'This is the chance voters have at accountability': Midterm analysis

Professor Michael Rasmussen, a politics professor at Rider University. Michael, thank you so much for being with us. We appreciate it. Thank you for having me, Lisa. Okay, so Michael, when you look at the, there seems to be a very unusual energy, kind of an intensity around these midterms, which doesn't seem too typical in non-presidential election years. Is that your sense, or what do you make of this? Yeah, you're absolutely right that in the United States, the typical high level of interest is in our presidential years. That is when we get the highest turnout of voters by far. And typically, there is a lot less interest in the off years, in the years when we're not electing a president. And so the question is that you're asking is a great one. Why is there such interest this year? Well, this is the chance that voters have at accountability. For federal policies that they care a lot about, whether it's the Iran war, whether it's the resulting inflation or the price of gas or the price of diesel or all those policies that matter to them. Positively or negatively, the real question for voters is, do you want to give President Trump more power in Congress for the second half of his term? Do you think he's used power correctly and you want to give him more because you're a supporter? Or do you want to check and curb his power in Congress and give it to the other party so that they can check his power for the second two years of his term? And that's really our mechanism to hold our officials accountable. And it seems that this year, more voters do want to participate in that question. And they do want to render a verdict, positively and negatively, like so many elections in the Trump era. Trump is the motivating factor. And then, Micah, you're saying Trump is the motivating factor. But in terms in terms of the actual numbers that they need to change the balance of power in D.C., how realistic is it with what's going on? Yeah. So in the House. Four hundred and thirty five seats are up and only four need to change hands in order to change the balance of power, in order to change control from the Republicans in the House leading, being the majority, to the Democrats. And that seems more than possible. It seems all but certain, given where we know these races are. And we don't just say that based on polling. Lisa, in the last segment, you talked about polling error. That absolutely is something that we always keep an eye on and have to contend with. But does the polling say the same thing to us as early voting? Does it say the same thing to us as the special elections that have happened this year since the last election? Does it say the same thing as how voters are registering when they become new voters? And this year, everything seems to be pointing in the same direction, which is very much in the blue direction, in the potential blue wave that is forming in the early vote. It is something that Republicans have to contend with. They are swimming upstream. And so you're saying, and in terms of the issues, we're talking the economy, right? The price of everything, the high price of everything, the price of gas, are those the main issues? Yes, absolutely. And that affordability question is one that the president promised to do something about two years ago. And really, has the situation gotten better since he made that promise or has it gotten worse? Now, some supporters may say that's not fair. There are a lot of factors out of his control. No question. That's absolutely a fair point. But he's the one who made the promise. And so now... People have to answer the question, do you feel like he's kept the promise or not? A lot of ads around the country are using that old clip of President Ronald Reagan saying, are you better off now than you were four years ago? And turning it on its head and saying, how do you feel now compared to how you felt two years ago? Okay, and then let's turn our attention to New York State right now. We just heard from our Morgan McKay. She's been following the gubernatorial race here very, very closely on a daily basis. In terms of Governor Hochul versus Bruce Blakeman, is it... A done deal that it'll be Governor Hochul because she's been ahead all along? Or what do you see as the key factors here that will determine the outcome? It was really interesting to listen to your discussion because, you know. So Blakeman does have to do well in the city. But is there any erosion for him in the rest of the state? There are a lot of competitive House races upstate that I don't think Republicans ever intended to be the dogfight that they are. They could lose a number of those seats. And so therefore, the situation statewide may be different than the assumption that, OK, you have to get a third of the vote in the city. You may have to make up more than that in the races, the tight For that congressional control that you're seeing across the rest of the state. So, again, it's just a really tall order for Republicans anywhere to hold on this year. In the reddest of red states, they are having trouble holding on. In Kansas, in South Carolina, in Arkansas, in Mississippi. And so if you think that Republicans are struggling in those places, are they struggling in a state like New York? You better believe it. And then in terms of the congressional races in our area. Let's look at New Jersey. What's the top one there and what are we seeing? Tom Kane is the congressman from the 7th District. This is part of Morris County and Somerset County and north-central New Jersey, suburban New Jersey, a number of counties in our northern part of the state. The Kane family has been in office on and off in New Jersey for the last 250 years. It is a strong family tradition. It goes back to they were related to the first governor of the state. The problem is that Tom Kaine has to defend not only the nationalized politics and the president who he has had his differences with, but also has defended in a