獨家👑德總理戳破「皇帝的新衣」 | 現有的福利國家模式已無法再靠經濟產出維持📉💸🏛️

On August 23rd, at Germany's ruling party, the CDU party conference, German CDU chairman Friedrich Merz dropped a bombshell. He stated bluntly that Germany's current welfare state model can no longer be sustained by economic output. This statement quickly caused a huge stir. The discussion on whether the welfare society is sustainable has long existed in academia, media, and the public, but it often remained just public opinion. Now, this sensitive argument was publicly raised by the leader of a major ruling party, like exposing "the emperor's new clothes," an unspoken truth everyone was aware of. Merz's speech not only challenged politically correct taboos, but also raised new questions for the world. What tipping point has Germany's welfare system reached? What economic realities and social conflicts does this reflect? In this episode of "German Mirror," we'll explore this deeply. At the CDU party conference, Chairman Merz gave a blunt speech. Our current welfare state can no longer be sustained by the current economic output. He called for rapid welfare system reform and promised not to raise taxes on SMEs during his term. Merz pointed out that Germany not only faces economic weakness but is also in a deep structural crisis. The competitiveness of many industries has declined, especially lagging in price competition. Germany is currently governed by the center-right CDU in coalition with the center-left SPD. Merz admitted that cutting social welfare is a difficult issue for the SPD. But he urged both sides to set aside differences and face the challenge together. This statement touched a raw nerve with the SPD. For the center-left SPD, social welfare is an almost untouchable bottom line. SPD chairman Lars Klingbeil responded, not ruling out tax hikes on higher earners to sustain the system. And the leader of the SPD youth organization was even clearer, if reforms only focus on cutting welfare, the SPD will not compromise. In Western democracies, welfare beneficiaries form a large voter base. Leaders of all parties are unwilling to offend these voters. Cutting or reforming welfare has always been a political taboo. By publicly raising this sensitive issue, Merz may be the first major leader to touch this sensitive topic. The backdrop for this debate is Germany's prolonged economic downturn. Europe's former economic engine is now struggling. In 2023, Germany's GDP fell by 0.3%. In 2024, it shrank another 0.2%. This is the first back-to-back annual decline of the 21st century. The latest forecast shows Germany's GDP might fall again by 0.3% in Q2 2025. Meanwhile, massive welfare spending is becoming a heavy burden. In 2024, welfare spending first exceeded €1.3454 trillion, accounting for 31.2% of the GDP. As the population ages and unemployment rises, this figure is set to climb higher. Against this backdrop, Merz's statement exposing the "emperor's new clothes" is both a warning to German society and signals the start of an intense political struggle. For a long time, Germany's welfare model was seen as Europe's standard. Universal healthcare, pensions, unemployment benefits, and various subsidies created a solid safety net, supporting post-war prosperity and stability. However, with an aging population, the pandemic's impact, the war in Ukraine, the refugee crisis, energy crisis, and global competition, the burden on this system has grown heavier. According to a report from Germany's ARD television, about 5.4 million people in Germany receive citizen's benefits. Among them, 1.9 million who are able to work choose not to. In the last two years, the benefit standard rose 24% to €563, a rate that outpaced the average wage growth. By law, after applying for citizen's benefits, not only do they receive this payment, but rent, heating, and health insurance are also paid by the government. A 2024 study by the Munich-based Ifo Institute shows Germany's 2024 minimum wage is €12.41 per hour. A full-time worker earning minimum wage, after taxes, insurance, and living costs are deducted, has a net income only €402 higher than someone on benefits. This small difference severely weakens the motivation for low-income groups to work. Ifo economist Andreas Peichl further points out that in some cases, when a worker's income increases, their take-home pay can actually decrease due to taxes and insurance. In certain cases, income from overtime or part-time work is almost entirely offset by taxes and insurance deductions. Perhaps voices from the ground level can better reveal the issue's reality. In Diepersdorf, the owner of an online retail company complains. Even with very flexible hiring terms, it's hard to attract applicants. The company is willing to hire inexperienced people, starting them at minimum wage, with a raise after the trial period. They even offer positions for just one day a week, but applicants often just go through the motions. We spend one to two hours on interviews, but the person disappears after the interview. It's as if they're just checking a box for the agency to continue receiving benefits. This leads to chronic staff shortages at the company. IT programmers have to temporarily pack goods in the factory. The owner himself often has to fill in. The company's factory manager says bluntly, "Citizen's benefits are too easy to get and the amount is too high." "This is one of the reasons our company can't find employees." "Some people wake up early for overtime every day," "while others relax at home on benefits. It's not fair." Similar difficulties also appear in traditional industries. In Dresden, a bakery owner told a reporter helplessly, "We used to have three branches." "Three months ago, we had to close one of them." "The reason was a lack of staff." Merz's speech may seem like a political test, but it actually exposes German society's deepest conflict: the rift between weak economic growth and the rising welfare burden. As this rift widens, what choice will Germany make? In fact, the problems Germany is facing are a shared dilemma for most high-welfare Western countries. For those who cannot work or need urgent help, the welfare system is undoubtedly a necessary safety net. However, high welfare often comes with high taxes. To some extent, this creates a negative feedback loop. High welfare might encourage getting something for nothing, while high taxes can penalize hard work. Overly generous and easily accessible benefits can weaken the motivation of those able to work. Ultimately, this leads to unsustainable welfare costs and a society that cannot continue. Viewers, what are your thoughts on the welfare system? Please feel free to leave a comment and discuss. Thanks for watching, and see you next time.