Three M Flares & CMEs Inbound! Geomagnetic Storm Happening Now!

James Kaufman will do the report today. Ladies and gentlemen, we have had three M-class solar flares directly earth-facing. We might be in for more today. We're going to start out with our KP index, which is really a combination of solar wind and plasma that may be hitting earth. And this is four different areas here in the United States. And well, we have solar winds Right at 700 kilometers per second, already hitting our satellites. They're about 45 minutes away at 700 kilometers per second. That's about what I guessed. It's probably going to go stronger than that. I believe that we're going to be in a G1 geomagnetic storm here within the hour. Remember, the next shoe drops, which should be right at 4 p.m. Central. When that shoe drops, I think that will be a G1 geomagnetic storm, but that is questionable and we'll talk about why. Right now, all seems calm. The Boulder KP index is showing a geomagnetic disturbance. The Fredericksburg and Estimated Planetary Index are very quiet. And we've seen a geomagnetic disturbance, a G1 storm on the elevated college KP index, the most sensitive of all. Regularly, NOAA and NASA only use the estimated Planetary KP Index, it's been highly upgraded. Over to the GOES X-Ray Flux, we have the stronger M-Flare that wasn't quite Earth-facing, but might have an Earth component to it, it does strike it should be tomorrow. Today, we've had three M flares already today. We just had the strongest, a 1.99, might as well call it an M2 flare, and two other smaller M flares earlier in the day, one around 1330, the other around 1744, I believe, and we'll get some good times on everything in just a moment. But three M flares, these will all be inbound, and there was a coronal mass ejection, or several coronal mass ejections released, and they were Halo ejections, which means that the Earth will be hit. Those will be in within three to four days, something like that. All right, two days ago, that was an M of 3.6. If it does strike Earth, or has a glancing blow. had an Earth component. It will probably hit tomorrow. Strongest we've seen today is the M1.99. Everything's coming out of that same sunspot, AR4566, although I'm going to argue with that as well when we get to take a visual look. Looks like one of the other sunspots at least joins in with a sympathetic flare, although it looks like a bigger flare than what comes from 4566. We had a... M1.2 it peaked at 1243. We had an M1.4 it peaked at 1717 and this latest M1.99 peaked at 18 something and it hasn't even well been recorded here yet. It is recorded up here on top but It hasn't been assigned a sunspot group, although we know where it came from. We can visually see it popping off from 4566. Today we have a 10% chance of having an X-class solar flare, only because of this delta-class sunspot, the most complex sunspot we know of, and 35% chance of having an M-class solar flare. and a 95% chance of having a C-class solar flare. I think we're basically back to a C-baseline with a C2.08 and I haven't seen a B in a couple of days. All right, you can see it's staying above that C-baseline and this is the M1.99. We'll call it The M2, you can see it, I think it hit 1844. 1843, 1844, something like that. I saw that on the X-ray D-region Absorption Prediction Center, which we'll take a look at in just a moment. All these flares popped off right over the U.S. So we all got our dose of X-ray radiation for sure. Over to HMI Intensigram. We have a total of six Earth-facing sunspots, several others coming around the limb. The only big bad one we see right here is this delta class sunspot that pretty much makes up all the activity on our solar disk today. This one doesn't look too bad either, but it has a one percent chance of an M flare and a one percent chance of an X flare. So all simple and green and they would be orange if they were beta gamma, but this is Beta Delta Gamma, a Delta-class sunspot. So, this is the culprit for every flare we've seen today. So, like I said, we have less than 45, probably close to 30 minutes before the solar winds that were recorded on our Solar 1 and Ace satellites at orbit at Lagrange Point 1, 1 million miles above Earth. Well, they caught the solar winds, and they're inbound. Prepare for a geomagnetic storm. I would guess only a G1 because our shields are oriented to the north. This is the coronal hole that's causing these high-speed solar winds. They're inbound. This is the delta class sunspot group and I'm about to show you that this sunspot here either had a sympathetic flare or was responsible for the second flare and they've assigned it incorrectly. I'll let you all decide. I just wanted to show you at a different angstrom level to show us the sunspots coming around the limb here that haven't been named but will be in play very shortly and we can see the sunspots a lot easier with this view. All right so we're looking at this area right here the solar flares and I'm going to argue that the second solar flare actually might come from this sunspot here. So let's take a look. We know the times. We'll get to the first one. And you can see it pop out right there. Right on time. Very easy to tell. And that was a big flare. That's when the coronal mass ejection first started. It's been ongoing. And let's see. That's the time of the second flare. And I'm pointing over here now. They're saying it originated from 4566. But Although I do see some activity on 4566, it looks like at least a sympathetic flare occurred over on the other sunspot, and it looks like a bigger incident. I don't see a filament that looped from one to the other, could be missing from this angle, but you can clearly see that we at least had a sympathetic solar flare out of this sunspot group It had a 1% chance of flaring, right? And for the last one, we're moving to 1841, and that's going to be right in, and look, 1715, there it is right there. And