Thursday Trading & Coaching Session. Not much on today, folks. Rest up!

Okay, get it guys. Welcome to the Thursday trading session. All right. Now, right on time. Let me actually, let me just get rid of the video. That'll get it our way. Now, I haven't been doing much today. It's one of the, and just sort of reflecting on the week and then looking at what's going on, trying to get a feel for what's going on. This is sort of where I'm at. And when you a little bit of time and take that time to sort of work out what's going on. Obviously, the one thing that I hadn't really been focusing on a lot, the global bond markets are getting, the yields are sort of blowing out a bit. Europe, that whole situation in France is really putting pressure on the bond markets in Europe, hence why Euro is sort of really lagging and sort of drifting away. There's a bit of pressure on the UK bonds, just proximity, and you can see where the Antipodeans, Aussie and Kiwi, well, the Kiwis, you know, had that reset, but it's now sort of starting fresh. It's, you know, they're sort of a little bit less impacted on that. So, anyway, I was just sort of talking to someone this morning about the sort of markets and, you know, things are sort of just sort of rolling over a touch, but I'm just, like, I don't really, as I was saying yesterday, feel too connected to what's going on. I actually like it the way that the markets are coming back to the trend lines. And that's what always happens. It just needs a bit of time to flush out. The news will come back around full circle. Then we're back to where we are. But this is what I've just been sort of looking at through the course of the day and then more so the afternoon. More having a look at the euro news, right? This is quite relevant. We've obviously got the ECB today. uh christine lagarde's done a great job she um you know let's talk about her leaving earlier than than was expected so everyone's not doing not everyone no rate hike here but everyone's sort of predicting something in december like if you read what's happening in the um the uk in europe it's like the like the price impact of the price hikes you know with the us iran situation seemed to hit asia quicker than it has europe but we're going about to go into a um a cold winter in europe where fuel is a major thing right so that could really sort of screw things up the unrest in um france i can't see that sort of just stopping instantly that and that could sort of you know uh spread globally so anyway i'm sort of like just at sixes and sevens all i'm doing here is looking at the currencies, looking at what's going on across the board. As I said, like the NASDAQ is a large part of just the equity indices these days. That's what sort of everyone's responding to. We've got a bit of a risk off profile here at the moment. Am I confident in the market? I'm not at all, to be honest. I was just having a look through a few different things and looking more at the bigger picture and trying to get a good scope of what's going on. I do like the idea of dollar swiss going up right trying to be objective as to be instead of subjective but this thing is actually this is a nice trend right when you see these things collapse like this and it's not good for trading and it's hard to get in and hard to work out what's going on when you've got like a sort of nice 45 degree angle trend that is old school and amazing right so i'm looking at that more on a longer term trade maybe put on a uh a smaller position with a say 7500 point stop loss i'll use trendline trade to try and get in there and and see how it goes but in amongst that i'm sort of like trying to like it's almost like trying to be upbeat right because i'm like yeah i just don't get what's going on here i don't get what's going on there So let me just throw to you guys, what do you feel, anyone feeling some love out of anything at the moment on the currency side of things or the markets as opposed to your wives and girlfriends? No, I'm depressed. Yeah, well, actually, Gav, that's actually a fair call. No, because it's like last week Last week I thought I was getting the hang of this stuff. I've had 16 trades in a row and then this week I've had a couple of terrible ones and then i just decided to take my toys and go home yeah no and that's smart right the two trades maximum as well right because this is the thing right usually when when we're losing we're out of whack with the market or the market's out of whack right and then two situations where you lose i feel like it's for me right i've had really small positions just fiddling with a few things um i feel like it's both i feel like the market's out of whack and i'm out of whack so i can't actually sort of i can see what's going on but i do not feel confident in any of the moves just at the moment right so the lesson there is um you know manage your expectations if i have a losing trade i'm like what happened there do i did i understand what actually was going on or not because and this is where you draw on a little bit of extra knowledge right come back and go okay let's go back to basics these four instruments down here the dollar the dollar block they should be correlating the same way right and that and they haven't been right you can sort of say well the uh oh this is actually the daily chart like this come back to the alleys you can see it a little bit clear on the alleys but you're looking at um this is where you should be thinking hang on that's going down that's going down that's going up and that was a flush out like it's i I don't know what's going on. Like, seriously, I don't feel like – and this is what will happen. If I'm not feeling like that, everyone else is going to be feeling like that across all the professional sort of trading institutions, right? They're like, we don't know what's going on. It's sort of like these things are treading lower. I mean, they're probably selling euro just because of the carnage in France and all those disruptions. But everything else, like – But, Brad, do you reckon the markets are waiting for the midterms? They're next Tuesday, aren't they? Don't they start next week? I thought it was – Tuesday the 3rd? I'll have a look. I thought it was a couple of weeks. 