number of ways. He said that he thinks that we are winning the war. He says that he endorses the president's tariff policies. He's struck differences in other areas. But the question that voters have is, is he going to be somebody that stands up to Trump? He's running against a helicopter a mom, Rebecca Bennett, who has done very well on the trail, who has introduced herself to voters over the last year and a half. She has raised money, gone toe to toe with him. Remember, the middle of this race is the one where he had that mental health crisis, went off the trail, went missing for 117 days. We didn't know where he was. My fear for him is that that is the lasting impression that people have of him and becomes fresh in their minds. And the thing that They know about him more than anything else, more than his policies, more than his votes, because it was such a big national story. That may be what people remember. And if that's the case, he's got to defy that impression. And that's a hard thing to do. Has any of that come up in the about that missing period come up in the campaign as it has? There have been. There have been ads. There have been independent packs. Bennett herself has not talked about it all that much. She, you know, of course, like many people in the state and in the district, wished him well, glad he got the treatment he needed. But some of the ads, the independent ads, have been pretty rough about that. And again, I don't think the issue is That he sought mental health treatment, not at all. I think the issue is disappearing and not letting anybody know where he was and why he was off the job. That's the question that voters have. Right. And then compared to a woman who served the military, helicopter pilot, mom, you know, the whole handling a lot of different life roles all at the same time. So that'll be interesting. And then, Micah, in New Jersey overall, any idea of what the voter turnout has been like so far? Yes, we have had a very heavy early in-person vote. We've got over 1.1 million people who have voted so far. We may have another million people who vote tomorrow. And it is really a stark difference. There are 400,000 more Democrats who have voted so far than Republicans. And I'm never somebody who says that that's predictive. But what it does tell us is How much of a hold Republicans need to make up to get to even ground tomorrow? They need to have as good an election day as Democrats have had before election day. All right. Now, what about the the other other another hot, hotly contested congressional race in Westchester County? The Lawler versus Kay Conley. What do you see happening with that? Yeah, so this is another challenger who is a military veteran, Kate Conley. It has been difficult, I think, for Congressman Mueller to put her in that. Democratic socialist box outside the mainstream far left when she is more out of the foreign policy wing of the Democratic Party, and I think that that's probably been very frustrating to him. On the other hand, strong campaigner. He's known as long as he's been in office in this tough district that there are more Democrats than Republicans. He has found support where he could. He is close to the conservative Jewish community where there are lots of conservative votes, And he has been a strong campaigner. And he's managed to survive so far. But again, he is swimming against this giant blue wave. The question is, is it big enough that he just can't withstand it or is it manageable that he can ride it out? And then back to the turnout issue, because early voting in a lot of places, it seems to be a lot heavier than it would normally be at this far in advance of the election. And also for a midterm election. Is there anything you can draw from that at this particular point, or is that just a good sign that early voting has made it a lot more convenient for Americans to actually cast their ballots instead of having it limited like it used to be to just one day and certain hours, and if you were working and commuting, you had no chance of really being able to vote like that? Well, I really like your way of looking at it, and you're exactly right about that. It's never been easier to vote. Unfortunately, some of our methods of voting have gotten to be partisan, and they have come under attack by President Trump, by Republicans who say, you know, mail-in voting disadvantages us. Well, it never did until they started to complain about it and say that Democrats vote by that method. So, you know what? Democrats do like mail-in voting, and it's been very popular for them, and they get a lot of votes that way. Same security measures as voting at the polls. People don't believe that, who don't want to believe that. Very much a secure way of voting, and Republicans have tried to convince their voters, yes, you can vote, you can trust it, you can rely on it. The early in-person voting is typically one that more Republicans like because they can vote on the machines, but this year they have not managed to get any traction. They've not managed to cut into that mail-in lead. The Democrats have outvoted in the early voting period Republicans just like they have in the mail-in voting. And so that leaves the election day vote and how big that's going to be. And again, there's no question that many Republicans are waiting to vote till election day. No question about that. You need such a lopsided election day to make up, in New Jersey's case, 400,000 votes. And it's no less daunting in Lawler's district or in Kaine's district because, you know, just in rough numbers, we're talking 57, 58, 60 percent Democrats of the early voting have been Democrats, and, you know, 30, 35, 40 percent have been Republicans. That is a 20 percent differential, and it's one that they've got a lot of ground to make up. To get themselves back to even. No, absolutely. Well, thank you so much for breaking this all down for us. We appreciate it. Professor Michael Rasmussen, he's a politics professor at Rider University. Thank you so much.