A former senior Israeli intelligence official says Israel could launch an unconventional operation against Iran’s military leadership similar to its 2024 attacks on Hezbollah communications devices if fighting resumes after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Israel could target four senior Iranian military and security officials through a coordinated surprise operation if hostilities with Tehran resume following the U.S. midterm elections, according to a former senior Mossad official who says the Islamic Republic’s military commanders exercise greater authority than its civilian leadership.
Oded Ailam, a former deputy head of global operations for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, told The New York Post in an Oct. 31 report that Israel could employ unconventional tactics resembling its September 2024 operation against Hezbollah, when thousands of explosive-rigged communications devices detonated across Lebanon and Syria.
The possibility of renewed military action comes as the United States increases its naval presence in the Middle East and President Donald Trump signals that further developments in the conflict could follow Tuesday’s elections. No official Israeli announcement has confirmed plans for an operation targeting the four Iranian officials.
Ailam said Israeli intelligence agencies have spent years developing capabilities intended to surprise adversaries and disrupt their command structures.
“This is the bread and butter of Israeli strategy, is surprise twists and turns, unexpected moves and I’m absolutely certain that Israel has cards in the sleeve that will be used,” Ailam said.
According to Ailam, Iran’s government is effectively controlled by a four-member military leadership rather than its publicly recognized political officials. He identified Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi, Basij forces commander Hossein Taeb, Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei as the country’s principal centers of military and political power.
Ailam contended that President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei have limited authority over the decisions driving Iran’s confrontation with Washington and Israel.
Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the position of supreme leader following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although the office formally carries substantial constitutional authority, Ailam argued that senior military commanders control the government’s most consequential security decisions.
“The president and foreign minister can’t make decisions. [The military junta] hides behind Mojtaba, but he’s not in charge; he’s a complete puppet,” Ailam said.
His characterization of Iran’s leadership reflects his assessment of the country’s internal power structure and has not been independently established. Iran’s government formally operates through a combination of elected institutions, religious authorities and military organizations, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Ailam identified the four commanders as potential targets should fighting resume, citing their influence over the military establishment and opposition to diplomatic compromises with the United States.
He also accused the commanders of obstructing negotiations intended to resolve the conflict. According to Ailam, Iran’s military leadership believes continued restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will increase economic and political pressure on Washington, eventually forcing Trump to accept Tehran’s demands.
The strategic waterway connects the Persian Gulf with international shipping routes and is a major corridor for global oil and natural gas transportation. Disruptions to commercial traffic through the strait have contributed to international concerns about energy supplies and the broader economic consequences of the conflict.
Ailam said disagreements between Iran’s military and civilian officials have complicated negotiations, including disputes over commitments involving the Strait of Hormuz. He described the internal divisions as an obstacle to reaching an agreement with Washington.
The former intelligence official suggested that a renewed Israeli campaign could focus on eliminating influential commanders rather than relying exclusively on conventional strikes against military installations.
“Israel will use its imagination, its intelligence and the ability of the Israelis to surprise and turn the table in ways you can not anticipate,” he said.
His comments recalled Israel’s Sept. 17-18, 2024, operation against Hezbollah, during which pagers and handheld radios containing concealed explosives detonated across Lebanon and parts of Syria.
The devices had been distributed to Hezbollah personnel before the coordinated explosions. Dozens of people were killed and thousands were injured, including Hezbollah members and civilians, in an operation that disrupted the Iran-backed organization’s communications and exposed vulnerabilities in its supply chain.
The attacks demonstrated Israel’s ability to conduct complex intelligence operations against adversaries beyond traditional military engagements. Their use of civilian-style communications equipment also raised international concerns about the risks to bystanders and compliance with the laws of armed conflict.
Ailam suggested that the psychological consequences of a comparable operation against Iranian commanders could extend beyond the immediate loss of senior personnel, creating uncertainty within the country’s military leadership.
The possibility of additional strikes has gained attention amid a reported American military buildup. The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier has been heading toward the Middle East to join two existing carrier strike groups involving the USS George Washington and USS George H.W. Bush.
The deployment comes as U.S. and Israeli officials consider military options following months of intermittent fighting and negotiations with Tehran.
According to reporting by The Jerusalem Post on Oct. 22, U.S. and Israeli military planners have examined options for a short, intensive campaign after the American midterm elections, potentially involving attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and missile and drone capabilities.
Trump has also indicated that the confrontation could approach a conclusion following the elections, although he has not publicly outlined the military or diplomatic measures that would produce that outcome.
Speaking to Kansas City radio station KCMO on Oct. 30, Trump said the conflict was “going to get wrapped up soon.”
The president did not specify whether his remarks referred to renewed military strikes, negotiations or another development.
Retired U.S. Gen. Jack Keane has advocated targeting Iran’s senior leadership alongside its nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and ballistic missile and drone production capabilities. Such an approach would represent a broader military campaign than an operation directed exclusively at individual commanders.
Other former military officials and regional analysts have warned that renewed U.S. or Israeli strikes could produce significant Iranian retaliation, including attacks on energy infrastructure in neighboring Gulf countries and potentially Israel.
Former Israeli Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror has said an Iranian attack on Gulf energy facilities could prompt Israel to target Iran’s own energy infrastructure. He has nevertheless identified Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities as Israel’s principal military priorities in any renewed conflict.
Meanwhile, the prospect of additional military action has generated disagreement in Washington. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., has warned that proposed operations could prolong the conflict and produce a wider regional confrontation, while Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., has suggested that major developments could follow shortly after the midterm elections.
The comments from Ailam and other former officials underscore the range of options being publicly discussed as Washington and Jerusalem evaluate their next steps toward Iran. However, whether Israel will pursue an intelligence operation resembling the 2024 Hezbollah attacks remains unconfirmed, and no timetable or operational details have been publicly established.
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