X Flare! Solar Winds! CME Impact! Complete Solar Weather Update!

James Copeland, World News Report today. Ladies and gentlemen, we've just had an X-class solar flare and associated coronal mass ejection. Start here with our KP indexes very quickly. We are seeing a disturbance and a geomagnetic storm on two of the indexes, the College and Boulder. Nothing going on on the estimated planetary index or the Fredericksburg index. These disturbances and storms would have to have been caused by one of the backside eruptions as there's been no activity front side and we're not expecting solar winds until late tomorrow into the sixth although we will take a look at discovering a satellites to make sure that we're correct all right we have had an x-class solar flare And, well, it was an X1.8 solar flare that created an R3 radio blackout. A pretty strong radio blackout, although it really doesn't look as strong as I think it should on our X-ray absorption charts. An R3 event occurred today, the 4th of November, at approximately 1234 Eastern Time or 1134 Central Time. And actually it was expelled from sunspot region 4274. I believe that's now a delta class sunspot. The last time we were hit with an R3 was June 19th of this year. So we're talking about several months ago. We're still waiting for confirmation that a coronal mass ejection was lifted from our sun with this event. Over to our GOES X-ray flux, our GOES satellite, GOES 19, you can see that X1.8 solar flare there, and this shows really it peaking at about 1745, which again would be exactly 1145 or 1138 central time here in the U.S. We're just getting over this. It was the strongest flare we've seen since June 19th. We also had an additional M flare earlier in the day. It looks like it was about an M of 3.54. We'll be able to determine exactly how strong that flare was in just a moment. And it looks like that happened at about 1.50 UTC time. So really about 8.50 last night central time. It's about to get crazy on our sun, folks. Head over to SpaceWeatherLive.com. We see that the X1.8 solar flare and perhaps the associated coronal mass ejection was generated from sunspot AR4274. That is now a Delta-class sunspot group. You can tell because of the red color here. And you can move down here. I don't see it mentioned yet. But that's where it occurred from, and I will show it to you in our GOES solar ultraviolet imager. The earlier M3.5 solar flare that peaked at 1.48 or about 8.48 last night central time was in fact generated by that same sunspot group, AR4274 delta class. It had just morphed into a delta class from a beta gamma class you can see here in orange. So I thought 4272 was going to get into the mix. It's still a simple sunspot group. We had a 10% chance of X-class solar flare today. That ship sailed. We had a 65% chance of an M-class solar flare today. That ship sailed. Currently running a C3.29 and a C baseline. Over to HMI Intensigram. We had, well... Everything generated from 4274. We only have four sunspot groups, really five. They're earth-facing on the solar disk, although two of them are beta, gamma, and one of them is a delta-class sunspot group. And we have additional sunspot groups coming around the limb. Over to GOES proton flux. We can see that this X1.8 Solar flare and perhaps associated coronal mass ejection was not as dangerous as it could have been. We see that the proton flux did not hardly bounce at all and that means we won't be seeing a polar cap absorption event unless there's more flaring in the near-term future. That means no No radiation will be point in the poles for days. All right, over to goes 195 silver ultraviolet imager, 195 angstroms. That coronal hole's directly earth-facing, beginning those winds starting late tomorrow into the 6th. You can see the X-class solar flare that just popped off. You can also see the filament and the coronal mass ejection that slung off from the face of the sun. There's definitely going to be an earth component to this, although it's not going to be that significant. We can tell by the proton flux, also the D-region absorption prediction center, where we'll see that we did get an R3. Surprisingly, it just doesn't look like an R3 radio blackout to me. We also see all the other sunspots coming around the mountain. Again, this is. AR-4274, AR-4272 is right here, which is remaining, remaining simple. Over at Lasco C3, we really have a treat for y'all today. First, the M3.5, exactly where it should have gone, and then that X-Flare. It might not have an earth component to it. It does look like a... It went off towards the left here, so we'll have to wait and see what they say. Yes. Yesterday's eruption had more of a halo to it. We'll expect an impact from yesterday's eruption, which wasn't as large, but definitely, definitely will have an Earth component to it. And that will probably happen tomorrow late on the 5th into the 6th as well. So we'll have that double whammy. We'll have what happened yesterday, the solar flare, the coronal hole that's been Earth-facing now. And we very well could see this X-Flare or another X-Flare that's generated at any time now. Over to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Taxpayers have spent millions of dollars on this, and it's completely useless. Today is the 4th. We're looking at plasma from about 2 to 3 centimeters cubed. No plasma whatsoever. And they're looking at plasma impact on the 7th. Late on the 7th, I'm going to move that up to the 6th. I'm going to move that up to the 6th for them, since I don't believe they're paying attention. We'll also take a look at the solar winds here. Today is the 4th. Looks like they have them starting right at 500 and working their way down to about 450. 