Increased Solar Activity! Delta Class Sunpots Earth Facing And Rapidly Firing!

James Coffman, World News Report, today. Ladies and gentlemen, it is the 13th of October, and we have slowly come out of that geomagnetic storm caused by that Earth-facing coronal hole. Taking a look at our estimated planetary KP index, kind of gives us an idea of the solar winds and plasma hitting Earth, and you can see it's winged off from a geomagnetic storm earlier in the day. to a disturbance and now we're down into regular territory with no geomagnetic disturbances or storms happening currently. Now some of the other indexes indicate other things but we always try to use the estimated planetary index as that is NOAA and NASA's go-to index that has been recently updated. All right, so far today, we have a sun that's getting very angry. We have two Delta-class sunspots now, the most complex sunspots known, and one of them in particular, AR4246, has been being nasty to us. It started the day off at about, let's see here, 530 UTC time, which would be 1230 Central Time here in the U.S. This morning with a M1.9 plus solar flare that was followed up at 9.30 UTC time which would be about 2.30 central time with an M2.75 solar flare. These are all coming from AR4246 that's It's directly earth facing that I will show you right after I show you the third. M-class solar flare. It's an M, what I believe to be an M1.3 solar flare, maybe a little bit stronger, as you can see here. And it occurred right after 1.15 UTC time, which is going to be around 5.15, give or take central time here this morning in the U.S. So that is the last M-Flare we've had. We had an M1.9, an M2.75, and now something that looks to be about an M1.3+, although it has not been rated completely by NOAA and NASA. All right, taking a look at those flares, AR4246. You can see it started the day. As really a simple flare then turned into a beta gamma flare here in orange and has now read a delta class, delta class actual sunspot group. You can see that it also is responsible for this C9.3. Here is the first of the bunch here, an M1.9 happening right around 1230 this morning. And here is the second largest of the bunch, an M2.75, happening right around 9.20. Again, that's going to be about 2.20 central time. And the last event, the 1.3, doesn't show up here yet. Today, we have a 5% chance of having an X-class solar flare, a 40% chance of having an M-class solar flare. That's going to all rise significantly now that we have two, two Delta sunspot groups. We also have AR-4248 that's also morphed from simple to beta gamma to delta class. And we're running a C-3 baseline, i.e., so the M-class solar flare ship has sailed. And of course, since we're running a C3 baseline, we have a 99% chance of having a C flare. All right, and as I told y'all, everything's coming right at us from AR-4246 up here, just about directly earth-facing. It's more from simple to more complex to the most complex Delta class just over the last six hours. And so has AR4248. It's morphed from simple to beta gamma to delta in just the last six hours. So we went from a very happy sun to a very angry sun. We currently only have six named sunspot groups earth facing. And I will say that 4252 also looks like it's becoming very complex. All right, head over to GOES-19 solar ultraviolet imager. These are our two Delta-class sunspots. I think that AR-4246 is responsible for all three M-class solar flares, although we do see some action here on top of AR-4248, the other Delta-class sunspot group. We're waiting on confirmation from the M1.3. which hasn't been assigned to a sunspot group yet but visually it looks like it occurred as you can see from AR-4246 again six total sunspot groups uh earth facing on our solar disk several more coming around the limb look at this mess up here with the dark filaments and we also look like we have a coronal hole coming around the limb as well Now, NOAA has indicated that plasma will be inbound from a coronal mass ejection lifted by one of these M-flares. I am guessing the 2.75 was sufficient enough or large enough to lift at least one coronal mass ejection and, well, push it towards Earth. And they're looking for an impact late on the 16th here with plasma just over 15 centimeters cubed. Until then, it looks like they think everything's all quiet. We also have solar winds on the 17th, or late on the 16th, into the 17th, moving up to about 675 kilometers per second. So again, they have at least one impact inbound, and that's for late on the 16th, today being the 13th. So we're looking at about 70 hours until impact. All right, we have the event that was at 5.30 UTC time, the event at 9.19 UTC time, but at 7.06, we do see plasma that's being pushed away from the sun, but at 7.06, the data is missing for over an eight-hour period, eight hours and 12 minutes to be exact. And that would be the time period that we had our 2.75. A solar flare that most probably ended up in the coronal mass ejection that NOAA is now indicating is inbound for a direct hit on Earth. Taking a look at our D-region absorption prediction, we can see the last part of that big flare there. And then we move into, believe it or not, a sea flare right there over Africa. It's a C9, so it was a strong flare. And then this is going to be our M1.3 over most of the Atlantic parts of Africa and Brazil, i.e. South America. And that should be the last strong flare. Well, there's another flare we see there at 1650, 1700 ETC time. And I did just check that one. It was a C7.25. We can line up the time period perfectly with that strong C-flip. So, and this would be, again, the 0.3 here. We can kind of go backwards right there. And we can see the very end, if you will, which is right there, of the 2.75. That's about all we can, there it is right there, 2.75. Over to SDOHMI Magnetogram Image. Now, most SDO is down, but they're still running some of these images. These two are current as of today, and these are our two bad boys here. It looks like they're normal polarity, although they're delta-class sunspots. This is our AR4246, and this is 4248, and, well, we have more complexity starting down here that we spoke about. So, that's going to be fairly complex as it rolls to be more earth-facing. So, it doesn't look like the sun's very angry, but it is because we have two delta-class sunspots earth-facing. Over to Soho, 284 angstroms. Thanks, Jums. This was updated at 8.06 last night. Central time, 106 UTC time. You can see that solar tornado and dancing dark filaments here. You can also see Well, AR-4652 that's moved further around the land by now and looks fairly complex, but it's still simple. Then we see our two bad boys here. AR-4246, Delta class now, and more from simple. Beta Gamma to Delta, as did AR-4248 in the last six hours. And there is some argument that this could be a coronal hole coming around the limb. We'll know more about that by tomorrow. Finally, taking a look at where Earth is with all the other planets, we still have a geomagnetic connection of Pluto behind us, Saturn and Neptune. And Sirius, the moon is at a 9 degree angle here, so it's not a huge player. We will have a lineup between Uranus, the Moon, and the Sun coming up shortly here, within two weeks, with all these geomagnetic connections, Uranus, Eris, Sirius, Neptune, Saturn, and Pluto. We can expect an earthquake at any time. We can expect upticks in solar activity. You don't necessarily need a planetary lineup when you have this much Geomagnetism at work. That's really all it takes to move the plates on Earth, i.e., which causes volcanic and earthquake activity. So, you can also see the solar activity is ready to rumble because we're facing all of these gas giants and because we're in between the gas giants and our sun. That said, God bless you guys. please share our video please help the channel with a cup of coffee if you're able or super thanks uh gotta keep those expenses paid and ladies and gentlemen Subscribe if you haven't, always remember, anything's possible, bizarro world.