Why aggressive Republican gerrymandering may not save them

We're going to keep and grow this majority in this cycle and I'm absolutely convinced, especially after the redistricting. The polite word is redistricting, but really it's gerrymandering. They're cheating. Redrawing House congressional districts for maximum partisan advantage. It looks like we're going to pick up a lot of seats and that's a good thing. And while pressure from Donald Trump started this round, it isn't a new tactic. Both parties do it. It's not good for our democratic system. But in the past, it was only done once a decade after a new census prompted changes. What's different now is that we have seen several states this cycle redistrict purely for partisan reasons in the middle of the decade. So take Tennessee. In 2024, about a third of the popular vote here was for Democrats, but Because that vote is spread out among nine districts, just one centered on the city of Memphis, sent a Democrat to Congress. The new 2026 map splits that last majority Democratic district into three solidly Republican districts, which could turn Tennessee entirely red. Texas, of course, was where this began. Democrats then, of course, were able to draw a heavily gerrymandered map that favors them in California. I know they say don't mess with Texas. Well, don't mess with the great golden state. And then the Supreme Court ruled on a case that essentially weakened the provision of the Voting Rights Act. The provision in that civil rights legislation that protected black districts in southern states, clearing the way for a bonanza of Republican gerrymandering. However you justify this, this is an act of hate. In the end, if voting patterns from 2024 hold up, Republicans have redrawn five additional safe seats in Texas, four in Florida, and one or two in a handful of other states for a total of 15. Democrats managed to gerrymander just five blue districts in California, and thanks to a court ruling, can expect another safe seat in Utah. At first glance, Trump's GOP appears to have won the redistricting war, This is not 2024. The problem for Republicans is they drew maps that were optimistic. These districts are not voting the same way that they did in 2024. Surging prices, plummeting popularity may have created a problem too big to fix by just moving lines on a map. Our projection right now is that Republicans are able to net around three seats as a result of redistricting alone, which is, again, not that many. If that prediction holds and a blue wave comes crashing, gerrymandering won't save the Republican House majority.