Two Solar Flares And A CME Inbound February 14th 2025!

James Kaufman, World News Report, today. Today is February 14th, 2025. God bless you and yours, no matter where you are in the world. Please subscribe, give us a thumbs up, ring that bell for critical future updates. Ladies and gentlemen, I just did a video about the solar storm or geomagnetic storm that's hitting Earth from the backside. And when I got over to our GOES X-ray flux, I noticed this and the fact that we're losing our C-baseline. Look at this. Our GOES-16 and GOES-18 are just in the toilet, i.e. we have a force from the opposite side of the sun from Earth. pushing down on us. Now with that said, we've had two M-class solar flares today, both M1.2s. They're not quite sure about the first M-flare. It might have been a filament eruption. It has not been assigned to a sunspot group. Looks like it peaked right before 3 UTC time. And then we have our second M-class solar flare here. Looks like it peaked right after 10 UTC time. There's also an M1.2 solar flare that came from sunspot region AR3990. With that said, these are the first two M flares we've had since. And we'll take a quick look here. Well, we had one back here on the 11th and we had one way back on the 8th. So since those two M flares, we hadn't seen any activity. Today we've seen two M flares and this is very very strange. You can see it also happened here. All right heading over to spaceweatherlive.com we see that we've had our two M1.2 flares here. First one peaked at about 228 and it was not assigned to a sunspot group. Could have been generated from a filament eruption. We're still waiting on information about that solar flare. Then we do have an M1.2 that peaked right after 10 UTC time, which is 3.06 in the morning central time here in the U.S., and that was generated by one of the Beta Gamma sunspots, AR3990. You can see that 1.2 flare, one of them, is the biggest that we've seen in 72 hours and of course the biggest today. Currently, we have a only 5% chance of having an X-class solar flare, a 40% chance of having an M-class solar flare, although that ship has sailed, and we're almost losing our sea baseline, almost like something's pushing from the other side or backside of our planet, but we're hanging in there with a C-1.09 baseline solar flare. Over to HMI Intensigram. Looks like we have a total of nine earth-facing sunspots on our solar disk, got two of them, or beta gamma, semi-complex here and here, 3990 and 3992. The rest of all the sunspot groups are actually simple sunspot groups. We should see any activities coming from 3990 or 3992, although, hey, any of these Have the possibility of generating a strong X-Flare. All right, over to go solar ultraviolet imager 195 angstroms. Well, we did have a flare a few days ago that could have created a We've created a chromase ejection that impacted Earth today, although we didn't get hit by any plasma. Plasma never went over five centimeters cubed so we sure didn't get hit by coronal mass ejection. I was thinking well then maybe the solar winds were super fast which brought us into a geomagnetic storm because our shields are in an up position currently. Well this coronal hole didn't really work out for us. We couldn't really find any solar winds over 580 kilometers per second. And most of the solar winds, or let's call them cosmic winds, or space winds, appear to be coming from the back side of our planet and hitting the nighttime side of Earth, which is opposite of the sun's direction. We saw that on one of the models that I showed earlier, or two of them at least. So, the fastest solar winds are at 580, the heaviest plasma is at 5 cm3, and we're in geomagnetic storms. Even the estimated planetary index says that we've been in a geomagnetic storm for at least six hours, along with an additional six hours of geomagnetic disturbance. It's hard to swallow. And I did want to make sure, but it looks like I am correct here. Six hours of a geomagnetic storm today and six hours of a geomagnetic disturbance. And that's the estimated planetary index, the one upgraded by NOAA and NASA, the one they exclusively use now. So what caused it? Well, it looks like some secondary source of energy. So over to NASA's. Is it good or spiral? We see that they've actually modeled one of the M flares today and it looks like it has a chance of a glancing blow to Earth here. Earth being the yellow dot right here and this being the M flare from earlier today. One of the two M flares from earlier today, maybe both of them. But this has been modeled by NASA, it looks like if there is an impact it would be on about the 17th, with this longer lasting plasma coming from here on the 21st, 22nd. Ridiculous, today's the 14th, that would be eight days away. I'm talking about this big spiral plasma hitting Earth, not this coronal mass ejection here. So with that said, Two M1.2 solar flares, it looked like one of them at least lifted a chromis ejection, which may have a very good chance of hitting Earth, at least with a glancing blow. And today's storm could have been caused by this solar flare here. It just doesn't appear to be so. I'm seeing no solar winds that would be strong enough to put us in geomagnetic storm territory. We saw on both ACE and Discover nothing over 580 kilometers per second. And we saw no plasma over 5 centimeters cubed. And plasma is a coronal mass ejection from a solar flare. Solar winds are just that, solar winds. And they're released from a... Crawl a hole where the canopy of the sun is missing the dark spots on some of our models. That said, God bless each and every one of you guys. Share, subscribe, and always remember, anything's possible, bizarro world.