Midterms; high stakes for Ukraine, Europe and NATO.

Good evening, I'm Maciej Mikos and you're watching World News Tonight live from Warsaw. It's election day in the US with Democrats and Republicans competing for seats in Congress. We have our correspondent Kazimierz Wysiak following the situation in Michigan and Alex Kadier reporting from Texas. We'll join them to talk about the American midterm vote in a moment but first here are tonight's headlines. Dozens dead after Russian attacks in Ukraine. Poland's constitutional tribunal convenes amid a battle over its leadership. And Polish special forces deploy to the border with Russia. It's election day in America. Early voters have turned out in record numbers in what is being dubbed a referendum on Donald Trump's second term. What America decides could empower or weaken the president and may have a big impact on European security. So let's go now live to Alex Cadier in Texas. Alex, good evening. How is it looking for President Trump? Yeah, very good evening, Maciej. It's not looking great for President Trump if the polls are to be believed. He may lose some of the most core Republican states in this country, including this, the great state of Texas, and others. Nevertheless, the U.S. president, after traveling around the country trying to garner support from his base, was back in Washington, D.C., defending his record. We've achieved more in less than two years than any administration in American history, and I've kept every single promise I made, except far more. I've actually kept far more promises than I made. We've done much more than I promised. President Trump confident about his record, but the polls suggest Americans a lot less so. Let's look at the great state of Texas where we are now. James Talarico is hoping to be the first Democrat returned to the Senate by the state of Texas since 1988. He is in the lead against Ken Paxton, the attorney general of this state, who has had hundreds of millions of dollars in support, including more than $150 million from Elon Musk himself. If you think that's historic, let's take you to Kansas, a razor-thin lead for the Democratic candidate in that state. He would be the first Democratic senator from the state of Kansas since 1932. A razor-thin lead, but this was a state that Donald Trump carried by 16 points in 2024. There are other states where there is a similar picture, a very razor-thin lead for the Democrats. You're thinking about Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, red states. Turning blue at these midterm elections. Why? Because of the key issues that Americans care about. Number one, the cost of living, the cost of petrol, 37% higher than it was this time last year. That affects particularly rural areas in big states like this one. The other issue is, of course, the perception by American people of corruption at the highest levels of government within the Trump family, a big issue for voters we've spoken to here. The war in Iran is deeply popular. The cost of living is too high. And Americans, as we've heard from so many, are feeling fed up about what they see as broken promises. But a loss for the Republicans does not necessarily mean a great triumph for the Democrats. What they are hoping for, perhaps, is that some Republicans are so disappointed, so dejected. They will just not turn out to vote, and therefore the Democrats will be able to squeak through. If they do so, they're almost certain to get the House. They're less certain to get the Senate. If they get both, they will be able to launch investigations into the Trump administration, stop President Trump's agenda, stop some of his cabinet picks and his judges. This would be a political earthquake against President Trump. It's Election Day in America, Judgment Day for President Trump. That was Alex Kardia reporting from Texas. Thank you so much, Alex. This election is being closely watched in Europe, especially in Poland and Ukraine, as the results could affect US foreign policy. So let's go now to our correspondent Kaczmirek Wyszkak in another swing state, Michigan. So good evening, Kaczmirek. What could the consequences be for our region? Good evening, Maciej, to you from the middle of the day here in Michigan. And indeed, it is the big question for Europe. How can this election affect what is happening in the region, especially... When it comes to the war in Ukraine, and it's just like Alex Karie has just told you, it's the topics of high cost of living and high fuel prices and corruption, which have been dominating the public discussions, including here in Michigan in this vote. But we are wondering what about Ukraine? And while Ukraine didn't really show up on opinion polls when voters were asked what is the most important issue for them as voters, we have been asking people here on the ground for the past week how they feel about it. ...and whether it's important to them when they are voting, particularly here in Michigan, it matters because there is a lot of diverse minorities here, some of these minorities include African-American, but also... Ukrainian and Polish. There is a large Polish diaspora in Michigan, some 8% of the state's population. We've been asking them how they feel about Ukraine and even though some of them vote Republican they still care about Ukraine and they still watch Donald Trump lately criticizing Ukraine warming up to Vladimir Putin which is creating a major dilemma for them when voting. I'm a supporter of Trump. He's done some great domestic stuff, but I am not a happy camper in regards to some of the European and especially Ukraine decisions. I would like that to end, and I would very much so like to support them a little more by giving them ways to fight off the Russian. I'm thinking... It's been too long. I've been voting with Ukraine in heart since the beginning. I've supported Ukraine on all fronts and I said earlier, I'm very disappointed that Ukraine was not a