Democrats lead in national polls as Trump makes final push ahead of U.S. midterms

A final campaign push is underway across the United States tonight on the eve of the crucial midterm elections that will define the course of the rest of Donald Trump's presidency. Control of both chambers of Congress hangs in the balance, but with Americans widely unhappy with the rising cost of living and Trump's approval rating plummeting, polls show Democrats have a serious edge in most key battleground states. Katie Simpson begins our coverage in one of those states tonight, Texas, with the races to watch and the president's final pitch where he seemed to acknowledge the results might not go his way. In his final pitch to voters before the midterm elections, the U.S. president strayed remarkably from a traditional campaign message. Standing in front of the recently repaired reflecting pool, Donald Trump spoke extensively of building and renovations. These are the pipes. He even had big prop photos ready to go. And by the time he got around to his campaign rhetoric, Trump seemed less optimistic than usual. For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms, We gave this a very strong shot. Polls have consistently suggested Republicans are on track to lose their majority in the House by how much varies by poll. Republicans could also lose control of the Senate with Ohio, Kansas, Iowa and Texas traditional conservative strongholds all considered toss-up races. And if we quit wasting money on foreign wars, if we quit giving money to billionaires, if we quit doing these dumb tariffs and things like that. You know, we can make people's lives better. Democrats have built momentum by focusing on affordability. But a late campaign bombshell is upending that message in must-win Michigan after Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens threw her support behind the Republican Senate candidate. Abdul Al-Sayed, the Democrat in that close race, is brushing it off. I've said what I need to say about that. So let's talk about gas groceries and how we're going to defeat Trumpism. Make sure they have a plan to vote. In the final hours of this campaign, there is no way to be certain how any of this will actually play out. As a Democrat, how do you feel right now? Um, I... I'm sure everybody has mentioned the, you know, having hope so many times and having been let down. At a door-knocking event in Austin, Texas, Democrats are hesitant to believe the polls, especially ones that give their party an edge in a close Senate race. I feel nervous and positively. We're going to have a lot of Positively hesitant. One thing voters here in Texas have told me is that they're encouraged by the record turnout in early voting. Records have been set in other states as well and Democrats hope the enthusiasm will break their way. And Katie, you're in Austin where the Democratic candidate James Tallarico is holding his final rally. Sure sounds like a party. Yeah, there clearly is a lot of excitement here, but that excitement is tempered by reality. A Democrat hasn't won a race for Senate since 1988. And even though Ken Paxton, the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate, comes with a lot of baggage and a lot of scandals, he is a Republican. And this is, after all, Texas. All right, that is Katie Simpson in Austin, Texas, tonight. So as Katie mentioned, the key race to watch is in Michigan. David Kaman is in Detroit tonight. David, is the political turmoil there likely in any way to sway voters? Well, that was absolutely the intent, Adrian. And it comes in a precipitous moment for the Democratic Senate candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, just as he was beginning to create some distance with his Republican challenger, Mike Rogers. Now this. So what was the motivation? Look, it does speak to some of the challenges within the Democratic Party. There is division. There is not unity. One of those issues. He's around the Middle East. Haley Stevens, who's gone and endorsed the Republican candidate here, is very pro-Israel. Abdul El-Sayed is not. That could be an issue. So, too, the fact that she was his main challenger for the Senate nomination. She lost out. Is that a factor? Perhaps. Again, strikes at that unity issue. Also, where it happened, in a black church. The black electorate in the United States is not a monolith, but Democrats have tended to rely on the black vote. Does this influence it in this critical, very close race? Perhaps the answer to come on Tuesday. And so, David, a tariff's also obviously a major election issue in Michigan, right next door. Yeah, very close. Canada's a kilometer that way. And look, a Republican strategist said to me, this state, probably more than any others, feels the tariff war with Canada. And around here, when people find out you're Canadian, some of them apologize for the rhetoric, some of them endorse it. But ultimately, it is on people's mind. Why? Because in this state, and a number of others, the idea of tariffs, and particularly tariffs against Canada, has been equated with what is really the ballot box issue, that is cost of living. By connecting those two, in particular the Democrats, have made it a major issue in Michigan, and something that is driving people as they head to the polls. All right, thank you. And David, you'll have more from Michigan later for us in the hour. Thank you. All right, let's bring in senior Washington correspondent, Paul Hunter. Paul, I mean, on the face of it, it certainly seems that there's been a shift in voter intentions. But I suppose the most important question is, is that real? Yeah, well, we'll find out tomorrow, won't we? I mean, look, if you'd asked me that question six months ago, what's going to happen on midterms, I probably would have said it's likely Democrats will win back control of the House. And I think a lot of people would agree with me on that. On the Senate side. I think I would have almost laughed because the odds were so stacked against Democrats. It just didn't seem remotely possible. And yet here we are, right? The conversation now is not so much whether Democrats will win control of the House, but by how much? Will the so-called blue wave, in fact, be a tsunami? On the Senate side, the mere fact we're having this conversation about the... The possibility, the likelihood that Democrats could win on the Senate side is unto itself remarkable. But consider as well some of the states that they may well win in order to do that. North Carolina, sure. Ohio, yeah. Iowa, Texas, where they haven't won since 1988, Kansas, where they haven't won since 1932, and they may win there tomorrow night. Why is this happening? Because Donald Trump, because self-inflicted wounds. You know, he effectively tariffed the world, and guess what? Prices went up in America. Voters don't like that. Starts the war in Iran, prices went up further. Voters don't like that. A lot of voters don't like... The ICE raids say they've gone too far. A lot of voters don't like the data centers that Trump supports. So a lot of voters say the polls will vote Democrat. Republicans I've spoken with say don't believe the polls because they don't trust them. They don't trust pollsters. They don't like polls. Therefore, they don't answer questions from pollsters. Therefore, say Republicans don't believe the polls, they'll be fine. We'll find out tomorrow. We will indeed. And you and I are going to be here. You're going to go the distance with us tomorrow night as results come in. And as you say, we will see what happens. It's going to be a good one.