James Kaufman reports on heightened solar activity, including multiple M-class flares and an imminent G1 or G2 geomagnetic storm. The focus is on the extremely unstable and Earth-facing sunspot AR4420, which poses a high risk for a dangerous X-class solar flare. With several other complex sunspots also facing Earth, the planet remains in a high-risk strike zone for the next few days.
James Kaufman, World News Report today.
Ladies and gentlemen, we've had a busy day,
and it looks like we're on an uptick right now.
It's like we've had at least four M-flares, and, well, we're
also expecting a geomagnetic storm at some point today.
Now, four M-flares, and we're looking
at a geomagnetic storm from this incident right here.
This double M-flare created a coronal mass ejection,
and it should be hitting us in about an hour's time.
It's about 3 p.m. Central now.
They expect it to be inbound for about 4 to 5 p.m. Central.
Again, from this small little double-end feature here,
a lot of these stronger flares were not directly Earth-facing,
But we will see a lot of coronal mass ejections
impact Earth over the next several days.
Again, this is from the very first double M-flare here.
It's supposed to be getting hit from about 4 to 7 this evening.
We're looking for a G1 or G2 geomagnetic storm.
Now, one could argue that we've already
been hit since all these line up right here.
This could be the, quote-unquote, glancing blow that they talked about.
But my guess is it's still to come here.
We're going to have an actual geomagnetic storm, probably a G1 or G2,
and the next, well, probably when the next bar drops.
Going up one million miles, orbiting above Earth,
it's our DSCOVR satellite.
Always catches the solar activity before we see it.
You can see this uptick here in plasma.
and it definitely goes to the special weather threshold of 18
and i hadn't seen this but now
we can be assured the next sector drop is going
to be a G1 geomagnetic storm and this is the
glancing blow there's 25.25 and a couple other
ones in here we can't grab well some 20s etc
so we definitely just got hit it'll
be the next bar that drops just like i guessed
temperatures did not rise here uh
and we were able to really gain a northern angle here which
really is going to help us out now our shields went below
the zero line in red here which means
our shields are basically down so that's not great
so i'm guessing this is going to come in
at a G1 it might come in as a at a G2
but we're probably getting hit right now as we speak
takes about 45 minutes uh after it hits
this discovered satellite for it to get to earth
and so when that next bar drops it's going
to show us that we have been in a geomagnetic
disturbance are probably a storm G1 or G2
meanwhile NOAA warns of a potentially large
dangerous solar flare and or geomagnetic storm
today they're thinking that sunspot AR4420 has
become extremely complex
and it's directly earth facing they have put a composite here
of Earth next to the sunspot, so you can see exactly how large it is.
It's a behemoth sunspot.
NOAA has warned of a potentially dangerous sunspot.
Don't be surprised if there's a large
X-flare today. Active sunspot 4420 is directly facing Earth,
and it is potentially dangerous.
David Wilson took that photo
and this movie from his backyard observatory in Scotland.
This movie of sunspot AR4420 shows
a lot of dynamics.
One of the interior sunspots in this group is rotating clockwise,
while another is rotating counterclockwise.
This thing's ready to blow.
In addition to the turmoil you see, the sunspot has a beta-gamma-delta,
so it's a delta-class magnetic field.
This means it is extremely unstable with latent energy
for an X-class solar flare at any time.
Earth would be directly in the strike zone
and will be for the next three or four days.
This is a behemoth and looks dangerous as all heck.
Taking a look at HMI Magnetogram,
we can see 4420 staring us down directly Earth-facing.
There goes 4419, responsible for those two large X-flares,
which may or may not be geo-effective towards Earth,
as we all know that Earth's connected on the outgoing limb to our Sun.
We've got 4422 just below that, and we've got
a really complex sunspot coming around the limb here, 4425.
In total, we have seven Earth-facing sunspots today.
Now, 4425 looks like it could really, really get
ugly here, and 4424 doesn't look too nice either.
We'll see what happens.
But all eyes are on 4420,
and there is no warning out for an X-class solar flare out of 4420.
All right, before we go,
I wanted to get the latest and greatest from SDO HMI Magnetogram.
This picture was just taken, just taken.
You can't see 4419 or 4422 anymore
and see that this is a reverse polarity sunspot.
i.e. there's a negative over a positive,
and it's in the northern hemisphere.
It looks like this one's lining up the same exact way.
It should always be white over black in the northern hemisphere,
and black over white in the southern hemisphere.
I would like to say that this third one's lining up
the same way as well.
These are supposed to be, well, very rare,
but they tend to be very common from what I've seen.
So, these are reverse polarity sunspots anytime we
have black over white in the northern hemisphere.
Northern hemisphere should be white over black.
Southern hemisphere should be black over white.
This would be normal magnetism.
These are reverse polarity, which makes them extremely dangerous.
God bless, folks.
Get ready, because we're about to see another X-Flare.
Please share, subscribe, and always remember, anything's possible.
Bizarro world.