topic of conversation in the debates. Now, another way that this election can potentially influence and impact Europe, not only Ukraine, but also Poland, is the fact that it's Congress in the US which controls the budget. It's the so-called power of the purse. So the Democrats, if they get back control over Congress and the Senate, they've already hinted that they could potentially increase funding. for Ukraine, and they could potentially try to push back against Trump's controversial policies like, for example, pulling troops out of Europe. That's also what experts are saying. It is possible that Congress will be in a position to restrain or hinder some extreme administration moves like, for example, they the Congress might strengthen its current The current limits on The administration's ability to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe, a Congress controlled by Democrats, is going to find it easier to restrain bad ideas by the Trump administration, like lifting sanctions on Russia, and harder to make them do things like resume military assistance for Ukraine. They can try. So a lot of things can change for Europe if the Democrats take back control over Congress and Senate. But of course, we have to wait for these final results. As things stand, the Democrats in the final opinion polls by The New York Times and CNN have been seen leading all key swing states, including here in Michigan. That was Kazimierz Wysiak reporting from Michigan. Thank you very much, Kazimierz. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Berlin for talks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ahead of a new round of U.S.-brokered peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi. But can this new renewed diplomatic push bring Russia's war against Ukraine any closer to an end? A military welcome in Berlin as Ukraine and its European allies prepare for a new round Piotr Kućma reports. of peace negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelensky meets Chancellor Friedrich Merz with Russia's continued attacks and the question of prospects for ending the war high on the agenda. Our message to Russia is therefore as follows. It is time to end this war. The regional ceasefire in Oleshki can serve as a model for a ceasefire regarding energy and in the Black Sea. Russia has so far stubbornly refused to do so. Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has confirmed that Ukraine, Russia and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10th and 11th. Witkoff and Trump's envoy Jared Kushner are expected to represent Washington, while Putin's advisor Vladimir Medinsky, seen here, will lead the Russian delegation. Medinsky previously headed Moscow's negotiating team in Istanbul and Geneva. We expect the trilateral format to resume on November 10th and 11th. Our working groups will meet, and we anticipate that these meetings and further meetings of this kind will pave the way for a trilateral format at head of state and government level. This format can provide solutions for lasting stable peace and security. Before Abu Dhabi, American negotiators will meet European allies in Brussels to discuss security guarantees, but Kyiv remains concerned about Washington's approach to Moscow and and Putin's willingness for real peace negotiations. We don't see any intentions of Russians to do it. Russians think that they are winning the war, which is wrong. With talks in Abu Dhabi starting in a week, the question now is whether they can deliver peace. Piotr Kućma, TVP World. Staying on the topic, more than 30 people dead and some 50 still trapped under rubble. That's the aftermath of the latest Russian attack on a humanitarian aid centre in the Zaporizhia region, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. So let's go live to our correspondent, Oskar Terji, in Kyiv. Good evening, Oskar. Could you tell us more about this deadly attack? Yeah, the attack on Monday, the death toll increasing to 33 and 50, still unaccounted for. That death toll includes two rescue workers and four police officers who were trying to help those trapped under rubble when they were hit again by another Russian attack in Zaporizhia. Russia also launching one of its largest ever attacks on Ukraine's energy grid on Tuesday, while President Zelensky visiting Germany for more support from From Allies 4. Ukraine's energy grid and its air defense as it struggles to deal with these routine Russian attacks, blackouts across multiple different, at least 10 different regions suffering from attacks targeting energy infrastructure on Tuesday. Here in the Ukrainian capital, there are rolling blackouts. You can see how dark it is out here on the streets. Parts, many large parts of the city without water following these Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy. There was also an attack on a medical facility. In Kharkiv, injuring 73 people, so a mass of Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure, targeting civilians, targeting hospitals, targeting aid depots, killing rescue workers. These are the kinds of targets Russia's launching these mass attacks on Ukraine, and Ukraine's struggling to deal with it while it has a low air defense ammunition stockpile, and while its energy infrastructure's coming under severe bombardment. Ukraine really looking for support from the European Union with that regard. Now, I have one more question to you as a controversial protest involving Ukraine's National Guard broke out on Monday on the outskirts of Kiev. What exactly happened there? Well, this is certainly images that are being seized upon by Russian propagandists with response to what happened. The SBU, the Ukraine Security Service, has identified about 100 people who were involved in civil unrest. This is outside of a facility being used by the National Guard to house people that were currently absent without leave who had already agreed to return. To the front line, the