4 factors behind the market decline

You actually lay out four key factors behind the market's decline. Break them down for us. Sure. Well, first we have the aggressive trade policies. That has really created uncertainty. And then we have uncertain monetary policies. A lot of people were expecting no change in rates for most of this year. All of a sudden now people are talking about meeting a 50 basis point rate cut this week. Now, I heard that on TV this past week. I don't think it's coming. But it's a shock to hear such rapid changes in people's attitudes. Also the fact that we don't have that much in M&A or IPO activity, that's upsetting the market. And then we have all this political and economic instability. But I mean, let me be honest here and say that it's just really these trade tariffs, the quick, rapid implementation of trade tariffs, then the pausing, and then the restarting. It creates all this uncertainty in the marketplace. People can't forecast the future, which means modeling doesn't work. And so you don't know exactly how to value companies or stocks at that point. Economists are worried about a recession coming because of the increase in costs associated with tariffs. Now, I think that some of that is misplaced logic because there are alternatives to certain products. I mean, for instance, French wine. I mean, first of all, if you're buying French wine, you're probably not that worried about a trade tariff. But if you are buying French wine and you are a little bit concerned with that, there is wonderful wine from California and then there's wonderful wine even from the Connecticut wine trail. And then, I mean, if you're looking for avocados, I mean, most of some of that is going to be coming from Mexico, but they grow avocados in Florida, they grow them in California. And so there are other alternatives is the point. So I remain fairly optimistic that the economy will continue to grow. I've said before that I think the economy is going to grow between 2 and 2.5 percent. Maybe it's a little bit more like 2 to 2.25 percent, but I think we continue to grow. You mentioned that modeling becomes that much more difficult for strategists, for portfolio managers. So even as you're kind of navigating some of the uncertainty that has really spilled over into the volatility index, the fear gauge index as well, the VIX, where are the top areas that you're seeing investors pile into right now? Well, most recently, you saw a lot of activity going into some of the pharmaceutical stocks, the drug makers, like Merck, for instance. I mentioned that even last time that I was on, that Merck was seeing a lot of activity. The biotechs, that's another area of the market that people have been flooding into because there is relative stability and you don't have to worry as much about the tariffs as far as the drug manufacturers. There's also been a lot of activity in the consumer staples area. Now you're seeing a little bit of that unwind today. So on Friday, it's important to note that we traded all the way down to the 200 day moving average. It was a 10 percent correction and we stopped, like hitting a brick wall. And that attracts a lot of attention. And then you started to see a 90 percent up volume day, which was encouraging. Now are we out of the woods yet? No, I don't think so. But at least it's an encouraging sign until we get more trade tariff announcements, then it becomes a problem. And so what would be your leading plays right now in order to make sure that, you know, even if you do have and you mentioned how we kind of hit that brick wall on the way down? But now what is the next conviction for people to kind of pile into a concerted trade? So for the retail investor, hedge funds are not going to be listening to me. Traders are not going to be listening to me. I think for the retail investor, the self-directed person, you first want to stick with the best quality companies that are out there. Look for solid, strong management companies that are known for their management and that have stability in their marketplace, that are not worried about all sorts of things that are going on in the marketplace. I think if you do that and you sort of leave yourself enough room by starting an initial position to add to it in case the stock actually retreats a little bit, you're feeling pretty good about that. Now what we have done is that we've reduced our exposure to consumer discretionary and technology. It's not an easy decision to make. We like the companies. We're not married to them, but we do like them a lot. But sometimes you really have to make the tough decisions. And so we've raised cash, but we've also broadened out the portfolio into areas of the market that we think have gotten hit, but still represent great long-term potential. So names like Boston Scientific. Now if you take a look at the chart on Boston Scientific, BSX, the stock has done incredibly well over the past few years. But it traded down to its 100-day moving average, hit that like a rock, and bounced. And it's very rare that it happens for that particular company. Another one is Intuitive Surgical. The leader in what they do, they have over 8,000 da Vinci systems in the entire world. Now if you have a hospital that is invested in a da Vinci system, your doctors have been trained on this particular machine. It's not like you're going to be able to choose another machine right away. I mean, you're committed to that infrastructure. Even mechanics, I mean, they don't go from Snap-on to Harbor Freight tools, you know what I mean? And so the last name would be Fair Isaac. Now Fair Isaac has also done incredibly well, again, come down during this period of transition in the market. But I think as you get to worry about where the economy is going, people are going to be looking for more credit. Fair Isaac is just that, it's FICO. So those are three names that I think you could invest in, take an initial position, and feel comfortable with sleeping at night. Just lastly, you mentioned earlier on in the conversation the decision that we're going to get this week from the FOMC, the second meeting of the year. To what extent should investors be taking their cues from the Fed? Not fighting the Fed, but trying to anticipate how they're reading through the data in the Well, I think if you're going to look for cues as to what is going to happen with the Fed, I don't think that's going to really come, because I think the Fed is just as perplexed as to what happens next as the rest of us. Now they're going to try to sort of calm the markets down by saying, you know, we've got this, in other words. But what they do next, I think, is going to probably be a rate cut, maybe in June, maybe a little bit later. But I think that, you know, the slowdown in economic activity is going to probably force their hand. I mean, we have gotten some reduction in inflation, which is positive. But you're not going to get the all-clear waving flags type of signal to, you know, dive back in. For a long-term investor, you have to remain committed to what you're doing. If you're going to be looking at the high momentum names, the app-loving, I'm not the person to ask about app-loving, you know, or even Palantir, because they're just too difficult to understand. But I think if you're going to be doing that, you have to have the financial wherewithal and the capability of taking that kind of risk. So I wouldn't put my entire future on that, but, you know, just be mindful of what you own. Bob, good to have you back here. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.