Why the 2026 Midterms Could Defy History | Victor Davis Hanson Daily Brief
Could the 2026 midterm elections defy more than a century of American political history?
Victor Davis Hanson breaks down the biggest wildcards facing Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the 2026 midterms, from historical voting patterns and questionable polling predictions to voter turnout, Democratic Senate candidates, and divisions within the conservative movement.
In this edition of Victor Davis Hanson: Daily Highlights, Hanson examines the challenges facing Republicans in key Senate races, including Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, and Maine. He explains why the president's party has historically struggled during midterm elections and what could make 2026 different.
Hanson also discusses the controversy surrounding Rep. Ilhan Omar, including allegations about her finances and immigration history, while emphasizing questions that remain unresolved.
The conversation turns to Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, reports of paid political influencers, his primary contest against Jasmine Crockett, and whether his political positions will resonate with Texas voters.
Hanson also weighs in on Sen. Elissa Slotkin's comments about future accountability for Trump administration officials, revisiting political investigations involving Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump.
Finally, Hanson examines the war between Russia and Ukraine, questioning the West's long-term strategy and explaining why Trump may be seeking a negotiated settlement with Vladimir Putin.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Trump, Putin and the Future of Ukraine
04:22 Ilhan Omar and Questions Surrounding Federal Investigations
09:43 The 2026 Midterms: Can Republicans Defy History?
16:16 James Talarico, Jasmine Crockett and the Texas Senate Race
21:01 Elissa Slotkin, Trump and Political Retaliation
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What does Victor Davis Hanson predict about the 2026 midterm elections?
Hanson explains that the president's party has historically lost congressional seats during midterm elections, with only a handful of exceptions since 1900. He argues that polling accuracy, candidate quality, voter turnout, and divisions within both political parties could make 2026 difficult to predict.
What are the biggest wildcards in the 2026 midterms?
According to Hanson, the major unknowns include whether polling accurately reflects voter sentiment, whether Republican voters turn out, how Democratic Senate candidates perform, and whether criticism of Trump from prominent conservatives affects Republican participation.
What does Victor Davis Hanson say about James Talarico?
Hanson criticizes Talarico's political positions and questions his appeal to Texas voters. He also discusses reports involving paid social media influencers, Talarico's relationship with Jasmine Crockett, and the importance of political authenticity.
What does Victor Davis Hanson say about Ilhan Omar?
Hanson discusses allegations involving Rep. Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures, family relationships, and immigration history. These allegations are discussed as claims and questions, not established findings of wrongdoing.
Why does Victor Davis Hanson criticize Elissa Slotkin?
Hanson responds to Slotkin's comments about accountability for Trump administration officials, arguing that political retaliation could discourage young people from entering public service. He also revisits controversies involving federal investigations of Trump and his associates.
What does Victor Davis Hanson say about Trump and Ukraine?
Hanson questions whether the United States and its European allies have a realistic strategy for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. He discusses the possibility of a ceasefire, continued military support for Ukraine, and Trump's broader foreign-policy priorities involving Russia, China, and Iran.
Which Senate races does Victor Davis Hanson discuss?
Hanson examines races in Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, and Maine, discussing candidates, polling, historical election trends, and the potential consequences for control of the United States Senate.