Caribbean disturbance and severe weather.

Tonight on my radar, tracking the tropics. Not one but two new areas to watch, both of which have a moderate chance of becoming named storms. One of them could impact the Caribbean. Cruise lines beware. We'll break down the forecast. Severe weather with the tornado risk here in the lower 48. Parts of the Texas Gulf Coast in line for dangerous storms. We'll time it out and tell you who's at risk. And a taste of winter with snow coming down in the Rockies. We'll have your winter weather And hi gang, on my radar, meteorologist Matthew Pucci at Roy's house in Tampa, Florida. Roy was my next door neighbor growing up. He lived next door for about, gosh, 20-ish years until he moved down here. He's 73 now. Nicest person in the whole world, so we came down to visit him. Anyway, you know, the last time I was in Florida was here for the hurricane and unfortunately we've got to talk tropics again. Let's dive right into what's going on with hurricane season because we have not one but two new systems to watch. It's been a couple weeks since the dissipation of which didn't do too much other than fester over the Bay of Campeche for days. Since then, we've been quiet and many folks thought that hurricane season was over. They thought wrong. In an average year though, we tend to see one or two more storms after October 27th. In fact, about 7% of a season's average cyclone activity happens beyond October 27th. Not a ton, but still something to be mindful of. During the infamous hurricane season of 2020, during which 30 named storms formed, we had three storms form after today's date. Among them were Ada, Theta, and Iota. Remember, by then we had so many storms we had to dip into the Greek alphabet. Ada was a Category 4 hurricane that hit coastal Nicaragua before reforming as a tropical storm over the northwestern Gulf and then impacting Florida with some wind and rain. Then, barely two weeks later, another Category 4 hurricane called Iota hit the same exact spot. The landfall locations were within 10 miles of one another. Coastal Nicaragua was devastated, but fortunately it was a highly rural area. There was also Theta, which was just a lonely swirl that roamed around the eastern tropical Atlantic looking for somebody to give it love or paid attention. We've all been there, Theta. So how is this season stacked up? Well, for the first time in 25 years since 1997, August passed without a single named storm, but we have caught up since. 11 named storms have spun up this season, including five hurricanes. Among them was Hurricane Ian, a Category 4 that slammed southwest Florida with winds to 140 mph plus on September 28th. It caused $60 billion in damages and lay siege to Fort Myers. Aaron Jayjack and I stood inside its eye. There was also Fiona, which slammed Atlantic Canada as a post-tropical storm at record strength. Previously, it had buzzed over the open ocean west of Bermuda as a Category 4. Those two storms contributed half this season's ACE, or Accumulated Cyclone Energy. That's a metric of how much heat energy storms extract from the ocean and convert into damaging winds. It's proportional to storm intensity and duration. So far, we're at about three quarters of where we should be in an average season at this point in the year. Obviously, it defies early season predictions of an above average season, but meteorology isn't always an exact science. The black line is average. The blue line is where we are right now. So what's going on now? Well, we have two systems to track. The first one in the southwest Atlantic northeast of Hispaniola. You can see this big strip of cloud cover from Cuba all the way to Bermuda and Newfoundland. That's our broad, diffuse zone of low pressure tied up along a bit of a front. Over the coming days, I think some of that low pressure will consolidate into a more cohesive circulation. Models show we begin to see the emergence of a more defined low pressure center with winds rotating around it. Whether or not it actually becomes a tropical depression or named storm remains to be seen. The National Hurricane Center pegs its odds at about 40%. I think this loop is interesting because it does simulate a kink forming along this trough or this low pressure axis. That said, I don't foresee the development of a hurricane. I think upper level winds are simply too strong and will prevent this thing from really getting the vertical development it needs to actually thrive. Eventually, it'll probably weaken again towards the first few days of next week and then be scooped out east. It might brush Bermuda but otherwise shouldn't threaten land. Just something to annoy Nemo and Dory. Meanwhile, a potentially more concerning one in the southeastern Caribbean. I think if you're planning a trip, if you're a cruise line, you'll really want to watch this one. So here's the deal. There's nothing yet but the seed will soon be planted. Look at these thunderstorms near the Venezuela-Guiana border southeast of Trinidad and Tobago. Over the coming days, they'll skirt along the coast of Venezuela before emerging over the southeast Caribbean. When that happens, they could quickly clump together and sprout a nascent storm. Here's a model simulation of that vorticity or spin. This will likely happen sometime in the next couple of days. Obviously, there's a lot of wild cards with this, but here's a thing. At this time of year, an unperturbed Caribbean is like a powder keg. Look at oceanic heat content. This shows how much energy a hurricane can extract from warm seawaters. It's basically maxed out in the Caribbean, especially the western Caribbean. My other concern is weak upper level winds. Because they're weak, that means there's nothing to really perturb a storm and inhibit its formation. I also want to focus on this region of clockwise winds at high altitudes in the eastern Caribbean. This little clockwise eddy? That's concerning. So whenever we have clockwise winds, that enhances storm outflow or exhaust aloft. The more air we suck away from a storm, kind of vacuum away at the upper levels, the more that can rise in from below, and that's warm moist air in contact with the sea surface, that fuels storm intensification. All told, we don't know where this thing will go, assuming it even forms at all. But broadly, it would likely move west, maybe due west, maybe a little more northwest. Who knows? Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America should all be closely watching. Also, two other weather stories to mention. We gotta talk severe weather too, unfortunately. Here's the situation with severe weather in Texas. You see this low pressure center moving through the four corners. It's kicking up plenty of moisture ahead of it. That's associated with a pocket of cold air, low pressure, and spin aloft. We call that a short wave. That short wave is pushing east. On Friday, it swings over Texas. Ahead of it, we have warm southerly winds at the surface. That's talking warm, humid air north and setting the stage for storms along an approaching cold front. We've got just a little bit of juice spreading over Texas. That's just enough though. Winds aloft with the short wave, meanwhile, are strong. That will brew wind shear, or a change of wind speed and or direction with height. So any thunderstorm that goes up will feel those changing winds and start to rotate. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has drawn an area where a couple tornadoes are possible on Friday. We're talking Victoria, Texas, Lake Jackson, Eglinton, Beeville, and Bay City too. The threat will exist all day long and into the night. Pay attention to those kidney bean-shaped cells ahead of the main swirl of rain and storminess. Those kidney beans represent rotation. Then the storm pushes east. On Saturday, a marginal risk of severe weather and an isolated spin-up will translate east. It'll include southern Mississippi and the Delta, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Mobile, Jackson, Matartee, Louisiana. All you guys, you're in line. And lastly, a little dose of winter to remind you that winter is in fact coming, as I pose here in Florida with a palm tree. Don't worry, I'm gonna pay for it. I'm gonna go back to the northeast soon. That same bowling ball upper level low we talked about brought very chilly temperatures aloft over the Colorado Rockies. That was allowing some snow to come down west of Denver to start the day on Thursday. Winter weather advisories were issued for much of western Colorado with a winter storm warning for the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Totals of 6 to 14 inches were expected above 10,000 feet. In the meantime, I've discovered there are apparently no rules in Florida and you can go and get ice cream whenever you want, among other things. So I'm gonna go do that. Keep it in MyRadar on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, and of course right here in the MyRadar app. Bye, y'all. Follow MyRadar on social media. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube. Download MyRadar on iOS, Android, Amazon Alexa, Xbox, and Windows.