National Guard have said that they will launch an investigation into the events to make sure that there was nothing untoward going on at the facility. The situation was resolved. Ultimately, Andriy Budanov, President Zelensky's chief of staff, arriving on the scene to try and calm down tensions. He's, you know, said that the A situation while not being free from outside influence with the SBU identifying pro-Russian agitators as being responsible for some of that civil unrest and the disinformation surrounding the incident. But he did concede that there are broader societal issues regarding Ukraine's conscription and the draft relating to it that need to be addressed. So that was a concession from. President Zelensky's chief of staff there, but certainly these events are being blown out of all proportion by Russian propagandists claiming it was a torture facility or something like that. Absolutely no evidence to support those theories, and certainly the Ukrainian government making sure that they have launched an investigation into the events surrounding it at the moment. Several people being investigated for civil unrest, as some of the scenes you may have seen on your screen. That's a situation ongoing in Ukraine at the moment, but certainly not one at the level currently being expressed on Russian state media, for example. That was Oskar Terje reporting from Kyiv. Thank you very much, Ozan. Stay safe. Poland is deploying special forces units to the border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and the move comes after a series of Russia-linked provocations along NATO's eastern flank. Our defence correspondent Zuzana Jurak has the details. After midnight, I received a report from the border guards that movement had been observed on the Polish-Russian border of people carrying torches. Police, border guards and special military operatives were immediately deployed to the Polish border near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, nestled between Poland and Lithuania. The main component of the armed forces, trying to alleviate some of the public concern, insists the enhanced border presence seeks to test out the interoperability of the different forces. We would like to inform you that Special Forces units are currently conducting training exercises in the Warmian-Mazurian Voivodeship in cooperation with other units of the Polish Army and the Police. But the Polish Prime Minister underlined on Tuesday that the enhanced vigilance comes as the government has received intelligence about a potential threat. Incidents, including the incursion of armed individuals into Polish territory, could occur as early as first half of November, and we decided to deploy our police forces to reinforce the border guard and counter-terrorism units. Similar reports have emerged north of Poland, in Finland and the three Baltic countries. Thank We're monitoring the Russian border guards' activities and changes in their patrol patterns. They've become more covert, installed surveillance systems on their side of the border you and are watching us more frequently. I know what's happening. very Experts suggest, however, that shoehorning focus on border areas doesn't point to an imminent danger. It's rather about operational readiness much. in order to react in the case of crisis, but we have no evidence about any conventional potential challenge at this point. Even if the risk of an incursion may be limited at present, others know that Russia has one overarching goal in mind. They want to test the response of allies, they want to test the national response, the alliance response, they want to see if they can break cohesion. Now it's just a reminder to the populations and to the governments, we're here, we're going to continue to do this, and we're going to use your democratic principles and your defensive-based alliance in a way that we know you are going to have a harder time to... In which case, a strong and direct message, we see you and we take notice, like the one being put forward by Poland at its frontiers with Russia, might just be part of the deterrence needed to dissuade the adversary. For TVP World, Zuzanna Jurek. As many as seven planes on routes across Europe received bomb threats while airborne on Tuesday with at least one force to make an emergency landing. An additional bomb threat was reported on an Israel-bound cruise ship in Greek territorial waters. Authorities have not yet revealed the perpetrators behind the incidents and have confirmed the threats as false alarms. This footage shows the flight path of a Boeing 737 MAX traveling from London to Warsaw's Chopin Airport. Carrying 181 people, the plane was two hours into its flight when its passengers heard of the possible threat. Following the alarm, the plane was diverted to Warsaw Modlin Airport, touching down at around 10 am, with passengers leaving the airport just over two hours later. Ryanair flights to Murcia, Rome and Sofia, as well as a Scandinavian Airlines flight to Warsaw also received alerts. Tuesday's incidents follow a similar case on Monday, raising the total number of bomb threats to European flights to unprecedented levels. Warsaw saw another chapter in the tug-of-war over Poland's top court. The Polish president and the country's opposition contest the changes to the constitutional tribunal introduced last Friday, but the court convened on Tuesday nonetheless. Paweł Trzaskowski has the latest on the political crisis in Poland. Crowds gather in front of Poland's Constitutional Tribunal as it assembled for the first time after Friday's suspension of its Chief Justice. The Tribunal decided there are enough members needed for the valid and effective adoption of resolutions. Stwierdzam. I confirm that there is a quorum which allows for the processing of the resolution regarding the Tribunal's budget for 2027. But the current shape of the Tribunal is still contested by the government's right-wing opposition, including President Karol Nawrocki. I shall exercise all the prerogatives at my disposal, as well as the legitimacy and mandate granted to me by the public to halt this attempt to subvert the constitutional order of the Republic of Poland. Therefore, a conflict over Poland's top judiciary that reached peak emotions last week continues. Kim Seung-jong. On Friday, the Constitutional Tribunal's longest-serving judge, On. Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, ordered the suspension of its Chief Justice, Bogdan Święczkowski, citing what she described as a state of constitutional necessity. For many years, the Constitutional Tribunal has been virtually non-functional, and recently this lack of functionality has constituted a flagrant violation of the foundations of the rule of law. This non-functioning is exemplified by over 1,000 cases that are still pending, but the move was strongly opposed by Poland's right, including the president, who turned his presidential plane around mid-flight on his way to Senegal to appear in front of the tribunal late at night and then storm his way through into the court building. You are not judges of the Constitutional Tribunal and you are occupying this building illegally. The suspended chief justice of the tribunal said he will not respect the decisions taken by Korwin-Piotrowska. Any decisions taken by Mrs. Piotrkowska and by these usurpers at their social gathering will not be binding on the president, the judges of the tribunal or on you, the citizens of the Republic of Poland. Thank you very much. And some from the opposition called the latest events a coup d'etat. The issues of the Constitutional Tribunal go back to 2015. I remember it. This is a. Complicated problem and the charges of a coup. Indeed, these events are part of a decade-long tug-of-war over Poland's top court between Polish Prime Minister Tusk and his political opponents, led by Law and Justice leader Jarosław Kaczyński. But at the heart of the current crisis is the status of five judges elected by the current parliamentary majority. President Nawrocki refused to administer their oaths, so they took them in parliament instead. Court President Świętkowski, however, refused to recognize and allow them to take part in the tribunal's work. With the government recognizing the new justices, however, there is little sign of compromise. But if there is a ray of hope, it may come from another institution, the National Bank of Poland. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Donald Tusk countersigned the nominations of four new members of the bank's management board both the government and the opposition could agree on. In contrast with the deadlock in the Constitutional Tribunal, it is a rare sign that compromise in Poland over key institutions is possible. Paweł Trzaskowski, TVP World. And now to talk about one of our main topics of the day, the midterm elections in the U.S. and the potential consequences for Poland and NATO. We're joined by Łukasz Pawłowski, co-host of the American podcast and deputy director of the Strategy Department at the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Good evening. Good evening. So, first of all, what do the latest polls say? Oh, forget the polls. What's your guttural feeling? Who'll win? You can't really tell. You can only rely on the polls. And the polls say that the Democrats are in there for a big night, probably. Obviously, there are a lot of toss-up states which can go both ways. But the latest poll by New York Times suggested that all those... Closed states are going to go Democrat's way, if they are not mistaken, if they are not undervaluing the turnout on the Republican side, that is going to be a very hard night for the Republicans, primarily because a lot of these states, I'm talking here about the Senate race, a lot of these states went very heavily for Donald Trump only two years ago. I see. We're talking about these latest polls, but I'm wondering whether there was something that could have changed the minds of voters in the last two or three days. Was it maybe Donald Trump's speech? And was it to his favor? Or maybe the incident of the bombing of an island in Iran? I mean, the Iran war was definitely one of the top issues on the voters' agenda, not because they are so much concerned about the state of Iran or even the possible nuclear weapons, but because of the consequences it has for the American economy and the rising prices, especially gas prices. So that's one thing. There were, you know, a couple of incidents or... Maybe small political scandals when a candidate, former candidate for the US Senate from the Democratic Party, who lost in the primary in Michigan, decided to support the Republican. I don't think that's going to change a lot of voters' minds. Was there justification for such a move? That's a good question, but I didn't get it from the interview she gave to CNN. So it was quite surprising because it was done virtually on the eve of the elections. And before that, she claimed repeatedly that she would support the Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed. Who, if he wins, will be the first Muslim senator in the United States? So that was a difficult one, and obviously there was a string of appearances by Donald Trump in battleground states. And when you look at which states are battleground states in the battle for the Senate, It's already striking that, as I said, these are the states that went very heavily for Trump, where he won by double digits, such as Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, even North Carolina. China. China. So that's striking. China. China. China. And when you follow the money, you also see that Republicans are investing heavily, for example, in the states like Texas, where they should win quite easily. The rallies and the states you're talking about, they all had some similar feature. It was Donald Trump telling Republican