on me for talking about sports, but it's a sport that y'all aren't going to think I'm talking about. The WNBA, my hometown, Atlanta Dream, are in the WNBA Finals, Game 3. So they're up 2-1. I just want to give a shout-out, show some love to women's sports. Hope the Atlanta Dream pull it off. All right, who's next? Yeah, but bad form. Both teams didn't come out for the national anthem and stand during that. They ran back into the locker room for it. Crazy stuff, crazy days. All right, my parting shot, Big Ben. Battleground involving border security there at the park. The fight has now gone all the way to the Supreme Court. Now, if you believe all the media accounts and accusations from anti-Trumpers, you'd think that giant wall was planned for all 500 miles of Big Ben border, even the famous River Canyon. Actually, the construction plan calls for only 17 miles of low-profile barriers in the park. They're not building a giant 30-foot wall or installing stadium-like lighting throughout the park. What they're doing is adding and improving about 200 miles of patrol roads, installing high-tech surveillance systems. Far cry from the claim that they're bulldozing the park. Paving paradise. Greg? All right, guys, a little breaking news here in the Houston area. Democrat Carmen Turner, the sitting Fort Bend County tax assessor collector, has been indicted on federal corruption charges, including fraud, conspiracy, and theft of public funds. The crimes, or alleged crimes, paying her mother's caretaker with taxpayer funds and having a family member on the county payroll who performed absolutely no work. Of course, folks here are questioning the timing of this announcement, exactly 12 days before the midterm. FYI, latest polling has Tallarico up in Fort Bend by 18 points. And President Trump underwater, 60 to 40. All right, that's all the time we have. You can see more of our interviews and segments by going to our YouTube pages. And keep the conversation going by interacting with us on social media. All right, with each passing day, the pressure is increasing on the battleground. Is an October surprise a big one coming? We'll see tomorrow at 3 on Fox Local.