From election defeat to Miami: What to know about Brazil's Bolsonaro's dramatic departure to the US

Well, for more on this story, we're joined on set by our international affairs editor, Philip Turrell. Hi, Philip. Bolsonaro's statements conclude what is a really extraordinary turnabout in only a few days. What can you tell us about the journey Bolsonaro took to get to Miami and why? Well, I think actually the word extraordinary is pretty apt here because nobody believed that he was going to run away from the country so soon after those elections. 51% to Lula, 48% to Flavio Bolsonaro. Of course, he came first in the first round, so that's why he's saying these elections were rigged in the second round. He's fled the country. He's now in the United States. And it was quite a journey, as you can see from this map. First of all, he went to visit his father, who is under house arrest in Brasilia. Then he crossed over the border into Argentina. Then there was a plane which took him from Argentina to Ecuador, where the plane refueled and then he flew on to Miami, Miami where, of course, he's received an invitation visa from the Trump administration to come to the United States. So this unexpected arrival of he, his wife, and his two daughters in Miami, I think, has taken many people by surprise, not only in Brazil, but also around the world. He, of course, is saying that he is the rightful leader of Brazil. He made a press conference pretty soon after his arrival in Miami. Why has he run away? Well, I think basically there are two reasons for this. These are two criminal investigations which are pending before Brazil's Supreme Federal Court. The first is a case on the transfer of nearly $70 million from a private bank called Banco Master to the film Dark Horse. This is a film that was made about Flavio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, and the former Brazilian president that he was at the time until 2022. And the second case relates to an alleged Social Security money laundering scheme, which was linked to online betting, to personal family journeys, all paid for by a holding which is under investigation. So questions are being asked about Flavio Bolsonaro's involvement in both of those. His passport was taken away from him, but that didn't stop him from running away from Brazil. He says this was all part of a plan by Alexander de Moraes, who is the Supreme Court justice, who is really the bête noire of the Bolsonaro family. And Flavio Bolsonaro said that if he had been elected president, he would have wanted that Supreme Court justice to have been impeached. President Trump authorized Bolsonaro and his family to come to the United States. Is this his final destination? And could the decision have a negative effect on Trump? Well, final destination, I think so. We can't be sure because we don't know where this is going to end up. He may end up going back to Brazil. That's what his father did when he flew, fled from Brazil back in 2022 after he lost the election to Lula da Silva back then, stayed three weeks and then came back to Brazil once again. president trump has said yes he favors this arrival in the united states saying that he thinks that the Bolsonaro family are very fine people but he said he's not going to get involved in Bolsonaro's claim to the presidency of Brazil and also describe the election as being very strange more or less giving support to the Bolsonaro family but this is a blow to Donald Trump I don't think it's going to affect him too badly in the United States but it's posing a big question over the future relationship between the United States and Brazil they're so called Dunro or Dunro doctrine uh which uh Donald Trump has uh called it based on the Monroe doctrine of the 19th century to try to exert more U.S. influence over countries in Latin America the swing back to Lula da Silva is going to put paid to that and I think Donald Trump is aware of fact he needs to keep good relations with Brazil because Brazil contains vast amounts of renewable energy also semiconductors robotics and defense and 20 percent of global rare earth reserves so he can't uh give too much support to Bolsonaro which will annoy uh Lula da Silva because he needs to have a good working relationship with the Brazilian authorities and also he wants to prevent China from getting too much of a stronghold on those natural resources in Brazil as well. So a dilemma for Donald Trump. But so far, he seems to have given his view that he's not going to get too involved in those claims to the presidency by Flavio Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro was in the lead to become president in the first round, but then lost to Lula in the second. How easy will it be for him to remain in the U.S.? And who might lead the Brazilian in opposition in his absence okay well staying in the u.s i don't think it's going to be too difficult for him or for his wife or his children because he has the backing of the u.s president donald trump but there are three paths that he can take to do that he can ask for an asylum request that could be hampered by the fact that he has dual nationality because he's also italian and brazilian therefore it'll be much more complicated it's easier if you just have one nationality the second is a green card uh there are multiple ways to qualify for a green card uh he probably would get one of those from the U.S. authorities pretty quickly. And the third one is a work visa. This could be a bit more complicated for Flavio Bolsonaro. It could actually cost him up to a million dollars to get it. But maybe a million dollars for him is not so much money when one considers how much he's accused of taking away in those two court cases. As for who might replace him, there's no doubt this is going to be a big disappointment for all those supporters of Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil, who hoped that he was going to lead the opposition there. He's now left the country unexpectedly, having said that he wasn't going to leave, that even if his passport was taken away, he would stay in the country to fight for his innocence. Now he's saying that he had to leave the country. So that leaves the door open to two things. Will he be able to run the opposition from the United States? That is unclear. Second point, who could take over? One of the names being touted is a São Paulo governor whose name is Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, who has been favored by many more moderate conservatives. He's called for a vigilante opposition. This might be the time for him to try to create that. Interesting times ahead. Thank you very much, Philip Turrell, Irish National Affairs Editor.