러-북 밀착에 다급해진 중국...김정은 치켜세우지만, 효과는 글쎄 [크로스로드]

Welcome to Crossroads. It appears that relations between the Chinese Communist Party and North Korea are running into some problems. Now, this started because Russia and North Korea had begun developing closer ties, and the Chinese Communist Party, oddly, seemed concerned about this. Now, they're worried this is going to impact their own interests. South China Morning Post said this. They said, China is willing to deepen cooperation and strategic communication with North Korea, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Monday, amid signs of frayed ties in recent months between the two neighbors. It notes that a congratulatory message to leader Kim Jong-un on the 76th anniversary of North Korea's founding, Xi said the Workers' Party of Korea, again, the one in charge there, and united North Koreans and promoted vigorous development of the country. It notes that Xi said Kim had led North Korea to achievements in construction and development. He also expressed the hope that Pyongyang would continue to win new and greater victories in the journey of promoting the cause of Korean-style socialism. Now, but it notes that ties between China and North Korea have been having some problems. It says at the same time that North Korea has been stepping up its diplomatic and military efforts with Russia, including the June visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin, his first to Pyongyang in 24 years, Putin vowed to deepen trade and security ties and to support Pyongyang against the United States, while North Korean State News Agency, KCNA, called the relationship a strong strategic fortress for preserving international justice, peace and security, and an engine for accelerating the building of a multipolar world. And again, the agenda for the multipolar world order means overturning what they call the unipolar world order, which is the United States. Now, this is very like this whole development, a continuation of Chinese Communist Party concerns that North Korea is getting closer with Russia. And it seems that part of this concern for the CCP, it wants Russia and North Korea to both be dependent on China. And if they make friends with each other and work closer with each other, well, that means that they don't need China as much. Look, it's a simple question otherwise. Why would a normal country care if its two main allies became close allies with each other as well? Normally, you'd think that's just deepening of relations. If Australia and Japan get close to each other, does America criticize them? If Germany and UK get closer together, does America criticize them? So why is China, the Chinese Communist Party, criticizing Russia and North Korea for getting closer with each other? Well, that's one of the key questions here. Now, this actually began back in June. Russian President Vladimir Putin went to North Korea and he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Now, Putin was greeted on the tarmac by Kim and he was flanked by a military guard of honor. Now, BBC said this on June 18. It said, ties between the two pariah states have increased in recent years, especially since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And it said, North Korea needs help with space technology after its recent failure to put a second spy satellite into orbit. They also need for ballistic missiles, by the way, as well as food, fuel, and foreign currency, one of the big ones there. And it said, Russia faces a continued shortage of weapons in its war in Ukraine. And now that ahead of his arrival, Mr. Putin praised Mr. Kim for firmly supporting Moscow's war in Ukraine. And notes in a letter published in North Korean state media, Vladimir Putin promised to build trade and security systems with Pyongyang that are not controlled by the West. And notes as well that Russian President Vladimir Putin also vowed support for Pyongyang's efforts to defend its interests, despite what he called US pressure, blackmail, and military threats. And the article printed, and again, one of North Korea's main mouthpieces. He said the two countries also would continue to resolutely oppose what he described as Western ambitions to hinder the establishment of a multi-polarized world order based on what he calls mutual respect for justice. And again, that's one of the key buzzwords you're gonna be hearing a lot now, multi-polar world order, because that's the agenda both of Russia and of the Chinese Communist Party. Again, the creation of a shared global governance is what you can think of it as. The overturning of the Pax Americana, the peace under America, and the US system of global standards of human rights. Overturning that, and also overturning the US global peacekeeping operations, and establishing instead different regional powers, China, Russia, Europe, the US is just one of many. And again, shared global governance based on equity, but of course, also led by what they call the China model, a system of state socialism. Now, the two countries formed a strategic pact, again, Russia and North Korea, saying both will use all means available for military assistance in the It also included agreements on foreign policy and on trade. So this was pretty much everything, it was government agreements, it was trade agreements, and most importantly, it was a military agreement. And to an extent, even what seemed to be a defense pact, where they vowed to support each other if one country goes to