How New York voters are feeling ahead of the midterms

Thanks so much for joining us, Mary, to talk about the results here. Jasmine, thank you so much for having me. One quick, I am the assistant director. Thank you for the promotion, but if my boss would be a little... Yeah, assistant director. Okay, sounds good. Thanks so much for the correction. No worries. And so first, let's get into the biggest takeaways from this poll. What did you all find? Yeah, well, the biggest takeaways right now is that the fundamentals really haven't changed. It's a double-digit lead for incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul. She is in our poll that came out this week. She has 55% support among likely voters in New York State. Bruce Blakeman, 41% in New York State. And what we're really seeing driving the candidates right now and likely voters and their choice are the issues. And cost of living and the economy are the top two issues among likely voters when it comes to how they're going to cast their vote. So combining that is 41% saying that economy-focused issues are the main for them. The third is immigration. And when you take a look at the people who say that cost of living or the economy are their top issues in deciding who to vote for. Hochul has an overwhelming lead over Blakeman. When it comes to immigration, Blakeman has an overwhelming lead over Kathy Hochul. Very interesting. I'm curious to know what could be driving the voters' opinions of Hochul's leadership. You know, it's interesting because when I looked at our poll from 2022, the last gubernatorial race when Kathy Hochul faced a Republican named Lee Zeldin. Her ratings were pretty much the same as they are today. Now, I'm not saying that they haven't changed over the past four years, but just comparing at this time among likely voters. So she stayed pretty stable. They're not over 50% in terms of her job approval rating, they're just under. they're solid. They're not out of the park, but she doesn't have the enthusiasm that we're seeing among her supporters that Bruce Blakeman does, but her ratings haven't come down either. So she has a solid, more stable job approval favorability, pretty mixed throughout the state. And that seems to be helping her in this race. Voters, likely voters are saying at this point that they think that she would do a better job with those two main issues. Thanks so much for answering that. So with the issues that matter most to voters there in the area, how could their priorities shape the outcome here of this race? Well, this race and what we're seeing in New York State is not unlike some of the other states we've been polling in gubernatorial races. And this is really a national issue as well. When we do our national polls, these issues are lining up to be the same. So the last gubernatorial race, we had a Republican who came within striking distance of Kathy Hochul. It was a single-digit race. I think she won about five points in the end, five or six points. And our poll had showed in middle October that it was a very close race. This time around, the issues are very different and the political environment is very different. Four years ago, Joe Biden in a blue state, likely voters said crime was their biggest issue, followed by inflation. And that helped the Republican in that race. This time around, we're seeing a different political environment. And President Trump is very unpopular in New York State, particularly in New York City, which makes up such a big chunk of the state's votes. I know you just said that the president is unpopular in the state. How much of an impact has the president been having in recent weeks? I know he's been traveling across the country. Do you think that he has been having a better impact on voters or not quite? It's still kind of remaining the same. Well, on voters in New York State, what we did see for Bruce Blakeman, President Trump did campaign in upstate New York a couple of weeks ago in Syracuse. And what we did see in our polling is that there was a bit of a shift in terms of the top issue. For Republicans, it is immigration. That is a difference from our last poll in September, immigration and crime. And what we saw in our poll is that Bruce Blakeman did improve his image among independents since the last poll. And that is also showing up in some of the issues that we're seeing that are listed as the most significant to likely voters' choices, but it's still not the top choice. Still, nearly a quarter of likely voters in New York State say that they still don't know enough about Bruce Blakeman to have an opinion about him. And in a race like this, where he does have that uphill challenge and so little time left, that can make a difference. Thanks so much for sharing, Mary. Let's move forward and talk about New York City Mayor. What did the poll tell you about him? So we did take a look at the favorability ratings of both President Trump and Zoran Mamdani because while they're not on the ballot, both of these figures have been looming large over this race, right? And the Blakeman campaign has made big point of their campaign of tying Kathy Hochul with Mamdani because he did campaign with her in New York City just yesterday, and he is a supporter. But what we're seeing overall, Zoran Mamdani, people are divided on him within the state. Even though he is a New York City mayor, most people in the state have an opinion about him because they know who he is. He is very popular in New York City, not as popular in upstate and the suburbs. Only 12% of our likely voters say they don't know enough about him to have an opinion on him, which is less than what they're saying about Bruce Blakeman. So when I mentioned that he was campaigning with Kathy Hochul, that is also a campaign to drive out voters and get them to the polls. This is all going to be about turnout. Who turns out? Bruce Blakeman also campaigning in New York City this past couple of days because it's tough. In a Democrat state, I think Kamala Harris won about 14, 13, 14 points in the 2024 election for Republicans to drive up their support in New York City to cut the losses there. So we see Kathy Hochul with a very big lead in New York City. and um his favorability is positive in the city and that's what's going on we're uh with this campaign as he is trying to drive out his supporters to show up for her and so one last question for you before uh we let you go uh thanks so much for your time with the election approaching what should voters watch for next um and and how could these numbers change ahead of Election Day on November 3rd. One thing is, I just want to say that polls are a snapshot in time, and they should not have any effect on whether or not a person decides to vote or not, right? I mean, two separate things. These are just a snapshot, not a prediction. And we mentioned about Bruce Blakeman having about a quarter of likely voters in the state not knowing enough about him, that's always room for growth for a candidate. We saw that more likely voters are familiar with him than they were a month ago. But also the issues, right, that are making an impact with voters, that that is something that people want to look at. What are the policies for each of these candidates when it comes to improving the economy or lowering the cost of living? and it all comes down to turnout. That's the hardest thing to figure out. We don't have a crystal ball. These are all estimates. And polls give that snapshot. I know it's a cliche. People always say it, but it is really important to understand that and to remember that, that it is just a kind of glimpse at a moment in time of what voters are registering with us. Absolutely. Mary, thanks so much for joining us to talk about this. I know early voting in New York starts today. Yes. Goes on until November 1st. So thank you for joining us to have this conversation. Well, thanks so much for having me. Yes. Thank you. Hope you have a great rest of your day. Thank you. You too.