3rd or the 4th. 3rd or the 4th. Okay, well, that's good to know. I thought it was actually a couple of weeks away. Yeah, they're probably waiting to see what, you know, is going to happen after that. I don't know. It might affect the – Yeah, no, that makes a huge amount of sense. I thought that was actually two weeks away. So I've misplaced the dates there because you're right. Like, the big fund managers and everyone else who control the bigger cash, they wait for certainty on specific things and then that they all sort of pile in so that would make a lot of sense why there's sort of like this half the market trading at the moment right the um yeah that's a good one steven that's that's good and i was gonna say yeah well that's going to affect a lot of things it's going to affect how uh he you know what move he's going to make next or potentially what will happen with oil again and uh inflation and all that type of things so i know he's very uh he wants his interest rates down a lot lower but uh i don't know if they can do that anyway that's right yeah yeah okay i i think you're right this is the thing right as well like it's there's a there's a point where it's like looking you know think of your favorite sporting game and you're watching the match right and the matches sort of you know go back and forward back and forth but you can see the structure of what each team's trying to do and you know as entertaining as it might be you know it's pretty good you go and watch a crap match and it's just all over the shop you're like what is going on out there what are they doing both teams are dropping the ball doing this doing that there's it's like terrible then you sort of go away scratching your head that's where i'm sort of at the moment with the markets um and it's like a way to see isn't it it feels like we're sort of just in a holding pattern it does and and one thing i was going to suggest as well like try and keep a log of of everything that's happening this is a week where we've got five central banks this week and it's almost and i i've got to say like on uh coming into wednesday i was pretty pumped for the aussie cpi numbers i didn't think there was going to be anything out of the rbnz that turned out to be a big blow up then we've sort of just rolled into a crap week so that's what that's what could happen and you did a good job there gav stop stopping trading right because you want to get confidence you've got to have confidence in the in the trade and that comes from confidence in the market and if you don't have either it's hard you just got to keep busy and sort of stay out of the market right that's all you've got to do which is easier said than done you guys all i'm sure will sort of uh agree with that it's harder because you're like hang on a second i know what i'm doing i'm pretty good at this I can go and get some more money, and you can't, right? So there are a couple of things. I come back to the long-term perspective and just look for clarity around what's going on in the market, and at the moment, yeah, you could sort of say, see, if you move those trend lines, sterling and Aussie don't look too dissimilar, right? And you've got Euros, the odd one out. I mean, Kiwi's under the pump, and obviously with the current no hike, it's sort of the odd one out but they'll be hiking in december as well um so that's it like it's like this is one of the things where you need to learn you have a look and have have a look at what's coming out like the data that's coming out today out of the eurozone is not going to really impact anything like let me just show you like this economic sentiment indicator right that would have to be like 50 really to get things moving um consumer confidence same sort of extreme levels right i don't know no one really even believes the euro zone data is um what it is so and then uh you've got the PCE price, we've got some US numbers this is actually something that i would watch right i would not be trading um let me just type something here um yeah so this is interesting right because it's the first bit of data and it's pretty sort of good data PCE price index GDP i mean it's not really impacting the markets at the moment but um that's always worth a look everyone will have a look at these numbers after what Kevin Walsh said yesterday um if they're softer well then the picture from what he what he was saying is different right the um so that that may have this will be the first bit of solid inflation numbers that go into the pot following the Fed decision to remain on hold If these are really hot, there's going to be a big push on that. Then next week, we've got the non-farm payrolls Week after, we'll have the CPI numbers and the whole engine starts again. So this is the game Kevin mentioned this the other day. We look at a week as like a day. It's one big day And then you've got the month is like a big giant week. And each month works as a month When it's gone, you just put it in the bin and you've got this next month same structure data comes out the same sort of regular time frames and then we're trying to piece things together um so i think two things uh what Stephen was saying about the um the midterms it's going to be huge right it's a massive thing uh i've been watching some of the um some of the the whatever he's doing the speeches it's crazy it is dead set crazy like in a developed world how the leaders can actually slam other punters it's it's like really wild um anyway so you got that you got the ECB down here as well no one's really expecting much out of the ECB especially with France uh you know all over the shop and everything else so like you can tell Gab right this is like a one of those things you get it's fatigue it's like disappointment fatigue i don't want to be saying i like i'm depressed but i'm like fatigue from disappointment this week it's just like and that's what you get right there's some weeks you just get disappointment because i can look at the numbers all day and i can look at these charts but they're not changing right the um you can have a look across the equity indices it's still like i mean these things just keep going up it's like they can't keep going up it's like it's just insane Yeah, it's crazy. So that's where we're at. It's like a real crossroads, right, where some of the European countries are starting to experience the same sort of pressure on the bond yields that the US are feeling. So I think there's more to wait and see. So really, and I am sort of really sincere in this, does anyone have any sort of really feeling? Because there's no point, like I'm looking at this going, well, I'm not really trading anything at the moment. I'm not confident in the majors. What will give me confidence though, and this is from looking at the numbers probably