war. Now, North Korea said that this amounted to an Russia didn't go that far as to use that phrase. But for China, the Chinese Communist Party, well, they're the ones who want the alliance, and they don't want Russia to have that with their close ally. Now, the meeting was met with criticisms from the West, as you would expect, as it meant that North Korea would begin helping supply Russia with weapons for its war in Ukraine. And this is important. Some of the world's largest arms dealers are North Korean, it's not well known. But two of the largest arms dealers in the Middle East, for example, including Iran, are North Korean arms dealers. Now, they tend to sell older generation weapons, think like Soviet era type weapons. But that includes small arms, it even includes some missile technology. And Russia, which in its war in Ukraine has been running short of ammunition and guns, well, they need that. Notably, they're even arming troops with like old Soviet era weapons, some going back to even World War II. And so they need those guns, even if they're old, even if they're like, you know, not the best, but they need cheap and large amounts of them. And North Korea is the gateway to get that, and they got it. Now, the deal notably also caused criticism though from South Korea. And South Korea is also one of the world's largest arms dealers, but working again mostly with free world countries. Them getting involved with this would create two counterbalances of one country, North Korea, supplying guns to Iran and Russia and other countries. Well, South Korea, if it gets involved, is even saying it may begin supplying weapons on the other side of the conflict to Ukraine. And they have much better guns and more highly developed ones and modern technology. Now, they haven't gone so far as to actually do this yet, but they said that they might. The Chinese Communist Party, when South Korea said that, the CCP issued a warning stating that doing so would put South Korea in Russia's nuclear crosshairs. A very strange threat from the Chinese Communist Party, given the fact that it works close with Russia in its war, and it was threatening South Korea by proxy while claiming they weren't the ones doing it. Now, this also notably though, brought North Korea and South Korea further into the picture of these growing global conflicts. Now, National Security Journal said this in August. They said, indeed, very few would have expected North and South Korea, half a world away and without direct interest in the conflict, again, Russia, Ukraine, to have taken on such a prominent role in the war. Now, of course, South Korea has not fully committed to this yet, and the technicality of it here is they're technically still at war with North Korea. And so, North Korea getting involved in that conflict, and again, making a defensive agreement with Russia, that again, if North Korea goes to war, Russia gets involved, that means South Korea for them. Now, South Korea, because of pressure from China, they haven't really gone fully in on this yet, but the country is on its way notably to becoming the fourth largest arms exporter by around 2027, the current track it's on. It already has arms deals with the Philippines, Poland, and notably other countries around this whole growing conflict. And so, their position in an interesting way, including working with the US, one of the largest military bases of the United States, notably is located in South Korea, they're positioning themselves, interestingly, to become one of the major players in this developing global conflict. But the Chinese Communist Party is one of the key factors with all of this. The CCP came out with a seemingly odd stance of being unhappy with the warming ties of Russia and North Korea. I'll be talking more about why this is after I come back from a quick break. Welcome back. Is the Chinese Communist Party on the outs? Well, Russia and North Korea have been developing closer ties, especially at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. The two countries formed a new strategic pact back in June, saying that both would use all means available for military assistance in the event of a war. It also included agreements on foreign policy and trade. And again, North Korea now, Russia's at war, what are they doing? Well, they're supplying weapons to Russia. They become one of the major players in it. And Russia, because of this support, no longer has a problem of not having guns and ammunition for its war. North Korea, they need food and they need Western currency. And more importantly, well, they need missile technology. Now, the CCP is really one of the key factors here, though. When the Chinese Communist Party came out with what was, on the surface at least, kind of an odd stance. The Chinese Communist Party was openly and very noticeably unhappy with the warming ties between Russia and North Korea. AP said this in June. They said, with no obvious opinions, China appears to be keeping its distance as Russia and North Korea move closer to each other with a new defense pact that could tilt the balance of power among three authoritarian states. Now, it's an expert say China's leaders are likely fretting over potential loss of influence over North Korea after its leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the deal this week, and how that could increase instability on the Korean Peninsula. China's good little friend that it normally has only going to it, now has a bigger friend. That's