Florida early voting trends point to close races

As we march toward the midterms, we are seeing some interesting changes in voter turnout. And it suggests the results here in Florida could be very close. Our political editor, Craig Patrick, is here to show us why. Hey, Craig. Yeah, hey there. This would be a change because Florida statewide races have not been very competitive, certainly not the past two cycles. But remember, they certainly were in 2018 when we had recounts to decide the winners that year. And what we're seeing in the combination of polling and the early vote turnout suggests that we could once again have a nail-biter election like we did eight years ago so let's start with the latest turnout numbers what we're seeing here overall more than four million people have already voted keep in mind there are 13.7 million voters registered in total so we're about a third of the way there in terms of total voters more than 60,000 more Republicans have voted so far than Democrats but while that gives them an advantage of a little less than two percent keep in mind there are around 1.5 million more Republicans than there are Democrats in Florida so with around a two-point advantage in turnout that is not proportional to the disparity between the parties so Democrats have a significant advantage thus far I would say in enthusiasm Now, heading in today, there's a 9% turnout gap that favors the Democrats. We'll see if it holds. Yes, Republicans still have a slight lead in turnout. But we're also seeing a much higher than usual turnout among independent voters. And the polling we're seeing shows that independent or nonpartisan voters are breaking for Democrats in polling by 20 or more points, which suggest GOP advantage in raw numbers could be countered by the Democratic advantage among non-partisan voters that we're seeing this year and of course the higher Democratic turnout than usual though does not matching republicans keep in mind democrats outvote republicans significantly by mail while republicans outvote democrats and in person early voting but then republicans are expected to significantly outvote democrats on election day so the question of this how much, well, pollster Insider Advantage who we often talk to as we approach the election says based on the analysis they're looking at so far of the early vote and their contention is also is entirely possible that some races or particularly the race for governor in Florida will be very close so don't be surprised if Florida becomes a focal point on Tuesday night for the entire nation so what are we seeing in the national polls and what does it suggest in terms of you know the balance of power in Congress, well overall nationally we're seeing similar momentum that is favoring the Democrats in state after state, some more than others, the reason appears to be the unpopular war conflict with Iran and inflation which voters are taking out on the party in power which would be the Republican Party, having said that the House is very very likely to go to the Democrats, the Senate is still a big open question this is RealClearPolitics average of polls, the betting market there in the middle but take a look at the right, it shows you which candidate which party has the advantage in the states that will ultimately decide which party controls the Senate, you see Democrats have advantage, it's small advantage and in Florida the Republican incumbent Ashley Moody has a six plus point advantage in an average of polls but overall if you look at this map you're seeing states that are ranked toss-ups, this is the Fox News map like Iowa for example, like Ohio tilting toward the Democrats, Georgia firmly in favor of the Democrats with Jon Ossoff, look at South Carolina just to the northeast of Georgia too that has been consistently moving in the Democrats direction and is now just ever so slightly leaning in favor of Lindsey Graham the Republican candidate for Senate and the incumbent So this map, including Texas, a toss up state, all of this tells us overall that it's going to be very close. But Democrats do seem to have momentum in their favor. Let's go back to what we were talking about before. Why do you think Democrats vote more by mail and why do we expect Republicans to turn out more on election day? Well, it used to be flipped. Republicans, particularly in Florida, used to significantly outvote Democrats by mail. It goes back to changes over the pandemic and specifically changes when President Trump railed on mail voting and discouraged his fellow Republicans to vote by mail. And many of them followed his lead. And then Democrats went the other way, feeling more comfortable during the pandemic of voting by mail rather than in person, statistically speaking, at least. And that accounts for the shift or the flip in trends, which we're still seeing this year. All right, Craig Patrick, a lot to digest. And what, less than a week now? to do it. All right. Thank you.