NASA's Parker Spiral CME Model! CMEs Inbound From Four X Flares In 24 Hours!

James Kaufman, World News Report today. Ladies and gentlemen, NASA has actually modeled the coronal mass ejections from both the X-8 and X-4 solar flares yesterday. And it definitely does not look as bad as we thought it might. What we have here is both of the coronal mass ejections coming off the sun. The first one's going to be in blue, and outlined by black, or the main part will be outlined in black here. You'll see that Earth here in yellow gets a glancing blow by the blue one, and then it gets impacted by the green one, which was created by the X4 that happened after the X8. Neither of these coronal mass ejections look very impressive whatsoever. You can tell how impressive they are by the scales down here, and they're showing, well, 10 to 15 centimeters of plasma, which will not be any big deal for Earth whatsoever if this information has been modeled correctly. Now, they did say that they're in the process of redoing this, so if they do redo it and it's completely different, I will update you. But right now, they're expecting less than 15 centimeters cubed of plasma from these coronal mass ejections, which is closer to a C flare than an X flare. Now, I don't know why exactly this is, especially with 16 or 17 M flares yesterday, and a total of four X flares yesterday. We'll take a look at those four X flares yesterday real quickly. Over a 24-hour period, we had that first X1 followed by that X8 followed by that X4 followed by this longer-term X2, perhaps. So four X-flares in less than 24 hours and over 20 M-class solar flares in less than 48 hours. Unbelievable. I won't even start to count them because it's going to be closer to 30. But this is the most activity I've seen generated, especially by one, now two and three different sunspots. We have more sunspots becoming active and more complex, although over on HMI Intensigram, everything is still considered simple, although they are getting into the action, except for AR4366, which is responsible for at least 90% of the activity that we've seen over the last 48 hours. Now, one of the obvious tells that this is going to be a nothing burger event is that we had no intensification of our GOES proton flux here. And we're talking about, well, none of the 10 million volt, the 50 million volt, the 100 million volt, or the 500 million volt basically didn't move off their baselines when these flares occurred. or after they occurred for that matter and we didn't see the little white specks coming from our star i.e. the protons themselves. Now, none of this is to say that coronal mass ejections were not lifted from these explosions. You can obviously see that they were in fact lifted from these two explosions. However, the magnitude and intensity of these coronal mass ejections do not seem significant at this point. Now, we will keep an eye on them, and we have seen severe storms with very low proton levels recently when our shields are completely down or absent, so anything can happen. But at this point, they're looking for an impact as late as the 6th. If these were strong X flares, they'd be here within 24 to 30 hours, and that'd be maximum. If they're looking for something to arrive on the 6th or 7th, well, these are not very strong coronal mass ejections, period. Now, this is NOAA's WSA-Enlil Prediction Center, never as well put together as NASA's, but they're looking for plasma impact, and they're around late on the 5th here into the 6th. If you'll notice the level, it will just break the space weather barrier of 10 up to maybe 12 centimeters cubed, so they're not looking for much whatsoever here. Am I the only one that realizes that every time an X-Flare is Earth-directed, it seems to be a nothing burger? And if it pops off on the backside of the sun, it seems to hurl some huge coronal mass ejection that wipes out satellites and planets in the opposite direction of Earth. I don't know if that's our fairy godmother or if that's the angel guardianess, but in fact, it seems to happen time and time again. Anything that's Earth-facing seems to be very mild, no matter what the intensity measured on GOES X-ray. And anything going in the opposite direction seems to be, well, very intense as far as coronal mass ejection and the plasma that is spewed by those solar flares and filament eruptions. Now, we did have some decent explosions today. This, in fact, was the X1.6, like an X2 on the GOES X-ray meter, and we're going to go through this. We also have an M6 that happened about 11.26, or peaked about 11.26. This will peak about 8.30, as you can see it peaking right about now, and that was, well, over most of the African and Indian Ocean. And then we'll see another M6, there's been several other M flares as well, peak around 1126. So we'll take a look for that one, and there it was, right on time. Those were the two significant solar flares today, and we saw them, well, and their X-ray flux hit Earth, so they should have an Earth component as well. they have not been modeled, and they very well could have generated coronal mass ejections as well. There's just too much going on the sun for anyone to really model this out. You can't model 30 M flares and four, five X flares in a 40-hour period. It's just going to be too difficult. that said god bless you guys uh i am going to take a pass on filling up my truck right now and i'm going to continue to wait on some revised information out of NASA that's supposed to be coming out around noon please share and subscribe always remember anything's possible bizarro world