500 to 450 and 2 to 3. We'll see how they did as soon as we take a look at our D-region absorption prediction center. This was our R3 radio blackout. You can see, get right to the minute. They say it peaked at 38, that's as close as I can get, and you can see there's not a lot of radio automation here. It's just not as powerful as I think it would be if there was more of an earth component to it. So I'm definitely not that worried about this X-Flare. I'm more worried about the M-class little flare that we saw yesterday. which they have tracked for an impact on the 7th. I say it'll be here on the 6th. All right, this day in history we had the strongest X-Flare that we've recorded with any of our space equipment and they believe this is the strongest flare since the Carrington event. They're calling this an X-40. The story that I'm about to do on it it's going to call it an X-45. They believe the Carrington event was an X45 and maybe stronger up to maybe an X80 or 90. Again, this happened on this exact day, November 4th, 2003. Just two solar cycles back from here. Remember, a solar cycle is exactly 11 years, and this was exactly 22 years ago today. An X40. Wow. Alright, we remember what the Space Weather Prediction Center said, 2 to 3 in plasma, 500 to 450 in solar winds, let's take a look, there shouldn't be anything on those KP indexes, I don't see any type of solar events, solar weather here, shields are definitely down, so anything, anything is going to be geo-effective. It looks like they got the plasma perfect here. They bumped it up here. I'd say this is a perfect call. Let's see how they did with the solar winds from 500. They got them starting at 42. Pretty good. Down to 358 instead of 458. Now, that's quite a difference. I would see nothing on this chart. Look at temperatures dropping below normal. Nothing on this chart that should have caused the KP indexes in Fredericksburg and the college KP index to indicate a geomagnetic disturbance or storm. The only factor that's creating that is that Earth has no atmosphere anymore. If we were to get hit by an X-40 flare in these days, we would fry like eggs. Our shields are down here also. I call them shields down. This means they have a southern component to it. And when they get in the, well, in this position, Earth is much more vulnerable to anything that strikes it. So the Space Weather Prediction Center didn't do as bad as I thought it would. Got one anomaly up here. Looks like it's like 50 centimeters cubed. I'm going to call them, there's several of them. Call them anomalies because I don't see any. Temperature variations or solar wind variations during those time periods, well, we're going to still call them anomalies. Shields down here, plasma at 1 to 3 as we saw. This is ACE satellite, our older space weather satellite, and our plasma started right around 488, and now it's down to 358. I thought it was only going down to 450. So it's down quite a bit, and look how mild the temperatures are. So this was the best the Space Weather Prediction Center's ever done, but let me say that this was way out, i.e. they haven't adjusted it in days and days. I will show you, and oftentimes that's when they do their very best, is when it's, well, something they weren't concentrating on, and they kind of fall backwards ass into it. Now, SDO is still shut down because of our government shutdown. And for some reason, SOHO, that's supposed to be a European instrument, has also been shut down because of the government shutdown. At least all the feeds I can find to it. If anyone can find a real-time feed, please let me know. Probably coming out of Europe somewhere. They do, or they are updating this one photo, the daily SDO HMI magnetogram image, and we can see that we have two, two beta gamma sunspots, one simple sunspot here, and that bad boy delta sunspot that just created both the M3.5 and the X1.8 solar flares. I just hope it's not far enough around the limb to be bothering Earth quite yet. Remember, it takes about 12 days if it's on the equator, near the equator, for a sunspot to transit the Earth-facing side of our sun. Look at all those backside flares that occurred when the I-3 Atlas flew by. I assume that's what caused all that crazy activity back there. earth is this little blue dot right here and oh today is the fourth they're looking for impact i believe on the seventh two uh they actually put that up yesterday after it happened see whether that today fourth they've got plasma awful high at about five going up to about eight here uh and solar winds they should be see if this is the fourth starting right here so They really messed the plasma up from 5 to about 8. It was from 1 to 3. And then they totally screwed up the solar winds. They have them starting the day out at 4, at 375. They started the day out at 488. And they have them ending the day. Let's see if we can get a good look here. Right there. Ending the day at about 300. They're at 358 right now. But they started so off that this wouldn't count. They started at 350. So they started below where we are currently in the days almost over, UTC time-wise. And really, the wind started closer to 500 kilometers per second. Bad job. As always, Euphoria, the European Space Agency. Another waste of billions of dollars. and wow it's definitely go time here guys earth is having the moon swing behind it it'll line up with well all these gas giants really behind it here and somewhat line up perfectly with uranus earth and the sun for the sixth seventh we talked about that lineup We have that coronal hole that's going to impact Earth on the 6th. They say the 7th. We also have that CME that they say is going to hit on the 7th. I believe it will probably be later on the 6th. We have a geomagnetic connection currently to Saturn, Neptune, Sirius, Eris, and Uranus. As we move into, see here, the 11th, November 11th, we catch up or catch a geomagnetic connection to Mercury here. We have our moon coming around from just this perfect lineup. With geomagnetic connections to everything. Looks like on the 13th we get a geomagnetic connection to Jupiter here. Look at this. Look at this falling into place. Watch the moon come right up to where it needs to come. That's downright scary. From the 19th, 20th, and 21st, it's downright scary. And it might go as far as the 22nd. So the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd. Katie Bar-the-Door, if you've ever heard that expression. If Venus was just a little bit, it's still upsetting, but if it was just a little bit further around, it could even be worse. I don't know how it could be worse, though. Look at this perfect cross that's being made. Here we have the geomagnetic connection. We lost only Pluto's geomagnetic connection. We gained Mercury and the biggest planet in our solar system, Jupiter. And obviously, that is Go Day, the 20th, 19th, 20th, 21st, real watch days, the 6th and 7th additional watch days. We call that both those months ago. I know the other people that try to do Space Weather try are now telling you all about this, but that's only because they watch the show. God bless, guys. Please share, subscribe, and always remember. Anything is possible in Bizarro World. And listen, make sure to give us a thumbs up. I want to see a bunch of thumbs up. Make sure to chat a lot or leave messages if you're watching after the premiere. And help us with a cup of coffee. That link's always in the description of every video. If you don't see it in this one, go to another one. We need some coffee, guys. Keep this machine running. God bless. Y'all have a wonderful, wonderful day.