US Midterms: Could a blue wave widen the centrist-progressive divide among Democrats ahead of 2028?

And joining me now is Katie Hull, an American politics specialist from the University of Amsterdam, and also with me in the studio is Philip Toll, our international affairs editor. Katie, let me start with you. Donald Trump has urged his supporters to vote as though his own name was on the ballot and not that of the Republican candidate. What does that say about the way he views his own party? I think he views his own party as peripheral to himself, right? So it's not necessarily strategically the best move for the party. And a lot of members of Trump's party are trying to distance themselves from him at the moment because the association is pretty toxic. But this is a politician who is charismatic and who has frequently put himself over conventional party politics. Can I also ask you, if the Democrats do gain control of the House, the Senate, or indeed both, as polls are certainly predicting a win in the Congress, what practical measures could they take to challenge or limit Trump's administration in the final two years of him being in office? One of the most obvious practical measures would be impeachment. Thank One of my colleagues recently explained that I think it's quite unlikely for them to go after impeaching Trump just because the political costs you and friction and backlash to that could be quite significant. However, it would be likely that they would impeach very a member of his cabinet, for instance, Pete Hegseth Another practical step they can take is through powering committees, much. which are sort of a relatively unknown aspect of politics from a European perspective, but politics in D.C., a lot of the key decisions are made in committees. Philip, let me bring you in. How significant would a Democratic victory be in either the House or the Senate in terms of balance of political power in Washington? Well, I think that there is definitely a willingness at the moment for many in the United States to see a change. They certainly just don't want this to carry on. They don't want Trump in power anymore. As we've been saying, they've been struggling to make it and to meet their anger about the war in Iran. They don't really see the reason for it. They're disappointed with Donald Trump. So they're shifting towards the Democratic Party. I think The problem here is that there are many who would always support the Democratic Party, but there are others who are so annoyed with what Trump has been doing and they feel let down by Trump. They would be traditional Republican voters, but as a way of protesting against Donald Trump, they are moving towards the Democratic Party as a way of protest, but not necessarily because they like the Democrats. I think the Democrats. are going to find that quite hard to deal with in the long term because they'll find that there will be a split we've already seen some splits between different factions within the Democratic party you have those who are more center uh center left then you have more on the far left as well that is another challenge that the Democrats are going to have to deal with once and if they take power of the House of Representatives and eventually also of the Senate but I think there is A willingness right now that's taken over the questions of all of how this is going to proceed in the future over the fact that so many people want to see an end to Donald Trump, or at least Donald Trump not being able to continue in the same way and a change in the economy and an end to the war in Iran, that they're willing to take the chance and vote for the Democrats. Katie, there are also growing concerns that if the result is against him, that Trump may refuse to acknowledge the outcome. Do you think that's likely to happen? I do think that's likely to happen. History of Donald Trump seems to teach us that when the elections don't go in his favour, he questions the results. The Justice Department's already keying up to delegitimise the elections in places like Alaska and California, so it's quite hard to fathom that he would respond to results not going in his favour any other way. A question for both of you as we wrap up this segment of the news. Coming back to you, Philip, beyond the immediate results, what do these elections reveal about the political divisions within American society and the future direction of both the Republicans and the Democratic parties? I think that this is illustrated that there is really a huge divide in the United States. It's not only in the United States. We're seeing it also here in Europe with the rise of the far right and fears about the far right taking power in many countries around Europe, none less so than here in France with Marine Le Pen riding very high in the opinion polls ahead of next year's presidential elections. So I think there is a definite divide that is... Uh, important in Europe, but maybe even more so, uh, in, in the United States. I think a lot of questions are going to be asked once this is over and done. I don't think right now, but I think after, uh, the Trump administration is out of office in two years time, which depends how this is all going to end as well, whether Donald Trump will go quietly, whether he will try to, uh, make it possible for him to have another term as president. We really don't know how all of this is going to play out. I think even more so in the next few days. How Donald Trump is going to react as a result of what has happened in these elections. How will the result be taken in by him and what will he do? I think certainly a lot of questions about the way the United States is going to be moving forward after these elections are over. And Katie, your thoughts? My thoughts, just to add to Philip's excellent thoughts, are that another open question is going to be the future direction of the Democratic Party, right? Because we don't see a united party. So even if we see the Democrats succeed at the ballot, the question is going to be, is the party moving in a progressive direction or is that actually moving in a very, by American standards, centrist, by European standards, conservative direction? And are those two? Two sides of the Democratic Party compatible and will they actually be able to win at the presidential level? Thank you. I want to thank both Katie Hall from the University of Amsterdam and Philip Toll, our International Affairs Editor.