voters, imagine that I'm on the ballot, right? Now, is this a... Sensible tactic, given his public support at the moment. Yeah, it's not too high, but you always say about Donald Trump that in terms of voter support, it's a high floor and low ceiling. So that means that there is a group of voters that will always turn up for Donald Trump. It's not the majority, but it's disciplined, and they are there for him. And low ceiling means that there are quite few voters that he can convince, few additional voters that he can convince. So his strategy is to rally the base and get them to turn out for him. That was the logic, I think, behind this call that you mentioned. But in many states and in many districts, Donald Trump is so unpopular that imagine him Being on the ballot may actually have the opposite effect. And you can see that all over the states, in the districts which, again, voted very heavily for Trump and where people, Republicans, or independents-leaning Republicans, are either changing their votes to Democrats or simply are unwilling to go and vote. And a low turnout can heavily impact the results for the Republicans. And you can also see that... The controversy surrounding Donald Trump and, you know, an easy way to answer whether he's going to help or maybe hinder the Republican efforts are in the fact that many, many candidates did not mention his name in their ads. That tells you something. Right, now let's discuss the three potential scenarios. So first of all, What happens if Democrats take both chambers of the Parliament? It depends. It depends what do you mean by take. I think if they take it by 51-49, the Senate, I think they're going to take the House of Representatives. That's probably a done deal. I mean, most of the polls indicate that they will have a majority. In the Senate, if they have a majority 51 to 49, I think we will see a lot of backroom politics and backroom deals trying to get one Democrat to cross the party lines and make it even. In that case, as we know, the vice president casts the deciding vote. So I think that Republicans will invest heavily in trying to find this one weak link in this democratic chain and maybe get one senator to at least turn independent. and caucus with the Republicans. But you're certain it's done for the Republicans at the House of Representatives? Yes, I mean... You can't be certain of anything, but prediction models point to 90-95% of the chances that the Democrats will take the House of Representatives. So it is highly likely. In the Senate, less so, but still it's likely that the Democrats will control the upper chamber after the elections. But they may not have enough of an advantage to actually benefit from it. So, that's one scenario, and if they have a big enough advantage in the Senate, I think the next very difficult question for the Democrats is, are you going to get rid of filibuster? That means the rule which forces the Senate to have at least 60 votes in favor of ending a debate. Let me be more precise in my question, what does it mean for Poland? How for Poland I think that if Donald Trump loses, usually that's the case with the second-term presidents without majority in Congress, that they focus on the issues that they have the most power in. And foreign policy is one of these domains. I think you'll see Donald Trump more active in foreign policy. Whether that's going to be beneficial for Poland or not, that's a difficult question. Because if he goes, leans more heavily on trying to find a peace deal with Russia, that does not include the Ukrainian perspective sufficiently. Then, obviously, we have a problem, but if he manages... And in the context of this looming posture review that we will learn more about... A lot indicates that the president will try to lower the number of American soldiers in Europe because he has set his priorities elsewhere. The question is where these soldiers are going to stay and whether they are going to be moved Forward to the east where the danger is. I see. It's only two years after Donald Trump returned to office, and I'm wondering what does it mean for the leadership of the Republican Party if they lose, and also what would it mean for Democrats if they fail to take Senate? Right. So for Republicans, usually it's the case when you have a second-term president and he loses majority in the last two years of his presidency, the moment after the midterm elections, you start the campaign for the presidential elections. So you will see more and more openly people looking for new candidates for the Republicans. And you will see these most ambitious politics trying to somehow... Distance maybe themselves from the from Trump and differentiate themselves from the administration to present their case to the voters in terms of Democrats I think they are ...up for a generational change anyway, and you see this in the elections, you have a lot of, quite a few young and very promising candidates, and I'm pretty sure that if they succeed, these candidates, if they succeed in their races to the Senate, you can have maybe... Again, a situation like with Barack Obama, who only spent two years in the Senate and afterwards he became the president. And lastly, very briefly, please, how do you think the Polish, the Ukrainian and also the Baltic diaspora in the US will vote this time? Usually they go more heavily towards the Republicans, and I see no reason why this... would change this time, maybe they just won't go. They won't show up for the Republicans. But if they go, most of them decide to support the Republican Party, though I think that also is changing with the generational change. Łukasz Pawłowski, co-host of the American podcast and deputy director of the strategy department at the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was our guest this evening. Thank you so much. It was a pleasure. And thank you for watching and stay with us for more interviews and news here on TVP World.