see, it does come from the sunspot that is our problem. That would be 4566, and it's quite clear that it comes from there. That's the biggest flare of the day. The M2 or M1.99, all three of them, well, created coronal mass ejections. They're all halo ejections and they're all inbound. I expect to see them in about 72 hours. And here is the CME that started just after the first M flare. You can see it actually hits the LASCO camera here. If you remember, it was at 12 something. It doesn't hit the LASCO camera until 1542, and you can visually see the plasma. And then at the 17 mark, the plasma continues, and we really can't go far enough to see the very last flare on LASCO, but it, too, created a coronal mass ejection, so we could have several hours of a geomagnetic storm here in about three days. All right. We'll show you the one, we'll show you the, let's see, two, really over South America, not North America, two, three, it's going to be four because two was a C-flare, a strong C-flare, and that is the last one. So nothing really over North America, mostly over South America and Central America. And this right here was a strong C-flare that we really haven't talked about. But you can put it in play as well. It came from the same Sunspot group. So there's the 1244 right there, mostly over the Atlantic, Africa, and Brazil. And that's the C-flare 1600 right there, mostly over South America and the Pacific. That's the M-Flare, also over South America, Central America, and the Pacific. And this is the very latest and strongest one that might have reached Texas, but mostly over the Pacific and Central America. So those are your X-ray fluxes on the D region of our atmosphere, which is the lowest region or the closest region to the surface of our planet. I thought I'd include this. They're a little late to the show. This just flew by Earth. At less than 20,000 miles out, which is a super close shave, and they didn't see it until after it flew by. This is 2026 VL5. The good news about this is, I guess, well, it could have hit us. Everyone saw something come down in China last night. This could have been it right here. This was not a very large rock at all. Under 10 feet in diameter, they think, but of course they didn't see it. They did name it today, but it had already passed by the time they offered up the information from JPL. Therefore, I'm not going to cover it. They passed at, well, about 2 a.m., I think, about 2 a.m. this morning. So today and tomorrow, we'll only be dealing with solar winds until perhaps the next day when we may or may not get hit by That first M3.6 flare and the following day when we may or may not get hit by one of these three CMEs that just popped off the sun. So we're dealing with solar winds from the coronal hole. They're actually up to about 688 kilometers per second. This is just a little late to the game here. And you can see that they're brushing up on the 700 here. This is ACE Real-Time Space Weather, one of our two satellites, the older of the two. Temperatures are increasing steadily. Wind speeds are right at 700 kilometers per second. I do expect to get a G1, geomagnetic storm. I don't think it's going to be a G2 because our shields are northerly oriented. Heck, it might be a disturbance because they're so northerly oriented. And they're on and off as far as our shields. If they're below the dotted line, they're down. If they're above the dotted line, they're up. And they're up and down, up and down, up and down constantly. A lot of up for the day, but this is the time that matters here as we're being impacted by the solar winds. All right, so this is... Solar 1, our new satellite, up next to ACE at the L1, over a million miles above Earth. It usually takes about 50 to 70 minutes for the weather to reach us. But I would think that since it's been, well, about an hour since we hit 688, it's right in here somewhere. If I can find that. 683 close enough. We didn't quite make it. 700 kilometers a second yet, but we are building our way up and you can see temperatures are extremely elevated here and this is the next shoe to drop right here. It's going to be the one central to four central block and then the Following block will be the last one for today, UTC time. The 4 to 7 p.m. block, and then we start the day over according to, well, Noah and NASA's time. You can see that the shields are oriented up and blue here most all of the day, and here we see the shields coming down as this wind hits, which is not great, but they are oriented north, so that's going to help us out here. Plasma's way down in the fives, never even coming close to a geomagnetic storm. This would be the peak of the day, seven centimeters cubed. So we'll take a look at the planets. All right, today, November 7th, the second day of our sixth to the ninth watch period that we talked about weeks ago. And we always, well, talk about... the moon lining up between earth and the sun and this time we don't only have the moon we have venus and mercury between us and the sun and we have a geomagnet connection to both of those along with three gas giants behind us uranus saturn and neptune and micro planet Iris way out here so this should be Trouble. And we are seeing an uptick in both solar activity. I think we'll also see a larger earthquake than a 6.1, 6.2 that we saw on the first day of our watch period yesterday in Japan. I still have no idea what happened in the Bahamas yesterday. Never seen a signature that long and, well, anything that looks anything like that. We'll move forward here a day into the 9th, and well, all these days look like an uptick to me, so we'll see what happens. If we've already seen that uptick, it's just getting worse. That said, guys, three M-Flares today. We're going to be in a geomagnetic storm within about 20 to 30 minutes, and please give us a thumbs up. Please don't forget, super important. I want to say, please share if you can, and God bless you all.