a concern here, right? Now, Beijing may also, it says, be struggling to come up with a response to what could be the strongest Russian-North Korean partnership since the Cold War because it has conflicting goals. It says that is keeping peace in the Koreas while countering the United States and its Western allies on the global stage. It's going to bring heat to their region, in other words. Now, like the other key analysis that came out, including from the US State Department, was that the deal between Russia and North Korea could have the Chinese Communist Party also worried. Because why? Well, it could draw the United States and its allies closer in that region to bolster their defenses. Because again, you know, South Korea has a lot of trade deals with China. South Korea is a close ally again with the United States as well. But if North Korea makes a deal with Russia, a defensive agreement, which they already have, and Russia begins infringing upon, you know, kind of the, let's say, security of South Korea by supporting North Korea in exchange with that, while empowering North Korea has direct implications for South Korea. And China, again being one of the close trade partners of South Korea, China, also being the key enabler of the war in Ukraine, is in the middle of this. And so the Chinese Communist Party is gonna have to pick sides. They don't want to do that, at least not with South Korea. The other side of it is also when North Korea makes missile threats, they're gonna, you know, launch nukes. Whenever North Korea does that, the CCP steps in as the, you know, kind of the broker, the voice of reason is how they try to present themselves. And what they do is they negotiate this. They necessitate themselves as the go-between for diplomatic relations with North Korea. And they use that role as a large part to have diplomatic relations with South Korea, because South Korea believes that because of that, that they need China for that. Meanwhile, that's the deal China has with North Korea. And the CCP brokers deals and gets them all kinds of food and other supplies using that role. Now, if North Korea no longer needs China for that, then what happens? That's the big question here. But the dissatisfaction also was noticeable in Chinese media. This is what Alibaba's South China Morning Post had to say with an opinion piece. It said this, July 24th, despite the restrictive nature of the treaty, potential Russian military aid to North Korea poses significant threats to Chinese national security. Again, this is Chinese media, right? They say that China has traditionally used economic leverage to moderate North Korean and Russian behavior with varying success. The new treaty, it says, between Russia and North Korea jeopardizes this balance in several ways. And again, this is the Chinese opinion here, right? It says, first, Russian assistance in military technology to North Korea directly threatens regional stability and China's security interest. It says the treaty mentions cooperation in various scientific and technological fields, many of which could have military applications. This would increase risk to China's national defense and border security. The treaty also, it says, could lead to the perception that North Korea prioritizes its relationship with Russia over ties with China. North Korea doesn't need China as much if it has another friend, right? It says reduced Chinese influence over a neighboring country with nuclear capabilities and minimal internal restrictions could worsen China's security. That's the CCP again, making excuses because they'd like to broker the deals. Now notes that South Korea's proximity to China adds complexity as strengthened North Korean-Russian ties could destabilize the Korean peninsula. Why is that? Well, it's because if China is sided both with Russia and North Korea, and if China, the Chinese Communist Party, is one of the key enablers of the war that North Korea is getting involved with, and if China is a key ally of Russia, which is then supplying weapons technology and other things to North Korea, well, South Korea has to do something about it because North Korea is their biggest threat. Now notes that to safeguard its interests, this is again the Chinese opinion, China must distance itself from the North Korean-Russian alliance and negotiate with Russia to prevent the transfer of nuclear missiles and advanced military technology to North Korea, which is going to make North Korea mad, by the way. Now a couple key points on that. It seems that on one side, the Chinese Communist Party would be very unhappy about the deal bringing more heat to the region. Again, you know, they have the Quad Alliance, the United States, Australia, Japan, India, and also the Philippines now kind of getting involved with that, and Taiwan getting involved with it. All these countries pushing back against the Chinese Communist Party in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Now the U.S. working with NATO is also going to be doing things in the Arctic region to the north and the northeast as well. What happens then to South Korea? Well, they're not really engaged with this. They do have some defense ties with the U.S., but they're kind of in between it. If this pushes South Korea closer to these western defensive alliances against China, well, that is very much against the CCP's interests. And these ties between, again, Russia and North Korea with China kind of caught between the two because it's an