after the event today, I want to see how the US dollar reacts, if it's strong or weak. That's all I'm looking for. I'm not looking to trade. I want to see some variance in the numbers and I want to see the dollar index or dollar Swiss, euro and sterling. I want to see how these things behave on the numbers that's where i'm going to get confidence from that's where you jump in right so uh i think that a lot of the market's doing that so that's my suggestion um because once you get that confidence back it takes one trade one flip of the switch and you're back in the game yeah anyone else paul jace bobby no all good in here i'm i'm just waiting for the number to come out from Eurozone and CAD to decide what I'm doing at the moment I'm just looking at the charts I'm looking at Euro USD as well and GBP USD for a potential trade looking on daily it is you know like in downtrend for looking on one hour you just like switching the trends so i'm just waiting for the one hour chart on a pound pound dollar to come and retest the trend line and then probably maybe just to go with uh with a trend to get in a short position if you know i'm thinking that makes a bit of sense that's the only thing that i like the idea of what you're talking about going with the trend uh sterling or euro the only thing is i don't have actually confidence in the market just yet so that's why i want to see some numbers and then i i will be launching into that so you're doing the one step ahead of me which is you know what this thing is actually trending down so let's um let's have a look at that just got chris jumping on here i think is the time zone uh as well because um in your uh economic calendar the ecb on a euro it shows tomorrow like friday yeah and but my economic calendar is thursday like today at one o'clock you know so it's just a bit of uh yeah that's right this is one o'clock yeah so the um so that's right the it'll be interesting to see what happens but you're on the right chance i mean i like the idea there bobby uh this is going down so you could get short i'm well i'm a step backwards because i haven't been feeling the love of what's going on but this has got you know what being objective uh three four touches it's yeah it has some confluence in there so depending on the numbers i will see how uh what i will decide you know go long or go short it depends on the numbers but at the moment as we are speaking If the trend is down, I will go with the trend, you know. Well, that's it. Don't forget, we've only got Eurozone numbers and U.S. So the U.S. numbers here, what we're looking for is stronger U.S. numbers and then seeing if sterling goes down. You can actually, if you're in front of the screens, you can watch that for sure. Yeah, yeah, definitely. Or I'm looking on USDCAD as well. I'm watching USDCAD and CADJPY as well. Okay. So anyone really know what's going on with oil? Like it sort of seems to be whipping around in $5 to $8 range with no bombing in Iran or... The CAD numbers? Yeah, well, I know the CAD's sort of been playing its part, the Bank of Canada and everything else. But there's been some moves here, like since Trump, you know what, do you remember when he left to go do the midterm election sort of campaigns? He's like, you know what, we're going to come back and blow you guys up later i'll be back in two months which is what he said um yeah and we're seeing like 109 to back to 97 like there's nothing going on and then it's like this just seems to be artificially generated like opec i mean they don't care they could just uh reduce supply and then jack the price up anyway i mean there's so much uh crazy stuff going on you're in the financial markets game of course and you start to see a lot of the weird news that people on the street don't generally see and feel it can be quite uh draining sometimes but um yeah dollar cad well it has broken down and you know i'd be saying well you know what weaker numbers or stronger weaker numbers good chance to get short stronger numbers it might just sort of come straight back but we've got the good thing now you've got a trend line okay yeah we have something to work with you know Yeah, you do, you do. All right, thanks, Bobby. Chris, mate, you'll have to put an alarm on your clock. Just get that time. Time zones are a little bit messed up. Anyway, you haven't missed much, mate. We're just sort of going through a few bits and pieces, but there's nothing – I can't feel anything hot on the table. Usually by Thursday, right, especially with coming into the, say, PCE price index numbers, a bit of personal spending, a bit of this stuff. Jobless claims is nothing really You know, things would be pretty hot And you're like, you're hinged on the market Waiting for these numbers to drop I'm not feeling it in the market at all Like the market sort of stopped So I think, Stephen You've probably hit the nail on the head with the midterms That's, what is that, next week? Tuesday, the 3rd Oh, mate, that'd be a great Breath of fresh air Because that could really Let the markets unfold a bit more You know, if Trump is loses his dominance. Could be a really good price for the market, yeah. Yeah, yeah, it should be good, right? And that's pretty much it. Like, this is a pretty sort of sad day for us as traders where you're looking for opportunities. You know, it would have been a great day for some sterling numbers to come out today, like a really good number, because then we do have trend line. We've got a bit of a trend. That would have been good. Dollar cable, well, we've got some US numbers if you're desperate. but I'm looking for a bit more than just desperate, you know? I'm looking for, like, certainty. I'm looking for confidence. I'll get it from these numbers today. That's what I'm doing. Anyone else got a different plan that they're doing? Bobby's already shared his. All right, guys. Well, take it easy, right? Don't beat yourself up like Gav did. I mean, a couple of losing trades is not good, but you know what? It tells you that it's not the week to be trading, and it's one of those things, right? As I said, I was pumped Wednesday, and I'm sort of like I've got misery fatigue at the moment because I'm like, okay, this week sucks. But you put this week behind you, then it's a fresh start next week, fresh month, all right? Okay, guys, well, good luck if you're having a crack, and let us know what's going on in the Discord. If you've got some trades on, let's just share them around a bit, eh? All right, guys, have fun. Cheers.