Tropical disturbance in the Gulf: Should we worry?

And we are also watching this tropical disturbance in the Gulf and a lot of questions about what that might look like what it might mean for us here in Florida. So joining us live now inside our streaming studio here we've got Fox 35 Storm Team meteorologist TJ Springer joining me and TJ this is one of those things that I know there had been a lot of questions about it and you know changing models things that kind of make you think maybe one thing and then indications of something else is still very much a fluid situation here with what you're watching. For sure yeah I mean there's still a fair amount of dust out there on the Gulf too Garrett that's been a big headline for us over the last you know couple weeks we've been talking about the dust and how that's kind of increased our severe chances at times but also try to limit our rain chances at times but at our new update from the National Hurricane Center just here before two o'clock we do know how a slight increase in chances here of this becoming something tropical in nature over the next two days and seven days respectively now a 10 percent chance of the next 48 hours and a 30 percent chance of development over the next week not huge chances but still something we'll have to watch either way what this means for us whether it be the Gulf Coast of Florida us in Central Florida it certainly means that higher likelihood of tropical downpours and right now Garrett we're already starting to see this area of low pressure at the surface develop it has the upper level component so as we head through the remainder of the afternoon and evening more likely we've already seen some showers and thunderstorms develop for us locally but definitely something that we're going to keep a really close eye on over the next few days and how this kind of evolves through the weekend and early next week. So the increased chance of development now in within the next seven days what does that mean how does that change your thoughts of what and how and when it brings impacts here to Florida? So where this is right now where we have this disturbance it is over the warmth in the Gulf so it really is going to be how long can it stay over the warmth in the Gulf because the fuel is certainly there but the dust and some of that shear will be what is counteracting this so depending on if it can kind of organize further if and become a little more organized I think that will be the main question but at least at least the way it looks right now we're seeing this area of low pressure develop at the surface as it sits over the warmth in the Gulf at least in the in the just a storm system itself you know. And so in the meantime here are I know the the thought is for a pretty wet weekend definitely around our area what are we looking at can you kind of take us through some of the different areas and what we can expect to see when it comes to this tropical rain this tropical moisture kind of hitting us? For sure yeah I mean we're already seeing out there right now it's almost getting kind of you can see all this swirling motion now with this Garrett because we didn't really have that now we do and you can kind of see like an outer rain band almost that's lifting up across you know the Tampa Bay metro now the I should say the Tampa metro and a little closer to us here in Orlando the bulk of the moisture still in the Gulf and that's where at least right now it looks like at current time that's where a lot of it will be but the question that we're going to try to fine-tune over the next few days is how close does it get to the Gulf Coast because that will also change on who sees some of that heavier rain but at least for the for right now it does not look like the weekend will be a washout we're keeping tabs on some stronger storms that are kind of working around this greater circulation in the Gulf we're seeing these across some of Lake County as well as Orange County could have some wind gusts up around 40 miles per hour certainly a lot of lightning with as you can see in the last 15 minutes here around 424 strikes certainly torrential rain a couple of these storms this afternoon could turn severe we do have this low end risk it's a level one out of five risk for a couple severe storms but it's still a possibility with gusty wind still being a big concern now the the setup over the weekend you can see essentially across the peninsula as a whole we will see storms you will see downpours and we'll have more moisture as a whole overhead and what that's going to do is lead to that potential for certainly heavy rain we'll have a lot of deep tropical moisture streaming over the state so it does mean tropical downpours and storms and with the instability during the afternoon it's looking like that's when we're going to have the likelihood more coverage of storms and the of the day you can kind of see what what unfolds here more numerous storms today really favoring the gulf coast heavy rain in any of those storms and then for our saturday likely starting dry a few showers and thunderstorms around during breakfast time possible and then through the afternoon we start to see more of those storms firing up really kind of past lunchtime and one or two of those may be on the strong to severe side and then sunday's essentially a wash rinse and repeat we kind of see these storms developing during the early afternoon past one two o'clock and they stick around as we head through our early sunday evening but i say that the kind of the plus of it all here is that i know people are vacationing people are here trying to get outdoors the days won't be washed out i think that's kind of standard for us in florida you know um i don't think it'll look all that out of the ordinary for us over the weekend um but depending on where this if this jogs a little farther east some of those heavier rains could extend closer to us in orlando but if it jogs a little farther west it's going to be more of the gulf coast that gets the lion's share of the the heavy rain and so you know with no washouts but you know as far as the days go but when you have one of these storms sitting over you it's going to be kind of what what we see normally in these tropical setups where it's those big drops a lot of rain going down pretty fast and then we might see the sun come out for a little while and then we see another band come through that so it's going to be kind of that the nature and i definitely i would say it's because we'll start to see a little more wind upstairs in the atmosphere um maybe a slightly quicker movement with some of these storms too like like we see if we're on the outer periphery of of a tropical system and those those rain totals it looks like you know like you said kind of really favoring the the gulf side you know the bay area that kind of thing that's the way it's looking yeah i'm thinking for us around orlando probably maybe an inch inch and a half and some isolated amounts higher than that's still possible uh closer to maybe a half inch or so the closer you get to the atlantic beaches if not on the gulf coast there could be isolated amounts up beyond say half a foot of rain so that obviously brings the flooding concerns that we'll certainly have to watch out for for our friends along the gulf coast now what about a potential track of that of the the tropical system here the the disturbance that that could develop and and what does that mean you know for for what you're seeing there so so we did see a bit of a change between our uh previous outlook and now it's kind of extended a little farther to the west so it's looking like this probably will start to get picked up by some of the upper level wind and start to make more of a a westerly a westerly job so that would be i mean that would start to take it away from us eventually which is good news and that's we've kind of seen this outlook now going up to places like new orleans um and more of the more of the gulf coast versus how it was almost like extending out more into the more into the atlantic so i think that that's a lot to watch as this as this ridge to our west attempts to kind of swing this back back farther into the farther into the gulf does that impact the potential strength of this thing at all so i mean if it were to to uh stay out in the water if it doesn't get torn apart by some of the shear or which it's still a possibility that could be something we'll have to monitor if if the shear doesn't tear it apart if it's able to thread the needle could it sit over there maybe organize a bit further um so that it might be more of a more of some of the south probably not actually the south problem but something to watch a lot closer for those in louisiana alabama and coastal mississippi uh versus us as it starts to lift a little farther to the northwest over the weekend in there in early next week all right so something still for us to you know really continue to watch then over the next few days definitely yeah i think we'll probably see you know some minor tweaks and changes as it does you know happen um from time to time um and thankfully to get our latest check-in still really little change with that that uh disturbance that's out in the eastern atlantic only a 10 chance of development still with that one over the next two to seven days so we'll watch that one too but still a lot of dust in this part of the the atlantic and uh hopefully we don't see anything come out of this one but we'll keep keep a close eye on that one too all right fox 35 storm team meteorologist tj springer we appreciate you joining us with our florida live forecast and uh giving us the latest on these tropical disturbances of course thanks for having me garrett