ally with both of them. Well, that puts China on their side of the conflict, which risks pushing South Korea more towards, again, the western alliance and away from the CCP. That's the big concern for them. But the Chinese Communist Party is also doing plenty on its own, right? Now, especially since it's holding large-scale military drills with Russia right now in the Sea of Japan. The Chinese Communist Party, when it says that it's going to bring heat to the region, the CCP does that on its own, right? So there's another concern here. What is it? Well, the main concern seems to be this other part, that this deal could result in North Korea valuing its new ties with Russia over its ties to the CCP. And again, making it more clear to other countries that the Chinese Communist Party is working on an alternate kind of axis against a, let's say, democratic world order, whatever you want to call it. Now, North Korea also took an interesting move after signing this pact with Russia. North Korea started to shun the Chinese Communist Party. RFA said this, North Korea has added more movies and TV shows to its banned list, all the banned entertainment, right? But this time it says they're from China, traditionally considered an ally, not from capitalist enemies, South Korea or the United States, as is usually the case, right? This is a break in trends, in other words. Now, some individuals said this is the first time they've seen a list of Chinese banned videos. North Korea normally does not do that. And it's the movies or drama series produced in Hong Kong or mainland China include titles like Butterfly Lovers and Now, it notes that these shows have been popular among North Koreans for so long that it's hard to imagine that they would, you know, ban them basically. You'd have a hard time finding somebody in North Korea, it says, who has not seen these movies. And so for North Korea to suddenly come out and ban popular shows that again come from China, well, it's a very out of character Now, it notes that they're wondering if this reflects souring ties with China. And one individual pointed out that the border has not fully reopened to trade between the two countries after it was closed during the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a breakdown in relations somewhere along the line, in other words. And again, along with that breakdown of trade, well, North Korea is now turning to Russia for that trade. Now, it notes this trend also continued last month. Kyoto News said August 25th, North Korea took a stance opposing China's plans to install telecommunications facilities near the border, again with North Korea, in a recent email to an international frequency management organization. A rare revelation of Pyongyang's diplomatic actions to express dissatisfaction with Beijing. They're expressing unhappiness with the Chinese Communist Party's doing. Now, it notes, according to an email read by Kyoto News, North Korea also complained that the CCP, China, failed to consult with North Korea about the plans in advance, a sign that the two countries, long known for close economic ties, may have a looming problem in bilateral communication. Now, it notes that this year marks the 75th anniversary of relations between North Korea and China. It's a longtime economic benefactor. But Pyongyang has sought closer ties with Russia, especially in the defense sector, through activities such as sealing a strategic partnership, we mentioned, in June between its leader, Kim Jong-un, and President Vladimir Putin. A move diplomatic sources, again according to Japanese media, in Beijing, said displeased China. Now, look, this growing rift was also seen when North Korea refused the Chinese Communist Party's offer back in July to help rescue its residents during recent floods. They didn't want China's help. And last month, the CCP, well, they pushed back, it seemed. The Chinese Communist Party started making repeated demands that North Korean authorities take back all of their citizens who are working in China. And that's a move, important, right? That would cut into North Korea's economy, but more importantly, it would affect North Korea's ability to get currency that, again, it needs from the outside because of global sanctions. North Korea needs alternate sources of currency. China is the one it goes to for that, because China helps them get around sanctions. But now, again, because of the breakdown with all this, they're not turning to China, they're turning to Russia. Now, it seems that with the recent meetings, North Korea and the Chinese Communist Party, they're signaling that their ties are maybe warming again, right? They're having some kind of ties now, but it's also not clear whether this is being done genuinely or just out of necessity. Because again, they're part of this defensive alliance, this new axis forming. They don't have a whole lot of other options in the world stage. And notably as well, North Korea and Russia are not backing down on any of their new ties with each other. They're continuing all of that. And the Chinese Communist Party seems to be making the best of the situation as it's two former dependent friends are becoming friends with each other against its own interests. Well, everyone, that's all for today. Thank you for joining us. Let me know what you think in the comments. Also, please help share this episode, help us get the word out. As always, please take care of yourselves, stay informed, and stay free. Thank you.