Fully Restoring U.S.-Taiwan Diplomacy: The Ultimate Card Against China

Could the US and Taiwan soon restore full diplomatic ties, igniting a seismic shift in the Indo-acific? As tensions with China soar, Taiwan stands as the lynch pin of global tech and security. With Trump's bold vision and Congress uniting behind historic bills, is this the ultimate card to counter Beijing's ambitions. Join us as we unpack the stakes in this highstakes geopolitical showdown. In today's context of escalating USChina confrontation, Taiwan's unique and critical role in geostrategic, economic, and technological domains has made it increasingly significant, becoming a primary focal point in the intense competition between the US and China. Taiwan is located at the heart of the Western Pacific's first island chain, connecting Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, serving as a strategic barrier to curb China's expansion into the Pacific. The US views Taiwan as key to maintaining freedom of navigation and regional security in the Indo-acific. While the Chinese Communist Party, CCP, considers Taiwan a critical territory to break through the first island chain and achieve maritime hijgemony. The Taiwan Strait is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, handling over half of global cargo traffic daily. Additionally, it serves as a vital choke point for Middle Eastern oil shipments to East Asia, meaning control over Taiwan equates to control over the energy lifelines of East Asian nations. Taiwan's semiconductor industry holds an irreplaceable position globally, mastering the most advanced manufacturing processes. The US ensures supply chain security and high-tech sectors through technological cooperation and investments. While the CCP facing a technological gap is eager to acquire Taiwan's expertise, hoping to weaken Western technological dominance by controlling Taiwan. Moreover, Taiwan boasts a robust RMD ecosystem and a talent pool that attracts collaboration with global tech giants. The US sees Taiwan as a partner in countering China's technological rise, while the CCP employs united front tactics and espionage to steal cuttingedge technologies. Thus, Taiwan is pivotal in geostrategic terms for Indopacific security and control of the first island chain, economically for dominating global chip supply chains and trade energy routes, and technologically for leading innovation in semiconductors and integrated circuits. The US values Taiwan to safeguard allied security, the free world order, and technological superiority, while the CCP views Taiwan as a core target for unification, breaking geographic containment, and catching up technologically. This intense focus from both sides positions Taiwan at the heart of US China rivalry influencing the global strategic balance. On May 5th this year, the US House of Representatives unanimously passed two Taiwan related bills aimed at easing restrictions on bilateral engagement and supporting Taiwan's participation in international organizations. The first bill, the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act, mandates the State Department to conduct periodic reviews of its guidelines for US engagement with Taiwan and Taiwanese officials. It also requires the State Department to report to Congress every 2 years on these guidelines, identifying opportunities to lift remaining self-imposed limitations on US Taiwan engagement and outlining a plan to do so. Introduced in February by Republican Anne Wagner and Democrats Jerry Connelly and Ted Louu, the bill passed by a voice vote. It still requires Senate approval and the president's signature to become law. After severing ties with Taiwan, officially named the Republic of China, ROC, in 1979, Washington developed guidelines to limit official interactions with Taiwan to avoid provoking the People's Republic of China, PRC, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory. These guidelines include prohibiting senior US executive branch officials, including high-ranking military officers, from visiting Taiwan, while also barring Taiwan's top leaders from traveling to the US meetings between officials from both sides must meet specific requirements such as being held outside official federal buildings or requiring Taiwanese officials to refrain from wearing official uniforms or insignia. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lifted these guidelines in the final month of Donald Trump's first term, but many were reinstated under the Joe Biden administration. The second bill, the Taiwan International Solidarity Act, amends the 2019 Taipei Act, directing the US government to support Taiwan's participation in international organizations and encouraging other countries to strengthen official or unofficial ties with Taiwan. The bill clarifies that UN resolution 2758 passed in 1971, which recognized the PRC as the sole legitimate government of China and expelled representatives of Chiang Kai-shek, then leader of the ROC governing Taiwan, does not address Taiwan's representation in the U and or related organizations. The bill also expands reporting requirements under the Taipei Act to include information on China's efforts to undermine Taiwan's international participation and its relationships with other countries. Both bills in earlier versions passed the House in 2023, but were not taken up by the Senate, necessitating reintroduction after the new Congress convened on January 3rd. The unanimous passage reflects a bipartisan consensus in Congress on the Taiwan issue, comprehensively strengthening strategic cooperation between the US and Taiwan. As early as Trump's first term before taking office as president-elect, he spoke with Taiwanese President Saiing Wen on December 2nd, 2016, marking the first direct conversation between a US president or president-elect and a Taiwanese president since the US severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979. This event broke long-standing diplomatic conventions. During his first term, Trump facilitated significant arm sales to Taiwan, including F-16V fighter jets, Harpoon missiles, highars, and M1 A2 tanks, totaling over $18 billion. These sales significantly enhanced Taiwan's air defense, maritime defense, and asymmetric warfare capabilities. Beyond bolstering Taiwan's self-defense, these actions strengthened US strategic support for Taiwan amid growing US China tensions, altering the long-standing military imbalance in the Taiwan Strait. Since the new Trump administration took office, it has implemented measures such as reclaiming control of the Panama Canal, pursuing Greenland's reintegration, strengthening Indo-Pacific partnerships with Japan and India, reducing or withdrawing US defense forces in Europe, and even mediating a Russia Ukraine ceasefire, all aimed at comprehensively containing the CCP. Looking at the first island chain, it is evident that South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines host US military bases and troops. While Taiwan, the most critical link facing the greatest CCP pressure, lacks a US military presence. Thus, rapidly enhancing Taiwan's self-defense capabilities has become an urgent priority for the security of the First Island chain. Recently, Trump publicly criticized Nixon's China policy. China's been ripping us off many years, so maybe something should be thought about. you know, little bit of retribution. China's been ripping us off for many years, ever since they started. To me, I think it was the worst thing that Richard Nixon ever did. And it was said, you know, he's the one that got it started and they've taken advantage of. Some observers interpret this as a signal that the Trump administration is preparing for a comprehensive decoupling from China. In this context, how will US Taiwan relations be handled? Let's examine expert opinions. Germant Liilari, a retired US Air Force officer, visiting scholar at National Changi University and National Defense University and guest researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research published a report on March 2nd titled Ensuring Taiwan Security, the best feasible options. The report reveals that despite the CCP's pressure on Taiwan through espionage, united front tactics, military exercises, cyber attacks, economic coercion, and diplomatic isolation, Taiwanese people have not become more pro-CCCP. According to a December 2024 National Changi University poll, 76% of Taiwanese support maintaining the status quo or pursuing independence, while support for unification with the CCP dropped from 26.1% in 2018 to 13.3% today. This has led the CCP to lose confidence in peaceful unification. In response, the CCP has taken measures including legal threats. In June 2024, the CCP updated laws to strengthen punishment of Taiwan independence advocates, explicitly allowing the death penalty for those supporting Taiwan's independence or national division. Military pressure. Under article 8 of the 2005 anti-section law, if peaceful unification is deemed impossible, the CCP may use non- peaceful means to defend its sovereignty. The CCP believes increased coercion will force Taiwan to submit, but Taiwanese resolve for freedom and independence remains unshaken. As a result, the risk of war is growing, and Taiwan must adopt measures beyond traditional taboss to respond. The report identifies Taiwan's main challenges: insufficient defense preparedness. In 2024, KMT and TPP legislators froze budgets and cut funding for submarines, drones, and other weapons, weakening defense. Taiwan's defense budget is only 2.45% 45% of GDP, below the 3% target for 2025. Of Taiwan's 1.66 million reserveists, only 7% have received training with short durations, 1 to two weeks every 2 years, inadequate to counter CCP threats. CCP's invasion timeline. The CCP may follow a planned invasion timeline, requiring Taiwan and the US to adjust strategies to delay CCP actions. The report proposes six solutions with Taiwan focusing on two key points. One, increase defense budget. Urge opposition parties to stop obstructing budgets to ensure defense spending growth. Propose allocating $20 billion annually from Taiwan's 775.8 billion foreign exchange reserves to defense, raising the budget to 5% of GDP, approximately 40 billion. The DPP should organize recalls of 3240 pro-CCCP opposition legislators to restructure the legislature and advance these budgets. Two, strengthen reserveist training. Currently, only 116,000 of Taiwan's 1.5 million reserveists receive training annually. The report suggests training 1 million reserveists yearly for at least 30 days, referencing Israel's model. 465,000 reserveists trained for 42 days annually. Restore mandatory conscription to 2 years, currently one year. enforce stricter recruitment standards and increase active duty forces, currently 188,000. For the US, four measures are proposed. One, update the authorization for use of military force, AUMF. In 1955, Congress passed the Formosa Joint Resolution authorizing President Eisenhower to use US forces to protect Formosa, Taiwan, the Pescadoris, and related territories. This resolution is similar to the 2001 AUMF which authorized President Bush to wage the global war on terror. Updating the AUMF to apply to Taiwan would grant Trump greater flexibility to counter CCP aggression and strengthen deterrence. Two, resign the Mutual Defense Treaty MDT. ressign a bilateral or multilateral including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines defense treaty reviving the 1954 Northeast Asia Treaty Organization NATO proposed by Secretary of State John Foster Dulles with the Philippines as NATO plus one. The US Japan ro trilateral security pact already lays the groundwork for this. Three, make Taiwan a US territory. Options include non-incorporated territories, EIG, Guam, non-incorporated territories without an organic act, E G American Samoa, or ideally a compact of free association, CFA, like the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palao. These freely associated states, FAS, are sovereign UN members with bilateral CFAs under which the US is responsible for their defense and security. Four, make Taiwan a US state, incorporate Taiwan as a US state. This is not far-fetched. In the 1850s, two US diplomats at the Formosa consulate proposed this policy. On Taiwan's side, the Liching Tay administration is taking proactive steps. A grassroots movement to recall pro-CCCP opposition legislators is gaining momentum. President lie has also stated, "Expand purchases from the US to reduce the trade deficit. The Ministry of National Defense has submitted a military procurement list and all procurements will proceed actively." On the US side, all but the last proposal are feasible with each option bringing US Taiwan relations closer, though with increasing difficulty. This report reflects the high priority that Taiwan's government and US political circles place on US Taiwan relations. Given the bipartisan voting patterns on Taiwan related bills in Congress and Trump's personal stance, a major breakthrough in US Taiwan relations, such as reestablishing diplomatic ties or restoring the ROC's legitimate status in the U, and is reasonably anticipated in the near future. At that point, the US and its Indoacific allies could complete a comprehensive strategy to contain communist China, achieving the desired effect. The CCP would face two choices: reform or collapse. The Chinese people may also seize this opportunity to break free from communist authoritarian rule and achieve a comprehensive renewal. We welcome your comments and unique opinions or suggestions. Thanks for you watching. We'll see you next time.